Comments on: Paradise Found Again?

By: Melvin Nieves

Melvin Nieves — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 02:31:07 +0000

Texas may be a bandbox, but Bradley’s park adjusted OPS+ of 163 led the league. And yes, he was surrounded by great hitters, but how much does that affect him, really? Maybe he becomes the 2nd or 3rd best hitter in the league. For the price the Padres will pay, that’s a pretty good player.

And hitting with runners in scoring position isn’t a skill. From year to year, it has a .06 R-squared correlation. Almost completely random.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-control-hitters-have-over-everything/

By: Ray

Ray — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 04:14:49 +0000

He wouldn’t be replacing Venable or Blanks, but likely AJ.

By: websoulsurfer

websoulsurfer — Tue, 29 Sep 2009 02:32:20 +0000

Bradley was a DH surrounded by some very good hitters playing in a bandbox in Texas. 24.3% less hits in Petco than Rangers Ballpark. So that .321 there is a .281. His best season ever translates to a .280 in SD, or about his career average.

In San Diego he would be playing LF or RF in the worst hitters park in baseball surrounded by a much less talented group of hitters.

If he hit .277(his career average) over the 90-100 games he would play in a season as a Padre I would be surprised. His power numbers would certainly decrease. Which is scary from a guy that has hit just 11 hrs per season on average.

So a guy that at his best hit 22 home runs would be a .270-.280 hitter with 10 hr or so. Yes he will walk enough to have a pretty good OBP, but that doesn’t cut it from a run producing position. I don’t CARE what the #4 or #5 hitters OBP is, I care how many runs he drives in. I care what his batting average is with men in scoring position. I care how many home runs he hits.

Career, Bradley is a .259 hitter with RISP and a .240 hitter with RISP & 2 out. With a man on 3B he has hit .194.

This season has been worse. .205 with RISP and .200 with RISP and 2 outs. With a man on 3rd and less than 2 outs he has hit a robust .111.

Add to that the fact that he is a below average fielder and I don’t get the appeal.

I just do not see how a guy like that is an improvement over either Blanks or Venable.

By: Ray Lankford

Ray Lankford — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 22:45:42 +0000

You’re right about his adjusted wOBA, which makes me sound a bit hyperbolic, but I have a problem with no power players (call it the Dave Roberts effect), so I stand by my comments.

By: Melvin Nieves

Melvin Nieves — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 21:42:37 +0000

I just looked up Gwynn’s park adjusted wOBA, he’s at .330. Not ideal, but I’m not sure he creates that big of a hole in centerfield.

By: Melvin Nieves

Melvin Nieves — Fri, 25 Sep 2009 11:40:05 +0000

Websoulsurfer has added his thoughts into the conversation:

http://websoulsurfer.blogspot.com/2009/09/do-padres-want-milton-bradley.html

He brings up similar arguments about other Padres players being better options in a lot of ways than Milton. I agree. Although I also think he’s underestimating Bradley’s potential offensive contributions. Certainly Bradley had a down year in 2009, but he was the best hitter in the league when healthy in 2008. I think he’ll bounce back a bit from his down year, especially when a .378 OBP is “down” for him.