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“I don’t know if we need to do a lot this winter”

September 25th, 2009 by Melvin

…Says Kevin Towers.

A quick look at the Padres’ Pythagorean win-loss record indicates otherwise. It measures team performance more accurately than regular win-loss by using runs scored and runs allowed. The Padres Pythagorean record puts them at 63-90. Paints a different picture than their current actual 70-83 record, huh?

Also: the pitchers as a whole have an 84 ERA+!

Shout out to Gaslamp Ball.

Posted in misc | 15 Comments »

15 Responses to ““I don’t know if we need to do a lot this winter””

  1. Ray Lankford says:

    Even if you throw out everything other than August and September, this team is still only playing expected .500 ball.

    I hope Towers doesn’t really think this team is set without a number one, a true centerfielder, or a decent catcher.

  2. Lorenzo says:

    You really have to ignore the pythagorean data for this team. It works for a team that’s consistent throughout the year, but one bad stretch can warp the data, and boy, did the Padres have one bad stretch!

    Their first 50 games, the Padres were 25-25, and scored nearly as many as they gave up. The next 50 in June and July, they were 13-37 and were grossly outscored. They lost Peavy after his victory on June 8, then Young after his loss on June 14. Everth and Hundley were already on the disabled list, and in that period the lost Blanco, relying on two minor league catchers for the second year in a row.

    They then lost Rodriguez at short and tried to fill in with a couple journeymen who were terrible. Then they lost Gregerson and Eckstein while trying to replace their 1 & 2 starters, while cleaning out the bullpen of Duaner et al.

    With a jury-rigged starting crew, minor leaguers behind the plate, inadequate defense up the middle and a bullpen under reconstruction, it’s no wonder they went 13-37.

    In the most recent 54 games, the team is 33-21, despite going 1-6 against the Cardinals in August, when the Cards went 20-6. They now have their future SS, a quality centerfielder in Venable, who’s shown some power, a 30 homer guy in right in Blanks, have two lefies in the rotation, a promising starter in Latos, a potential closer in Gregerson, and a number of power arms to look at next spring.

    None of that shows up within the overall pythagorean calculation. All because the Padres put three different teams on the field this year.

    • Good stuff. The team that begin the year certainly isn’t the team that ended the year. Though it does seem that next year’s squad will look a lot like the guys who ended this year.

      However, the Padres’ second half Pythagorean record stands at 30-36. I know the team is different than even the one from the all star break, but this does deserve a mention.

  3. Sure glad Pythagoras never played baseball.

    TRUE performance IS win-loss, not some formula. Sorry.

    Anything else is just a discussion of what actually happened.

    • When projecting forward, would you rather use more information or less?

    • I am just curious because I have not checked it out, but were any of the Pythagorean win-loss records actually represent what has happened?

      If so what percentage of them are correct?

    • Ray says:

      Of the projected playoff teams, the Phillies, Red Sox, and Cardinals are a game off, the Rockies are two off, Angels and Dodgers four, Tigers five, Yankees eight, and the Twins are right on the dot.

  4. RDoigs says:

    I’m never about absolutes when it comes to defining stats.

    If you can’t step aside from the numbers, you’ll never be able to measure the impact of guys like Einstein on a ball club.
    Pythagoras, WAR, OPS throw em all our and watch the games. Find me a stat that measures heart and I’ll show you the way to predict a winner.

  5. didi says:

    On July 28, the Padres RS v. RA was 366 v. 512.
    Since then, the Padres have scored 257 runs while giving up 245 runs while going 33-23 in WL column. A run differential of only 12 runs certainly isn’t an indicator that the team would have gone 10 games over .500 during that span. So, yeah, we’ve gotten lucky but we’ll take it.

    The Padres still needs to score more runs and give up fewer with better pitching, and that at least is a thing to do in the off season.

    • I don’t know if you saw Didi, but I calculated the Padres’ second half Pythagorean W-L.

      30-36

    • didi says:

      What do you consider second half? Post ASB or from game #82 on?

      I still can’t believe that KT is of the opinion that’s the title of this entry. I assume he’s just blowing up smokes to the media. As you mentioned the pitching is still poor even with the recent success of the bullpen.

      Thanks for the water splash to the face…gotta wake up and not be buoyed by a little success.

    • I used the All-Star break, which Baseball-Reference considered second half. Just re-calculated with 70 games and got 33-37.

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