Padres bloggin' since 2007

2009 Marcels Depression Inducers / Projections

November 29th, 2008 by Ray

Having brought you Tom Tango’s fan scouting report, we now present the Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System, or simply Marcel 2009. In plain speak, here are projections for your/our 2009 San Diego Padres. At least, the players still on the team as of this writing.

PITCHERS ERA K/9 K/BB FIP
J. Peavy 3.25 9.0 3.0 3.45
C. Young 3.59 8.2 3.0 4.05
C. Baek 4.43 6.3 2.2 4.37
J. Geer 4.07 6.8 2.0 4.31
W. Leblanc 4.92 6.9 1.8 5.11
H. Bell 3.58 8.3 2.6 3.58
M. Adams 3.72 8.2 2.7 4.03
C. Meredith 3.74 6.8 2.8 3.61
C. Hensley 4.27 6.0 1.5 4.35
J. Thatcher 4.73 6.8 1.9 4.60
J. Hampson 4.67 5.9 1.7 4.43
C. Reineke 4.35 7.1 1.8 4.33

FIP by the way stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It uses strikeouts, walks, and home runs, 3 results all pitchers have direct control over, to evaluate performance. It is scaled to look like ERA so it’s nice and easy.

HITTERS AVG OBP SLG OPS
N. Hundley .260 .316 .401 .717
A. Gonzalez .284 .356 .494 .850
M. Antonelli .259 .338 .410 .747
T. Denker .270 .345 .449 .794
E. Gonzalez .270 .331 .396 .727
K. Greene .239 .291 .408 .700
L. Rodriguez .258 .317 .353 .669
K. Kouzmanoff .264 .316 .441 .756
C. Headley .272 .343 .429 .772
S. Hairston .253 .319 .459 .779
J. Gerut .282 .342 .462 .804
W. Venable .272 .345 .414 .759
B. Giles .270 .363 .409 .771

These stats were all compiled using Fangraphs.com, a Sacrifice Bunt endorsed website. Fangraphs also features another series of projections by Lord Bill James. We chose Marcel for reasons of totality: it simply projects more players. And these two are definitely independent projections. While some are eerily close, others are far off.

Where Marcel predicts Jake Peavy with a 3.25 E.R.A. and 9.00 K/9, James has the Peavs at 3.26 and a 9.00 K/9. Not all players are so close. Marcel predicts Chase Headley posting a .772 O.P.S. where James puts him more than 75 points higher at .848. James also sees Will Venable at .688, 71 points lower than Marcel.

Clearly, prognostications should be taken for what they are, especially since Marcels is touted by creator Tom Tango as “the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible.” But let’s assume that this are true predictions. What/who jumps out?

(Besides Travis Denker. WTF?)

Posted in statistics | 5 Comments »

5 Responses to “2009 Marcels Depression Inducers / Projections”

  1. On the plus side, last year’s projections got my hopes up only to let me down easy like a fall off the jungle gym.

    Hopefully these will be just as wrong the other direction.

    edit: except for Denker.

  2. william says:

    is it bad when a guy you got off of waivers, projects as your third best hitter?

    Maybe Paul DePodesta was on to something when he said, “hey at least we get a great waiver position” ..

    He knew what was up.

  3. [...] in the outfield, with Burke owning 500 innings experience in centerfield. This leaves Denker, who projects to be a monster, left needing a big Spring [...]

Leave a Reply

Search Posts


The Sacrifice Bunt on Facebook The Sacrifice Bunt on Twitter

Categories


Sacrifice Bunt Shop

Sacrifice Bunt Shop

Translate