You might have noticed recently that the Padres’ league home run leader Adrian Gonzalez was not included in an online poll about the forthcoming home run derby.

Darren Smith apparently mentioned the oversight on air, which I have been unable to confirm since I refuse to subjugate myself to listening to XX 1090.

I didn’t see it mentioned in that Gaslamp Ball thread linked above, so I’m not sure if it was reported on air, but it is worth pointing out that the poll itself has no bearing on which players actually participate in the contest.

According to the statement printed directly below the online ballot:

Poll results will in no way determine the actual participants of the 2009 State Farm Home Run Derby, since player participation is solely at the discretion of the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball

Gonzalez’s inclusion in the home run derby was hotly contested last year. Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun was selected over Adrian as the final NL participant, despite sitting tied for 4th in home runs and seeing slightly more than half his opportunities for homers in a pitchers’ park.

Patrick Courtney, spokesman for the commissioner’s office, corroborated the selection rules:

Asked who decides which players are selected, Courtney said Tuesday, “We work together with ESPN, (Commissioner) Bud Selig, a committee of people.”

Gonzalez, as with any bid for a spot on the home run or all-star squad from a Padre, has an uphill battle. The Padres play in the most extreme pitcher friendly ballpark, and in one of the smallest media markets in the nation.

Hopefully, ballpark and league adjusted statistics will become the norm when measuring ballplayer contributions, but they aren’t right now. Instead we’re stuck with simplistic, misleading counting statistics like home runs and RBIs. There’s not much we can do much about the market size of San Diego.

Strangely, Padres.com currently displays a photo of Adrian Gonzalez with the caption “Enjoying a career year, Gonzalez needs your vote.” Just below is a link titled “Vote for derby participants,”  which leads to the famed ballot lacking any mention of our boy.

Not selected him last year was unfortunate. Not selecting the front-running league home run champ to for the damn home run derby this year is a joke. I have a hard time expecting such an oversight this year, but I also hope the team will step up its marketing efforts behind Adrian. Hopefully, since the actual selections are made internally, they already are.

It is also my hope Padres fans step up the pressure publicly. With the impending trade of Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez is clearly the face of the franchise. His participation in such a well viewed event brings recognition for him, and our favorite team.

Let’s be those obnoxious big market fans. Lets make a stink about it. Ok, you don’t have to be too obnoxious if you don’t want to. But it’s highly encouraged!

To help, I put together a little something something for your blog sidebar for forum signature. Below it is the HTML code to copy and paste. The photo is licensed under Creative Commons by Dirk Hansen.

Large:
<a href=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/1245/adrian-gonzalez-for-home-run-derby-taking-matters-into-our-own-hands/”><img src=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/blog/wp-content/2009/06/gonzalez4derby_large.png” alt=”Adrian Gonzalez for Home Run Derby” width=”300″ height=”224″ /></a>

Small:
<a href=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/1245/adrian-gonzalez-for-home-run-derby-taking-matters-into-our-own-hands/”><img src=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/blog/wp-content/2009/06/gonzalez4derby_small.png” alt=”Adrian Gonzalez for Home Run Derby” width=”200″ height=”150″ /></a>

Brian Giles. At least, he should be.

We’ve written before on the ridiculousness of this award, and I expect this year to be no different.

That sounds harsh, so let me explain.

If Adrian Gonzalez doesn’t win this year’s M.V.Padre award. I will be greatly surprised. He hit 36 home runs, drove in 119 runs, raised most all of his important numbers, and even won a Gold Glove. He’s a legit player and he hits in one of the most ridiculous stadiums in the league. But he wasn’t the best player on the team this year.

Offensively, it could go either way. Adrian leads the standard categories, jumping above Giles in home runs, RBI, doubles, slugging, and OPS. In the fancier categories, Giles catches back up, leading Adrian in wRAA, wOBA, and EqA, though he’s really not that far up on Adrian in most. Where Giles pulls away is on defense.

When it was announced, I wrote briefly on the ridiculousness of Adrian’s Gold Glove win. Adrian is not the best fielding baseball in the National League. Far from it. Lance Berkman, with a UZR of 11.2, was the best in the National League. Down the list at -7 was Adrian.

Giles, meanwhile, was one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball. And when this is taken into consideration with his offensive contributions, the choice becomes very clear.

Fangraphs has recently added a value section, which includes the following:

Batting – wRAA (Runs Above Average) with a park adjustment.

Fielding – The sum of a player’s UZR.

Replacement – The replacement level adjustment set at 20 Runs / 600 PA.

Positional – The positional adjustment set using Tangotiger’s values (see this link)

Value Runs – The sum of Batting, Fielding, Replacement, and Positional.

Value Wins – Value Runs converted to a wins scale.

Dollars – Value Wins converted to the following dollar scale: 2008 – $4.5m / win

This how is Giles and Adrian stack up:

I threw in Gerut for some perspective. When all things are considered, Giles was so much the best player on the team that Adrian is closer to Gerut. And this is to take nothing away from Gerut, who had a surprisingly fantastic season.
Adrian is absolutely the face of the franchise. He’s the Padres first transcendent hitter since Petco opened, and he took the Gold Glove away from such players as Berkman and Albert Pujols. That is exceptional company to keep, and I don’t mean to come off as iconoclastic. Giles was simply the Most Valuable Padre in 2008.

(With all due respect to Jake Peavy, the most potent part of the offense.)

Cheers to our boy.

My unofficial, probably not very accurate survey of defensive metrics puts Adrian as a good, but not best in the league first baseman. His offensive goodness and his success with the stupid fielding percentage stat probably helped attract attention as well.

Still though, cool news. No Yankees, you can’t have him for in exchange for a bag of baseballs. He’s ours, you spoiled clowns.

Maddux wins one too. No surprise there. How can he just keep being so good? The voters are screwed next with Maddux retired and no shoe in.

R. update: I hate to have to do this, but this was a bad call.

The Gold Gloves have long been a gag gift, highlighted by Palmeiro winning the award for first baseman in 1999 despite playing 28 games at the position.

Adrian was not the best defensive first baseman in the N.L. According to the Fielding Bible, he wasn’t in the top 10. Using their plus/minus system (which tracks the number of plays made more or less than the average fielder), the Fielding Bible ranked Mark Teixeira the best first baseman in baseball at +24. The best N.L. first baseman was Pujols at +20. Other National Leaguers in the top ten are Joey Votto (+19), Lance Berkman (+18), and Todd Helton (+6). Casey Kotchman’s in there too, so I guess he and Teixeira combine to make one National Leaguer. Either way, you’ll notice that a name’s missing from this list.

I love Adrian, but our principles are most important when they’re inconvenient, right?

I’m sorry.

According to Tom Krasovic of the UT and AZcentral.com.

Scribner is a 28th rounder who turned into a gem for the Diamondbacks’ full season A ball South Bend Silver Hawks.  The reliever struck out 52 batters in just 34 innings this year, walking only 8 without allowing a single home run.  His performance was impressive enough to make the Midwest League all-star team, and earned him a promotion to high A ball.

Though Scribner did not make either the Baseball Prospectus or Baseball America top 10s, it is not uncommon for pitching prospects to seemingly come out of nowhere.  See Garrison, Steve, whom the Padres received as a throw-in from the Scott Linebrink deal.

Scribner is a bit old at 22, so hopefully he’ll continue his fast track up the Padres’ system.  The team doesn’t have much need for a pinch hitter like Tony Clark this year, so I see the deal as something for nothing.  Bryan Myrow gives you everything Clark does, and now the team has a roster spot for Young or Bard and additional depth in low levels of the system.

Though if CY gets hurt again, we might have to walk Chris of the field by stacking people on top of each other.

EDIT 7/18: MB has a couple considerations I didn’t make.  He applies minor league park effects and and Scribner’s career numbers.  They’re definitely worth including.

Since the beginning of the Petco era, the Padres have had one player finish in the top ten for MVP voting every year.

In 2004, Mark Loretta finished 9th, following a season in which he finished third in the league with a batting average of .335, fourth in the league in doubles, and first in sacrifice flies. He posted an OPS+ of 138 this year.

In 2005, Brian Giles finished 9th, following a season in which he finished third in the league with an OBP of .423, first in walks, and sixth with an OPS+ of 146.

In 2006, Trevor Hoffman finished 10th, following a year in which he lead the league in saves and finished second in the Cy Young voting. He ended the season with an ERA+ of 189 and a WHIP of 0.97.

In 2007, Jake Peavy finished 7th following a season in which he lead the league in ERA, wins, strike outs, and WHIP. He won the Cy Young award and rounded out the season with an ERA+ of 159.

The only other team in the entire National League who can match this boast is the St. Louis Cardinals. Albert Pujols alone has finished in the top ten every year, winning the award in 2005. He was joined by our own Hollywood Jim in 2004. Four teams have had a top 10 finalist three times: Atlanta, Houston, Philadelphia, and the Florida Marlins.

With this type of streak, the question in front of us becomes “Can we maintain?” Will the Padres be able put a player in the top 10 again? If they do, who will it be? Khalil? Adrian? Jake again? Let us know what you think.

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Kevin Goldstein’s Padres prospect list is out and holy shitballs, Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli are five star prospects! There have been rumblings that these two are solid yet not top caliber guys. Goldstein disagrees, and ranks our top boys with the likes of Andy LaRoche, Cabrera trade centerpiece Cameron Maybin, and Dan Haren bounty Carlos Gonzalez.

Headley and Antonelli will find their place around the young core of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Adrian Gonzalez, and Khalil Greene.

The “perfect world projection” is the most fun part of Goldstein’s analysis, as our imaginations go wild with expectations of what might be. Goldstein expects middle of the order offensive production from Headley, while his position on the diamond is still to be determined.

He sees Antonelli as:

An offense-oriented second baseman who can hit leadoff, smack 15-20 home runs a year, and steal 25-30 bases.

If I were a cartoon my eyes would be wide open with dollar signs flashing at these projections. The dollar signs of course refer to the untold advertising riches reaped by the proprietor of a blog dedicated to the newest MLB dynasty, the San Diego Padres.

Here’s the final list:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Chase Headley, 3B/OF
2. Matt Antonelli, 2B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Matt Latos, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Drew Miller, RHP
5. Cesar Carrillo, RHP
6. Drew Cumberland, SS
7. Wade LeBlanc, LHP
8. Will Inman, RHP
9. Kyle Blanks, 1B
Two-Star Prospects
10. Kellen Kulbacki, OF
11. Mitch Canham, C

The next surprise is Kyle Blanks as a two star at number 9. Though the star system is designed to eliminate the near pointless debates on minor list order discrepancies, I have to say I expected a high ceiling guy like Blanks a bit further up the list. Goldstein identifies Blanks’ larger, limiting physique as his biggest hindrance. Goldstein also clarifies the ranking by mentioning scouts’ general disagreement on Blanks’ projection.

The current minor league system is a testament to the abilities Sandy Alderson and Grady Fuson have to improve our team’s future. The turnaround these two (among others) engineered in three short years is more than commendable.

As a small market organization, we are lucky to have smart business men in charge who keep us competitive with our more abundant neighboring markets. I’ve said it before, but what an encouraging time it is to be a fan.

PS, If any Baseball Prospectus bigwigs are reading this, let me make up for my blatant ripoff of your content with a no kickback endorsement of Baseball Prospectus’ subscription offerings. Now holla at us in our new poll! Who should be after Latos?

Khalil Greene Named 2007 Padres MVP

…when captain .290 OBP is the team’s most valuable player? Why can’t we move past these homecoming king valuations when determining the most worthwhile contributors to a professional club?

I don’t know if it’s the poor use of poor to begin with counting statistics like RBIs that gets to me the most, or if it’s my sneaking suspicion that blond hair and good looks are what compound the over-rating of Khalil Greene.

I’m not saying he should be actively shopped this winter. That usually gives away the leverage necessary to make a good trade. But if there is / was a similar package to that of Nick Swisher, and I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibilities, I think you have to take it. No question.

Who would replace him, you ask?

Granted, there isn’t anyone in the farm who is ready for the job, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t good options (formerly) out there. When only the best defensive shortstop this side of Ozzie Smith was available for mere pennies on the dollar, that answers that question.

Adam Everett at $2.8 million is the true definition of a moneyball signing, even when one considers the .299 career OBP (coincidently higher than the 2007 numbers posted by a certain Padres shortstop). Everett was undervalued in the market this year, and the Padres should have jumped on him.

This would leave an overhyped Greene available for trade, while gaping holes begging for young talent exist in center, or a corner outfield spot (Giles to left? Anyone? Not saying he needs it at this point, but it’s something worth planning for).

Back to the MVP

VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player is a nice stat for our use here. It incorporates all aspects of run scoring for a hitter, can be used for pitchers to compare with hitters, and adjusts for the importance and difficulty of each position on defense. It does not adjust for defensive ability however, so I would give a slight additional edge to Gonzalez, Greene, and Cameron.

What’s a blogger / former Padres disappointment to do at this point? Do I really need to explain the above? Greene is a good player no doubt, but not what he is made out to be.

Lets just convince our girlfriends / wives that Padres players other than Khalil Greene are also good looking. I have a personal hankering for Kouz, but that’s me.

Melvin Update (1/25): I can’t believe I forgot to mention Khalil’s defense in the original article. The thought was brewing in my head during the writing process, but never got out. Perhaps the endless binges of Moonshine and balut have finally caught up to me.

Here are Greeney’s (Greeny?) OOZ and RZR stats courtesy of the Hardball Times.

Compare these numbers to Adam Everett (linked above), keeping in mind Everett was hurt in 2007. RZR stands for revised zone rating, or the percentage of balls hit into Green’s zone on which he made the play. OOZ stands for out of zone, or the balls hit outside his zone he turned into an out.

They show Greene’s 2004-2006 was good, but not great. Only in 2007 did his play catch up to his reputation.

For reasons why I think this phenomenon exists, check out my article Tighter, I Can’t See His Pores!

The NL Most Valuable Copy Creator Award

I went to write a post on Jimmy Rollins and the NL MVP, but noticed Joe Sheehan said all I was going to write. Whatever, call me a cut-and-paste blogger, but he nails it:

This vote reflects the storyline, not the performance. All of the measures of performance that we have, from Value Over Replacement Player to Wins Above Replacement Player to…well, pick your favorite stat…yield roughly the same conclusion: that Jimmy Rollins was somewhere between the fifth- and eighth-best player in the NL this year…

There is one point I can’t so easily take credit for, however:

The three best players in the league finished fourth (Wright), seventh (Peavy) and ninth (Pujols) in the MVP balloting, not because their performance was lacking, but because their teammates were.

The teammate performance aspect of MVP voting I can claim, but who knew our homie Jake Peavy tied for the second best WARP in the NL?

This is the reason I get all snarky when people cite MVPs and All-Star births in evaluations. I view this as fun fluff to talk (and post) about, but it tells you something if a debate participant brings it up in actual analytical discussion.

1. Player X is MVP for leading his team to the playoffs, something Player Y failed to do.

2. Player X is MVP because it stands for Most Valuable, and X’s team would be nowhere without him. Player Y’s team has has other good players, making X less valuable.

See a problem here? How is it that both of these are arguments are used as rationale for MVP voting? They’re complete opposites.

…more than anything, it was Rollins’ grinder persona that kept the team positive and focused…

So on and so forth. It’s so comical to me, we watch sportswriters make it up as they go along to push whichever player they’ve already decided should win.

Just pick the best guy. He isn’t a mascot. He can’t control others’ performance.

Peavy is 12th-ever unanimous NL Cy Young

He’s the first pitcher to be unanimous since Randy Johnson in 2002. He’s also the fourth Padre to win the award, joining Mark Davis, Gaylord Perry and Randy Jones.

In terms of Padres pitching accomplishments, Peavy’s season is up there. His ERA+ of 159 beats Perry’s mark of 121 the year he won and Jones’ 120, although Davis had an ERA+ of 192 his Cy Young season. Hoffman, for that matter, has received votes for Cy Young four times, three in the top 5 and two in the top 2, and had his best season in 98 with an ERA+ of 263. But comparing starters to relievers is comparing apples to oranges.

Not that any of that should take away from what Peavy accomplished. He finished with the pitching triple crown and finished with a comfortable lead in each category.

Now he’s free to turn his attention towards signing an extension.