Melvin was in San Diego on Monday and Tuesday meeting with Padres team officials, including general manager Kevin Towers.

It’s not known if Melvin — relieved of his duties May 8 after spending the past four-plus seasons in Arizona — will be an advisor to Towers or a consultant.

Melvin slated to accept job with Padres

Congratulations, Mel! It’s always great to see a fan make his way from his mama’s basement to the front office, but it’s doubly great to see the man I started this blog with do it. I’m not sure I understand what they mean by ‘four-plus seasons in Arizona’ but oh well - tell Towers I say “wazzup!”

RAY UPDATE:

I now understand that the Padres hired Bob Melvin, former Diamondbacks manager. This simultaneously makes more sense and not a lot of sense. I apologize for the confusion.

You can’t trade bad players just because they’re bad. If baseball were that easy, Padre fans would never have the pleasure of telling the thrilling tales of Mark Bellhorn. You trade players when their perceived value is greater than their actual value.

-Melvin Nieves, 08/11/08

Following Khalil’s MVPadre winning season of 2008, we at The Sac Bunt made the case (cases, really) for why he should be moved. His value was at an all-time high and it wasn’t really representative of his actually production. For all of his power prowess, and Khalil hit 27 home runs that year, his complete inability to draw a walk more than evened things out, leaving him with a wOBA that season of .322. Yet the Padres attempted to sign Khalil to an extension, one that he fortunately turned down, and now he’s working through his problems both on-field and off, in St. Louis.

Lesson learned, right?

In a recent blog entry on Kevin Kouzmanoff, Paul DePodesta aptly quoted Mark Twain, saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” DePo was using Twain’s words to discuss Kouzmanoff random success after May 14th, but it might work better if used to talk about the third baseman’s current trade value.

In his discussion, DePo points out the tear Kouzmanoff’s been on since May 14th, which includes 9 home runs in 140 at-bats. Stretched out over a full season, that’s more than 30 home runs, an especially impressive feat playing in Petco. But DePo noticeably fails to mention Kouzmanoff’s 27 strike outs and 5 walks over the same stretch. That’s a BB/K of 0.19, which is consistent with Kouz’s 0.17 mark in 2008. It’s also lower than Khalil’s 0.25 in 2007.

At the time, trading Khalil wasn’t as simple as simply finding a trade partner. There was no one in the system to take his place, so the team would have to go outside to find a replacement. With Kouzmanoff, the same problem does not exist.

As we’ve discussed, Chase Headley has become a bit of an enigma in this organization, though he’s been hot over the past couple of weeks. He’s also a more-than-viable option for this team at third base. And it would seem that a decision is begging to be made, with the outfield becoming suddenly stuffed. Along with Headley, the Padres have the newly unretired Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston, Brian Giles, Kyle Blanks, and Will Venable. While it seems that the sand in Giles’ Padres hourglass is just about out, there’s no benching an active Hall of Famer or the team’s best non-Adrian hitter. And Towers has also pledged playing time for Venable, while Blanks’ presence demands some as well.

(For our coverage of Blanks’ call-up, search ‘Chase Headley’ in our archives and look for articles from June of last year.)

The best reason to trade Kouzmanoff, though, is because this team isn’t any good. We’re currently 32-41 and something like seven games out of the Wild Card. We also have a Pythagorean of 28-45 and are absent our two best pitchers (although Kevin Correia has really turned it on as of late). While some of the young talent are playing surprisingly well, the aforementioned Tony Gwynn and Everth Cabrera leading the pack, by no means should the team think that this dinner party is going end without someone getting piss drunk and saying something inappropriate about someone else’s wife. Let’s just take it easy, explore what the market for Kouzmanoff is (the Indians recently traded Mark DeRosa for Chris Perez and a PTBNL, for instance), and get ready for 2010 and beyond.

Technically.

According to Padres personnel, Peavy met with Padres manager Bud Black late Wednesday night to discuss a trade overture from the Sox.

Peavy, whose consent would be needed for a trade to any club, declined all comment after meeting with Black.

Within the clubhouse, though, Peavy referred to the situation as “something to think about” yet also restated his desire to stay in the National League. One of Peavy’s teammates said he believes Peavy respects the Sox’s aggressiveness in pushing for him but may have reservations about pitching for Ozzie Guillen, the White Sox’s volatile manager.

Peavy trade to White Sox may be near

There’s not a whole lot to say right now, so feel free to read everything we said over the winter.

We’ll keep you posted, but in the meantime, we recommend you Google Aaron Poreda. Or just click here. We really do spoil you.

RAY UPDATE: Nevermind. I feel naive.

Not sure how anyone would possibly be aware of this rumor, since The Sacrifice Bunt hasn’t yet reported on it. But Brewers and Padres fans’ respective imaginations have been a buzz the past few days from news of Milwaukee’s supposed interest in trading for Jake Peavy.

The rumor seemingly stemmed from Tuesday’s report from the Union Tribune’s Bill Center:

The Milwaukee Brewers, who have plenty of offense and prospects but are short on pitching, are now said to be interested in Peavy.

Note Center’s use of the vague, unhelpful passive voice in his language. “The Brewers … are now said to be interested.” Said? Who is doing the saying here Bill? Your imagination? Your poor reporting skills?

The only other published source I can find relating to such a “rumor” comes from a Peter Gammons article published last Sunday. Gammons writes:

One reason for Billy Hall’s expected resurgence is the laser surgery he had in the offseason. “It makes all the difference,” Hall says. “I can see again.” Hall believes the Brewers will be in on Jake Peavy, when and if he goes on the market.

According to MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy, this short piece of non-news was Center’s only source for the report he published quoted above. McCalvy goes on to explain that Brewers GM Doug Melvin expressly denies any conversation with the Padres regarding Peavy, and calls the rumors “disruptive”.

It’s easy to see why Center might want to be so vague in his wording, if in fact he is reporting a someone else’s published speculation as something more substantive.

It appears Center’s only source is his quest for relevance. Don’t forget: this man has a Hall of Fame vote.

And with that, a dark chapter in Padres history has come to a close.

Yesterday, news of the release of Matt Bush, to make room for free agent Cliff Floyd (whose acquisition I like), came down with a chorus of WTFs. How could Bush and his 95 MPH fastball get cut over the Joe Thatchers of the 40 man roster? Last night, we found out why:

El Cajon police Lt. Steve Shakowski yesterday confirmed an investigation involving Bush and allegations of assaultive behavior and public intoxication. A witness, who requested his name not be used because of the ongoing police investigation, said Bush was drunk, threw a golf club into the dirt, picked up and threw a freshman lacrosse player and hit another one. Bush also yelled “I’m Matt (expletive) Bush,” and “(expletive) East County,” before driving over a curb in his Mercedes when leaving the campus, according to the witness.

Padres cut ties with Matt Bush

As you might remember, Bush’s Padre career began under similar circumstances when, less than two weeks after he was made the number one pick overall, he was arrested outside of a Peoria bar. He followed this up with a short stint as a terrible shortstop, ending his offensive career with an OBP and SLG both below .300. 

Bush finally provided reason for confidence when the team moved him to the mound. A pitcher in high school, Bush was clocked at 95 and struck out 16 in 7.2 innings, before the team shut him down with a torn ligament in his pitching elbow. After sitting out the entire 2008 season, this was to be the year that Bush started making good on his highest of high draft pick. But now, he’ll have to do that on another team.

I literally feel uncomfortable discussing Matt Bush. The team has done so much to distance themselves from his pick, which has to be at the top of the list of low points for the team. Grady Fuson and Sandy Alderson came onboard to solidify the team’s decision making after they passed on Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, and Stephen Drew in the 2004 draft. The team went discount when they chose Matt Bush and they’ve paid for it.

Of course, Alderson’s now gone, but his replacement might be the silver lining to this story.

It was Jeff Moorad’s Diamondbacks who made Justin Upton the number one pick in the 2005 draft, and Moorad has a reputation for being aggressive in the draft, getting praise from Scott Boras, of all people, who said:

“Jeff believes in going after draft picks,” said agent Scott Boras, a former rival of Moorad’s whose yearly stable of future clients includes several players chosen in the first round. “You’ve got to remember: Jeff cut his teeth in the baseball business representing draft players.”

Moorad would boost strength in draft

Since Moorad took over, the Diamondbacks have used their first round picks on Upton, Max Scherzer, Jarrod Parker, and Dan Schlereth. Upton and Scherzer have already become productive members of the major league team, while Parker is a top 20 prospect in baseball, and Schlereth has jumped to the top of Arizona’s system. The Padres have had less luck in the past four years, with none of their four picks scheduled to begin the season in San Diego.

This is especially promising, as the Padres have the third pick in the 2009 draft. With Grant Green or Alex White dropping to the Padres spot, it’s likely that the team will have Matt Bush looking over their shoulder, even if he’s not in the system anymore. But using this pick wisely might help to finally brush him off.

Ray Update: Bush has been traded to the Blue Jays for a PTBNL.

Padres bolster infield with Eckstein

The internet’s least favorite player is officially a San Diego Padre.

It appears that David Eckstein will become the Padres fourth Opening Day second baseman since the departure of Mark Loretta, following in the depressing footsteps of Josh Barfield, Marcus Giles, and Tad Iguchi.

Eckstein’s spent the better part of the past eight seasons as a shortstop, although he moved to second after being acquired by Moorad’s old team in August. Eckstein’s defense at short has been steadily deteriorating and, according to Tangotiger’s fan scouting reports, his arm strength has been getting worse, bottoming out at 0 this year. Luckily for us, second base is closer to first than shortstop.

Offensively, Eckstein hasn’t done much. He posted a career high wOBA of .335 with the Cardinals in 2005. Never in his career has he posted a slugging percentage over .400 but he’s had some good on-base percentages. Over the past three seasons, his OBP has been .350, which is something the team hasn’t gotten from the middle infield since 2004.

For 2009, the projections for Eckstein look like:

Not good, but that OBP might be a silver lining. And he’ll be back making under $1 million, so we’ve got that going for us.

Something else interesting to come out of this is the appearance of solidity Eckstein gives in the 4 hole. Towers has spent the past couple of months collecting second baseman. Eckstein is the latest name on a list that includes Luis Rodriguez, Travis Denker, Chris Burke, Edgar Gonzalez, and Matt Antonelli. With Eckstein taking over at second, Rodriguez would seem to be the team’s shortstop going into the new season, and Antonelli will likely start the year in Portland. From there, Burke and Gonzalez are utility guys who can play all over the infield and in the outfield, with Burke owning 500 innings experience in centerfield. This leaves Denker, who projects to be a monster, left needing a big Spring Training.

Jake Peavy has a secret buried deep within his 2008 performance. The secret isn’t easy to see, although that has to be true because it’s what defines a secret.

Sabermetricians are pretty good at finding this type of hidden knowledge. One method of finding truth and escaping prejudices in a player’s pitching ability is to use a statistic called tRA. This metric breaks the result of every plate appearance down to a level that allows us to accurately assign credit or blame to the pitcher.

Some of these plate appearance results tRA takes into account are line drives, fly balls, pop-ups, home runs, strikeouts, and walks. Again, the purpose here is to value as accurately as possible the influence on run prevention that pitchers have direct control over. tRA is park and league neutral, and set to the same Runs per 9 innings scale as ERA, a statistic that does poor job predicting future success compared to tRA.

This is a similar process to the FIP stat, though tRA incorporates more detail. Here is more information on tRA, along with some background from Dave Cameron about why ERA isn’t as great as you might think.

Ok, I promised a Jake Peavy secret, and you want one ASAP, am I right? Here you go:

See that there? See the number that jumps out a little bit? Maybe a little jumping? Holy crap. I flipped a lid when I saw that 2008 number.

Seriously, don’t tell anyone. Call me paranoid and delusional, (ok, I’ll call myself paranoid and delusional) but it isn’t an accident this wasn’t posted until after the deals with Atlanta and Chicago fell through.

Though he probably employs more complex metrics than tRA, this information clearly corroborates why Sandy Alderson has held tight to his position that trading Jake is first and foremost a baseball move.

Of course Peavy’s unsightly tRA isn’t the only reason to make the trade. As we’ve mentioned in previous posts, his age, the many needs within the organization, a poor chance the team will compete next year, and the injury risk of pitchers are all motivating factors.

When you couple this reasoning with the the Padres passing on trade opportunities with two teams, and at least one passable offer from the Braves, it makes me think that someone making the case that trading Jake is primarily about lowering payroll has a lot more explaining to do.

An ERA that seems likely an abberation, and the other reasons mentioned above mean that now is a good time to make the right deal for Jake Peavy. Unfortunately, neither the Cubs nor the Braves seem prepared to offer value the Padres prefer. Hopefully Jake’s hidden slump doesn’t manifest itself in a higher ERA come July next season.

But now that dream has gone from me.

I hope (and predicted) The Padres will find a way to keep Trevor Hoffman in San Diego for the rest of his career, so lets take a look at what’s going on in the closer market that might affect this goal.

edit: Teams have stated a lack of interest in our guy, I’ll try to keep this post updated. Though most of the news can be found amid the fury of activity at mlbtraderumors.

First, the good news

• The Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez for 3 years and $37 million. K-Rod is younger and arguably better than Francisco Cordero, yet Cordero signed a deal for 4 years and $46 million last offseason. Looks like the market for closers is a bit down this year.
• The Indians ink former Cub Kerry Wood for about 2 years and $20 million, though the deal is not yet official. This probably takes the Indians, whom I expected to be Hoffman’s most likely suitor, out of the running.

Not out of the woods (no pun intended) yet

The tag of “closer” is a golden ticket in Major League Baseball. It doesn’t take much skill relative to one’s peers to earn the “closer” label, but once you do all kinds of doors open. Sucks to be JJ Putz, because the Mets effectively ripped the golden ticket from his hands in the trade from Seattle. Putz will pitch the 8th inning in Citi Field, and I hope for his sake he buys the right choclate bar when his contract is up.

Of course it also sucks for us, since the Putz trade takes one more closer off the board without eliminating a team from the market.

That leaves the Tigers, Brewers, Dodgers, Cardinals,  and Mariners could still be kicking tires on closers, with Brian Fuentes, if he’s up your alley Eric Gagne, and Trevor Hoffman available.

I’m no expert on each financial and roster situations, but here’s what I do know.

• Detroit is broke. I don’t know what they’re doing linked to free agents, let alone free agent closers, which make the least sense for a cash strapped team to sign. update 12/11: They’re not interested.
• Milwaukee has the money after their half-assed attempt to re-sign CC obviously failed. Hoffman’s 2007 performance on their turf may still be fresh in peoples minds, who knows. Also, they probably fancy themselves contenders, and I have a hard time seeing Hoffman get a 40 hour a week closer job with a contender. update 12/11: Brewers are out of it.
• Los Angeles has Jonathan Broxton, but they might offer Trevor barrels of money so they both can laugh in our faces. I wouldn’t put a free agent signing out of spite past the Dodgers. And no, I don’t know if I’m kidding here or not.
• St. Louis has the money, but are contenders. Tony La Russa seems to have a man crush on Fuentes, so lets consider this a match made in heaven and move on. update 12/11: Cardinals are indeed only about the Fuentes.
• Seattle is an interesting situation. They’re rebuilding, which doesn’t often go along with signing free agent closers. They also have the budget to do all sorts of things, usually stupid.  They may have the same reasons for going after Hoffman as we do: giving the fans anything to cheer for.

So that’s how I see it. I still think the odds of seeing Trevor in a Padre uniform again are a lot better than his 99 to 1.

Relaying an entire major league market in 500 words is quite a challenge, so If I left something out please holla in the comments.