Via Tim Sullivan, skip to the middle of the article for the good stuff:

Boggs said his preliminary discussion with Padres General Manager Jed Hoyer was so superficial that “you couldn’t characterize it as a negotiation.” Boggs said Hoyer inquired as to Gonzalez’s expectations; that Boggs cited the eight-year, $180 million deal of New York Yankees’ first baseman Mark Teixeira, and that that comment effectively ended Hoyer’s exploration.

Case closed right? Maybe not. Agent John Boggs goes on with an important follow up, buried at the bottom for some reason:

“You always shoot high and adjust to the marketplace,” John Boggs said. “Who knows what might happen? When Jeff (Moorad) was in Arizona, everyone thought the Diamondbacks had no money, and they signed (Troy) Glaus and Russ Ortiz.

Is Boggs taking a page out of the Scott Boras book by throwing out a crazy figure via the media to gain an upper hand in expectations? Or does Adrian Gonzalez actually expect 8 years and $180 million? Either way, it’s obvious what that means  for the Padres’ chances of keeping Adrian, and it should have been obvious before.

If I were in charge, I’d accept an offer as soon as I think it is the best the team will get, whenever that may be. They need to plan on contending around 2012, and any hesitation playing to win now means sacrificing talent during that run, when the stakes are so much higher. That would be a mistake.

It’s been awhile since we’ve done a poll. Lets have some fun.

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With talk of the Twins and Joe Mauer close to coming together on an extension, it would seem that Adrian has jumped to the top of the waiting list. Whether he’s waiting to be extended or traded is yet to be seen.

At last week’s Town Hall meeting, the Padres told the crowd that they were committed to the name on the front of the jersey and not the ones on the back, and Jeff Moorad was later quoted in the Union-Tribune saying “I think the fairest description of our point of view is that we continue to be committed to doing what’s best for the long-term interest of the organization. As a result, no player is untouchable. And while we’re mindful of players’ individual popularity, we won’t put one player ahead of the long-term interests of the club.” Jed Hoyer gives a more diplomatic response, saying that it is still early in the process, but it would appear that the writing is on the wall.

The details have yet to come out on the Mauer extension, but let’s assume he’ll exceed $25 million a year (and that’s being generous to the Twins). With their new stadium, the team should see a boost in payroll, but Mauer will still eat up a large portion of their moneys. For their sake, I hope the payroll gets bumped to the $150 million range, just in case Peter Gammons was on to something when he pointed out that no team has won the World Series in 25 years with one player making 16% of the payroll*.

*Hilariously, A-Rod made 15.88% of the 09 Yankees payroll

I quoted Gammons two years ago, just before Peavy signed his extension with our San Diego Padres. At the time, I referred to it as an “Eric Owens extension,” meaning it was more populist than strategic. For you younger readers, replace Owens’ name with David Eckstein and you’ll get the idea. A well-rounded team with dreams of a World Series ring cannot afford to sink so much into one player. But then, who’s to say we want a well-rounded team?

This is not a Twins blog, and I don’t presume to know anything about their team or the way it operates, but a quick glance across the baseball landscape shows me that a Mauer extension will be a tremendous success for everyone: the Twins will have won a victory for small-market teams everywhere, Mauer is a hero for ignoring the bright lights of the big markets, and baseball writers get a new Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn, Sr. (combined!) to gush about. At this point, a World Series win would be the icing on the cake.

As a fellow Padres fan, I don’t have to tell you that we don’t even have a cake. Our enjoyment of our star player has been hijacked by seemingly non-stop trade rumors and our young core doesn’t really add up to much more than a Hostess snack cake. The 2010 PECOTA Projections put us at 74 wins and last place in the NL West. Las Vegas, for its part, gives us 80/1 odds of winning in October, putting us ahead of only the real train wrecks of the league. What we do have, despite everything I just said, is hope. With Blanks and Latos and Cabrera, the future looks brighter, and we still have a perennial All-Star and Gold Glove-winning first baseman, even if just for now.

With all that said, I pose this question to you, the loyal readers:

What would you rather the Padres do?

Would you rather see the team trade Adrian Gonzalez and maximize their resources in hope of building a small market contender like Colorado or Tampa Bay? Or would you rather see the team commit to Adrian and take their chances with one superstar making up to a third of the team’s payroll, crowning a new Mr. Padres in the process, even if it lowers our already low odds? Let us know in the comments.

Padres add Stairs for veteran presence (ESPN)

According to Jerry Crasnick, the Padres have signed Matt Stairs to a minor league deal with an invite to the big league camp.

I like this deal, but I like having a left-handed power-bat on the bench. This seemed to be the offseason to get one, with a couple of veterans finding themselves disregarded, but following Jason Giambi’s return to the Rockies and the AL Central’s interest in Jim Thome, the pickings still seemed slim. Truth be told, Stairs was not very good last year, or the year before, his monster bomb off of Broxton in the NLCS not withstanding, but he has dropped 30 pounds. If Stairs comes into Spring Training as serious as his weight-loss suggests, he would be a great addition to our already impressive bench.

Headley at hot corner a heated decision (Union-Tribune)

Tim Sullivan fills us in on some behind the scenes gossip behind Chase Headley’s move to third.

“Buddy (Black) and I were on the same page,” Towers said recently, describing the Padres’ philosophical divide before his dismissal as general manager. “I’d keep Kouz and trade Headley. But DePo (Paul DePodesta) has always been a huge Headley fan. Huge. As was Sandy (Alderson). Headley was kind of our poster child.”

To which Black responded with a diplomatic “That serves no purpose.” Because of course he did.

I hope that someone gives Towers a studio job, just so we can watch him react to Padres updates as they happen.

In case you aren’t following us on Facebook, you may not have noticed that the team signed Jerry Hairston, Jr. to a one-year deal worth $2.125 million.

Along with giving Mark Grant more opportunities to say “BroBI,” JJ (as he will henceforth be referred) will fill the team’s utility role. On his career, JJ has logged 400 innings at every defensive position other than first and catcher, and he’ll be the most versatile Padre since Damian Jackson in 2005. But his natural position is second base. You see where this is going.

David Eckstein is a horrible baseball player. I don’t doubt that he is a fantastic presence in the clubhouse, but he’s a very poor one on the field. Last year, he was worth 0.7 wins, worse than every starting second basemen in the league not named Kaz Matsui. Amazingly, CHONE projects Eckstein to be even worse this year, with 0.3 wins. So let’s start JJ, right?

Right. But indulge me, and allow me to explain why.

Eckstein is not a good hitter. At all. Last year, he ended the season with a wRC+ of 87, and Bill James and CHONE both project him to fall down near 80 this year. Unfortunately, JJ’s not much better. With the exception of 2008, when he exceeded his career BABIP by 75 points, he’s never been an above-average hitter and he’s not projected to be one this year. For all intents and purposes, he’s not a large step up offensively. Just defensively.

While Eckstein is not a good fielder, he’s not terribly experienced, with only a season’s worth of second base under his belt. The results haven’t been good, but we don’t have enough evidence to be conclusive. JJ, on the other hand, is a very good fielder. In over 4500 innings, Hairston has been worth +5.6 runs a year at second. But JJ’s not bad at most of the positions he’s played. What about his valuable versatility? In today’s Union-Tribune, Hoyer was quoted as saying “Jerry is one of the most versatile players in baseball and a great fit for our club. He will see action at nearly every position on the field.” If he was brought in to give the team options at every position, is it for the best to cement him in just one?

Yes. It is.

(Before I go on, let me just say that if the team is looking at JJ to take a lot of the load off of Blanks and Venable, then it might not be for the best. And if JJ isn’t built to last a whole season [he's only played 130 games twice], then it might not be for the best. But let’s act like everything’s copacetic, and move on.)

I don’t know how practical this is. Eckstein is a respected veteran, and he’s one of the most popular players on the team, both inside the clubhouse and up in the stands. He’s very good at the things I can’t plug into my calculator. But he’s also very bad at the things I can. At this point, as a member of 2010 Padres, Eckstein’s value is as the backup second basemen, who can fill in for JJ when he’s needed elsewhere on the diamond.

This trade’s not about Kouzmanoff or Hairston. Not really.

That’s not to say that it has nothing to do with them. The Padres traded a consistently solid third baseman for the right-handed center fielder they were looking for. There’s also Eric Sogard and Aaron Cunningham, but you get the idea.

No, this trade is more about Chase Headley and Tony Gwynn, Jr.

Headley’s benefit is obvious: he gets to go back to his original position. Along with the extra weight he’ll be able to put on, Headley’s value will go up just by getting out of left field. To quantify it, the positional adjustment for left field in WAR is -7.5 runs. Third base is +2.5 runs, meaning that by simply changing positions, Headley could gain 10 runs of value.

To put things more specifically, Headley was worth 1.4 wins last year (or 13.8 runs). Swapping out his -5.5 positional adjustment for Kouzmanoff’s +2.2 puts him up to 21.6 runs, or 2.2 wins. And that doesn’t take Headley’s awful outfield defense into consideration. If he had been a defensively neutral third baseman, he would’ve been worth nearly 3 wins. This leaves out a lot of nuance, but it helps to show how valuable a position can be.

For AJ, it might be even more obvious: he gets in the lineup. As the team stood Friday morning, the Padres were likely looking at an outfield of Headley in left, Will Venable in center, and Kyle Blanks in right. With Headley now in the infield, Blanks will likely slide to left and Venable to right, opening centerfield for AJ. This is what I said a couple of months ago:

Of the San Diego Padres not named ‘Adrian Gonzalez,’ AJ was the second best in terms of wins above replacement in 2009, with a WAR of 2.8. He achieved this despite being worth negative 1.7 runs offensively, because he was valued at plus 13.6 runs defensively. In fact, AJ’s UZR/150 of 12.2 was best for fifth in the league, amongst fielders with 800 innings played.

This is where I say that AJ’s 2009 success does not mean that he’ll have a similar 2010. He could easily come into the coming season and find himself exposed by opposing teams. Luckily for him, and us, the Padres have gotten him some help.

AJ found that a lot of his problems came in the form of left-handed pitching. He ended the season with an OPS of .693, but his splits broke down to a .501 OPS against LHP and a .763 OPS against RHP. This is where Hairston and his career .867 OPS versus left-handed pitching comes in. And Hairston’s no stranger to platoons.

In 2008, following Jim Edmonds’ departure, Hairston teamed up with Jody Gerut to give the team a .900 OPS (or so) out of centerfield, no small feat given Petco’s .796 park factor that year. And for good measure, the two of them chipped in a UZR of 9.1. Now, to expect AJ to have a season like Gerut’s 2008 is unrealistic, but to expect the team’s two solid center fielders to excel while playing to their own strengths is not. Combine their potential production with Headley’s position change and the team may very well shipped 2.7 wins to Oakland and received 5 in return.

Today, the Padres traded Kouz for Sean Gallagher, Craig Italiano, Ryan Webb, and Aaron Cunningham. Sort of.

The more accurate way of saying it is that the Padres traded Kevin Kouzmanoff to the Oakland A’s for Aaron Cunningham and Scott Hairston, the same Scott Hairston they traded last July for the three aforementioned pitchers.

The initial reaction here is positive. While the squashing of the earlier rumor that Gio Gonzalez would be involved deflated things a bit, this is still a good return for a trade from a position of strength. Headley can now move to third, and AJ will (likely) see a lot of playing time with Hairston as his platoon partner in center.

While Kouzmanoff was not the favorite player of The Sacrifice Bunt, it’s still a bit sad to see him go. He may not be a world-beater, but he’s a solid 2.7 win player who could really be something if he could just learn to take a walk every now and then. Good luck, Kouz, and speak fondly of us.

UPDATE: Eric Sogard is on his way to Oakland as well.

But hold on, we’re not done with you yet!

We were waiting for the right time to tell you, and I’d say that this is it, about the brand new Sacrifice Bunt Facebook page! As you may have noticed, our style of in-depth, hard-hitting, and beautifully written baseball analysis doesn’t lend itself so well to breaking news, so we’re branching out. On our Facebook page, you’ll be able to stay up on all of the Padres breaking news with us. Think of it as The Sacrifice Bunt To-Go: you can just wait in the parking lot, and we’ll bring the Padres news to you!

Be a fan. We’d really appreciate it.

I’ve been seeing, or maybe just feeling, a lot of people wondering when the Padres are going to start the offseason. While the team has resigned Kevin Correia and brought in Dusty Ryan for catching depth, it’s a fair question. Many of the big names are off the table (this article is written on the heels of former Padre Jason Bay signing with the Mets), but the Padres were never going to be players in that game. Smaller names have also gone, including Mike Cameron, and that is more of an area of concern. Just not a big one.

Picking up Brian Giles’ extension last offseason was a mistake. Which isn’t to say that it was a bad call, because it wasn’t. Giles had a great 2008, and he looked like a steal at $6 million (his option was for $9 million, but he had a $3 million buyout), but we now know that Giles was a detriment to the team. For just as much money, the team could’ve signed Bobby Abreu*. The Angels gave $5 million to Abreu to play right field, and he rewarded them with 2.5 wins. And while the Padres locked their right fielder up in early November, the Angels waited until February to get theirs.

(*There are a lot of factors that go into a player signing in a certain city, and just because a veteran All-Star signed at a price to play for a team with a serious shot at the World Series doesn’t mean he would with a team that just cut ties with it’s franchise player over money.)

Jed Hoyer, it would seem, is in no hurry. Which isn’t to say that nothing’s happened, because players the Padres have shown interest in have signed somewhere (Coco Crisp, Henry Blanco). It’s just that none have signed with us. And that’s not a bad thing.

It’s not just about free agents with question marks that saw their prices go down, though Orlando Hudson would be a nice little upgrade. In the past couple of weeks, the Oakland A’s have added two more outfielders (Crisp, Michael Taylor) to go with the ones they already have (Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, and Scott Hairston). While it’s not a given, I wonder if the A’s are looking/willing to move one of them. Maybe the right-handed center fielder who’s shown that he can handle Petco Park. The Padres have shown an interest in a right-handed hitting center fielder and, with Tony Gwynn, Jr. already on the team, he doesn’t even have to hit right-handed pitching. A platoon partner for AJ could be a very economical acquisition for the team and one option that didn’t present itself until recently.

I don’t know what Hoyer’s thinking. Maybe he’s still busy assembling his front office team. Maybe he’s not done familiarizing himself with the Padres and what he has to work with. Or maybe he’s found himself caught up in the hardcore world of carne asada and is in need of an intervention. These are all reasonable explanations for why this team has been so inactive this postseason, and to be fair, it could all be a matter of Hoyer having no idea what he’s doing. Just remember that the season hasn’t started.

I invite you to think back on the offseason prior to the 2006 season. In an attempt to make room for Josh Barfield, and following the acquisition of Cameron and Vinny Castilla to fill two other holes, Kevin Towers sent Mark Loretta to Boston for Doug Mirabelli. The team would later sign Todd Greene to serve as his backup, giving the team a veteran backstop duo. And then, on February 3rd, the team released Greene to make way for Mike Piazza, who was coming off an injury-plagued and down (by his standards) year. For a million and a quarter, Towers brought in a legitimate cleanup hitter who slugged over .500. And he waited till February to do it.

R. Update:

This article names Reed Johnson as AJ’s potential platoon partner. His is an intriguing name, as he has a career OPS against left-handed pitching of .841, in over a thousand plate appearances. And he’s a free agent.

With Jed Hoyer busy eating burritos and going for jogs on the waterfront, I thought I’d give him some help with the state of the team and what he could to do make it better.

At the end of the 2009 season, Tony Gwynn, Jr. seemed to have cemented his place as the Padres center fielder. And yet, maybe he didn’t. Before Hoyer came onboard, Bill Center wrote the following in the U-T:

The Padres like Gwynn as a center fielder, to a point.

When you are a singles hitter, you better have a lot of singles and a high on-base percentage. Gwynn hit .270 with a .350 on-base percentage.

The Padres love him as a fourth outfielder, spot starter, defensive sub and left-handed pinch-hitter. But not so much as an every-day regular, unless he hits over .300.

Will Padres manage?

While this may simply be one man’s opinion, let’s take Center at his word. Let’s say that the team loves AJ (I’m going to start calling him AJ) as a fourth-outfielder, and that his lack of offense scares them off. Who else would be an option then?

Center suggests former Padre, and TSB ex-boyfriend, Mike Cameron. In his second year with the Brewers, Cameron posted a WAR of 4.3, his highest mark since 2006, his first season with the Padres. With Cameron, we’ll know what we’re getting: twenty home runs and dependable defense. But Cameron left San Diego for a $7 million deal after a poor 2007, in which he posted a 2.2 WAR. That’s down from his 4.6 mark in 2003, his previous contract year. Cameron signed a $20 million with the Mets then; will he be willing to take the necessary pay cut to come back to San Diego? If not, who else is there?

Another name bandied about is Marlon Byrd. He meets the right-handed requirement that Center lists in his article and, while he’s not the defender AJ and Cameron are, he posted a wOBA of .348. That puts his 2009 offensive campaign exactly even with Cameron, and better than AJ. If the price is right, might the Padres consider taking a chance on him? That would require the price to be right. What does Byrd expect to get? Let’s ask him:

“If people offer me a contract at two years and the right numbers, I’ll sign,” Byrd said. “If people offer me three years at the right numbers, I’ll sign.

“I’m not interested in a one-year deal. Do I want a three- or four-year deal, yes. But I don’t know what will happen. Last year, I thought Orlando Hudson would get a five-year deal, and he ended up getting one year and an option. The more seasons the better, but I just want fair value.”

Byrd’s future home up in air

That doesn’t sound to me like a player ready to take the San Diego Discount.

With Cameron and Byrd both positioned to cash-in, who’s a cheaper centerfield option for the Padres? Well, AJ.

While Center is correct to label him a singles hitter, AJ’s IsoP of .074 was at the bottom of the league, he still posted an only slightly-below-average wOBA of .332. This was thanks in large part to his decent BB% of 10.9. That still isn’t enough to make AJ an offensive equal to Cameron or Byrd, but maybe he doesn’t have to be.

Of the San Diego Padres not named ‘Adrian Gonzalez,’ AJ was the second best in terms of wins above replacement in 2009, with a WAR of 2.8. He achieved this despite being worth negative 1.7 runs offensively, because he was valued at plus 13.6 runs defensively. In fact, AJ’s UZR/150 of 12.2 was best for fifth in the league, amongst fielders with 800 innings played. All things considered, Fangraphs listed AJ as worth $12.6 million this season. He made only $400 thousand, and he’s not in line to make a raise for 2010.

This is the point where I tell you that any conclusions drawn on AJ’s defense are incomplete, as he doesn’t have nearly enough innings played to compose a proper sample size. But given the price tag, is it worth finding out?

The answer, Mr. Hoyer, is yes. Rather than go in on Cameron for $10 million, or Byrd for $5 million, the correct answer is to go with Tony Gwynn, Jr. for less than half of a million dollars. AJ will not solve all of our problems, as the team will have to find another source of power somewhere (unless the confidence in Blanks and Venable is there), but he does come with the promise of superior defense at the position where it comes the most in handy.

Ray Update:

Beyond the Box Score has posted an article projecting the WAR for free agents. They list Mike Cameron at 2 and Marlon Byrd at 1.9.

As you just read right here, Kevin Towers’ attempts to trade Adrian Gonzalez may have clashed with new boss Jeff Moorad’s wishes, and now Towers is gone. But if you’ve also been reading the more mainstream sports media, you’ve gotten the impression that Adrian is still definitely going to Boston. Or not. It’s confusing, but that’s why we’re here: for you!

Gonzalez might put Padres in a bind (San Diego Union-Tribune)

Bill Center surmises that Adrian is both the new face of the franchise and a player whose combination of ability and personality will lead him to a big payday. Which means that the team will likely trade him, and soon, making him the new Peavy. He knows this, in part, because Adrian is not featured anywhere on a brochure sent to season ticket holders, because brand new general manager Jed Hoyer has yet to contact Adrian’s agent, and because Moorad has said that he doesn’t want to move the fences back.

But that’s San Diego’s take. What does Boston think?

Why the Sox should be going, going . . . going after Gonzalez (Boston Globe)

Boston thinks that Adrian wants to be where the action is: Boston. Doug Mirabelli gets it. Because the Yankees just won the World Series, thanks in part to one-time-almost-Red Sox Mark Teixeira, Boston doesn’t have the luxury of losing in the Division Series anymore, and Adrian would give them the big bat to wear out the Green Monster they need. Support for Boston’s argument includes the Adrian-less brochure, again, and the good time he had while playing in Portland in the minors.

But that’s Boston’s take. What does the national media think?

Padres only open to dealing stars for right price (Ken Rosenthal)

That the Padres are only open to dealing Adrian Gonzalez for the right place. Rosenthal points out that Adrian will still be extremely affordable over the next two years, and not simply relatively. He also points out that, since Boston made a big trade with Cleveland for Victor Martinez, the well may be too dry to pull anything off.

But that’s Ken Rosenthal’s take. What’s a fourth opinion I should listen to?

Why Adrian Gonzalez May Remain Off Limits to Sox (WEEI)

Because Jed Hoyer knows Theo Epstein’s tricks, and vice versa. To support this, the author points out that Epstein has worked out nothing but extremely minor deals with his other former protege, Diamondbacks general manager Josh Byrnes. He also points out, as did Rosenthal, that the Padres can afford Adrian if they believe winning is possible in the next two seasons, and that an extension that eats up his option could appeal to Adrian as it appealed to David Ortiz in 2007.

But these are only a handful of the voices out there, voicing their opinions on trading Adrian Gonzalez. As the offseason goes on, and more, hopefully differing, opinions are given, The Sac Bunt will be here to fill you in.

Now that the World Series is finally over, the good part of the season can begin. Some teams have already started, like the Angels, who just signed Bobby Abreu to a new two-year contract, and the Pirates, who traded for Akirnori Iwamura. And while the Padres have already cut ties with Edgar Gonzalez, new general manager Jed Hoyer has yet to show us what he can do.

So, Jed, before you start shopping, would you mind taking a look at my wish list? Thanks.

• Rocco Baldelli
• Kelvim Escobar
• Eric Hinske
• Dan Uggla
• Juan Uribe
• Jason Varitek

I’ll start with the outfielders, Baldelli and Hinske. Both are capable players, Baldelli so much so he could platoon with Will Venable in right. Hinske can  be the strong left-handed bat to come off the bench. Uribe joins them as the backup infielder who can actually play on the left-side of the infield.

Escobar is a great low-risk project for this team. He’s a good pitcher and he’ll be coming off an injury, which means that he’ll come cheap. If he works out, he could be a solid veteran arm for the front of the rotation. And if he doesn’t, the team can part ways with him without losing too much, as the team has depth at young starting pitching.

Then there’s Dan Uggla. I’ll admit that this is a bit of dreaming on my parts, but Hoyer’s pretty dreamy, so excuse me for soing so. I know that Florida is looking to move Uggla, but I don’t know what they’d want in return, I hope they would want Heath Bell. Uggla would fill many holes for us. He’d knock David Eckstein out of the lineup, and he’d be the real-live slugger to hit behind Adrian Gonzalez. This takes the heat off of the youngsters, especially Kyle Blanks. He’d likely become the highest paid Padre, unless Adrian signs an extension, but it wouldn’t be obscene. Plus it would make the reader’s comments section of Union-Tribune articles just a little bit easier to read.

Finally, I threw in Jason Varitek as a welcoming gift for Jed. He’s the Captain, or a captain, he’d be Hundley’s shoulder to lean on, and he’d be someone for Hoyer to hang out with if the other guys are mean to him.

Happy shopping, Jed.