Today is July 1st, meaning that there is officially less than a month left till the trade deadline. With the Padres’ hopes for the season fading away, it seems likely that the team will be sellers and, over the course of this month, we here at The Sacrifice Bunt will try to stay on top of all the rumblings surrounding our team. Think of us as a low-rate, more specific version of M.L.B. Trade Rumors.

Speaking of that fine website, they gave a rundown of Peter Gammons‘ latest blog entry discussing the Cubs and their starting pitcher search. While there’s no talk of Greg Maddux becoming a Cub for the third time, there is mention of Randy Wolf.

Gammons reports that the Cubs have interest in Wolf and Wolf has interest in playing for a contender. And for good measure, Gammons mentions that the Padres still show interest in Matt Murton who’s been on our radar for a minute now. Of course, we already have a full outfield, complete with players who buy into the team’s philosophy of getting on-base. Where would Murton play? Would one of the outfielders have to change positions, possibly moving back to the position he played in the minors that is currently manned by a free-swinger? Hmm.

(jes’ sayin’)

In more Wolf news, the Phillies have demoted Brett Myers to Triple-A. Wolf is a former Phillie (Philly?) who rebuffed their attempts to bring him back after the 2006 and 2007 seasons. I have no idea who they’d give us in return, though.

Ray’s update: Of course, not if Wolf’s value plummets.

As Brother Melvin already filled us in, Chase Headley, the God third baseman has arrived. After two games, he’s hitting .375 (wait, who cares?) with a home run. Not bad. And while he spelled Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base tonight, he made his left field debut last night. He made an error, but it was likely the first night of many that we’ll see Headley patrolling the area opposite Jody Gerut.

Left field has been manned by five different outfielders this season. Scott Hairston, Justin Huber and Paul McAnulty have spent the most time in left, although Huber is now in Portland. The survivors, Hairston and McA, will likely see their playing time decrease with Headley in San Diego.

Where have they set the bar for the Tennessee Stud?

Overall, as of last Friday, the Padres left field as a whole produced an OPS of .759. McAnulty is leading this charge with a .913 OPS. He’s second in at-bats to Hairston, who has an OPS in left field of .666. Huber is at .569, for good measure.

Clearly, Headley has come to save us from the horrors that are Scott Hairston and Justin Huber. What this means for McAnulty, though, might be scarier.

Hairston is sticking around. He’s the only player on the team that can back up Gerut in center, and he still has goodwill leftover from those walk off jobs he hit last season. With Huber wearing Beaver blue, that leaves McA on the bench. Despite his defensive deficiencies, another blast was added to the “high”light reel tonight. One would hope that he’ll stick around given his superior hitting: an overall OPS+ of 110 is fourth on the team for players with 100 at-bats. But barring an injury somewhere, it would seem doubtful that McAnulty will find decent at-bats in the near future, which might not be best for the Padres.

(DC and Brother Preston contributed to this article)

Padres to promote top prospect (Padres.com)
Headley getting the call (Union Tribune)

If the Padres refuse to give the fourth most productive hitter regular playing time, Headley at least deserves the shot, considering he has the highest ceiling of our trio of left fielders.  And while Edgar Gonzalez is certainly carrying his weight at the dish, I feel a more comfortable with Headley available to backup at third.

To avoid becoming a super two player, compounded by a slow start in Portland, Headley’s early season callup was delayed.  After the super two deadline has passed (it somehow changes every year), and the team’s chances of making the playoffs in 2008 slipped away, his promotion seemed imminent.  His play would at least provide some entertainment value while the team prepares to contend in 2009.

What’s interesting is similar thinking could argue against an early callup.  Since the team is out of contention anyway, why hurry his development and risk messing with his mind?  Kevin Towers, apparently, follows this line of analysis.

“I think the environment is much better than it was three weeks ago,” Towers said. “We have got a lot of guys contributing offensively. When he gets here, he shouldn’t have to feel like he’s got to carry this ballclub. We’re playing good baseball now.

In any event, Headley seems poised to create some excitement for Padre fans, even if the team doesn’t catch the Diamondbacks.  He is expected as available Sunday at the earliest.  Otherwise he will play in Monday’s exhibition game in Cooperstown, then Tuesday in New York against the Yankees.

photo credit: ISU_79

And this happened twice.

Kevin Towers was on XX Radio this morning and talked about the state of THE Chase Headley. Some notable quotes include:

Headley’s the guy that we’ve got our eye on. I mean, he’s really started to heat up with the bat and that’s what we were hoping for. When people were asking “Why isn’t he coming up?” a couple weeks ago, he was hitting about .220 and we want this kid, when he gets up here, to have a great deal of confidence, not only offensively but defensively, and hopefully put him into a situation where there’s not a lot of pressure this guy’s going to be the savior of this ballclub and I think that time is close.

He is the one guy that we’ve got our eye on, just because we’ve struggled in left field. I think if you put Headley in there now with Jody Gerut and Giles, it’s a middle of the order type hitter that should be able to provide a little bit of offense, and I think that’s been the biggest discouraging thing about this ballclub.

So there you have it. Expect Headley sometime before, oh I’ll say August.

There’s a vote of confidence in there as well for the TSB endorsed Gerut. That’s nice.

Edmonds is released by Padres

In 90 at-bats, he hit one home run and two doubles while striking out 10 times. His 38 OPS+ is the lowest on the team of any player with 60 at-bats, the next lowest being Khalil at 53. He also created 6 runs. For some perspective, in his best season (2004: 170 OPS+), Edmonds created 8 runs in his first 32 at-bats.

Along with his struggles at the plate, Edmonds was not the defender most people remembered from his time in St. Louis and Anaheim. He seemed to lack the speed he needed to get to most balls.  Hollywood Jim was no where to be found.

He got off to a poor start with the Padres, suffering a strained calf during Spring Training. This caused him to miss the rest of Spring Training and the beginning of the year. Towers was quick to take this in mind, telling XX:

“I think he probably got a mulligan for the first two to three weeks just based on missing all spring. But, you know, certainly he’s lost a step or two. I think that’s been pretty obvious in the outfield, going back on balls, covering the gaps. And he just doesn’t seem to have his legs underneath him (or) the bat speed with guys that have plus velocity.”

Well, sort of.

Of course, we at The Sacrifice Bunt deserve much of the blame. It was us who started up the Edmonds bandwagon, saying way back in December:

Hollywood Jim could be a classic turnaround story. He’s already on the team’s radar and if he’s as healthy as he says he is, why not? If he bounces back to an average player by his standards, he’ll still be a middle of the lineup guy.

Whoops. Sorry.

Edmonds will be replaced by Jody Gerut, who was hitting 308/.382/.570 in Portland.

Three days after optioning future messiah Chase Headley to Portland, the Padres have added another outfielder to the mix.

The Padres were already long on outfielders when they acquired Justin Huber from the Kansas City Royals on Wednesday, though they still addressed a need or two in consummating the trade.

The Padres added the 25-year-old Huber for cash considerations or a player to be named later, a small price, Towers said, to land a player that he had long been interested in and one who could fill a need as a right-handed bat off the bench.

Padres acquire Huber from Royals

Huber’s had a little less than 100 big league at-bats and they haven’t been that impressive. His minor league stats, however, show us why the Padres might be interested in him: he’s got a little bit of pop, he walks a lot, and he strikes out even more. Sounds perfect. He’s also a converted first baseman, and was at one point a converted catcher, so he’s probably dynamite with the glove.

The question to wonder about is how he fits in with this team. Along with senior citizens Giles and Edmonds, the Padres have to find room in the outfield for McAnulty, Gerut, and Hairston. Now we’re throwing Huber onto the pile. That’s six outfielders for three spots. Of course, this all depends on how Edmonds is doing. If he starts the season on the disabled list, the problem solves itself but if he’s good to go, someone’s out and it’s probably McAnulty. And if McAnulty’s out, that means he and his 1.012 Spring Training OPS are left exposed.

It should be noted that the last time Towers got one of his guys for a player to be named later, he went on to post an OPS of 1.004 and steal (most of) our hearts. So maybe that old bastard knows what he’s doing.

Melvin Update: Luis Gonzalez and Kevin Cameron were optioned to Portland. The last spot in the pen goes to Enrique Gonzalez.

Khalil Greene Named 2007 Padres MVP

…when captain .290 OBP is the team’s most valuable player? Why can’t we move past these homecoming king valuations when determining the most worthwhile contributors to a professional club?

I don’t know if it’s the poor use of poor to begin with counting statistics like RBIs that gets to me the most, or if it’s my sneaking suspicion that blond hair and good looks are what compound the over-rating of Khalil Greene.

I’m not saying he should be actively shopped this winter. That usually gives away the leverage necessary to make a good trade. But if there is / was a similar package to that of Nick Swisher, and I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibilities, I think you have to take it. No question.

Who would replace him, you ask?

Granted, there isn’t anyone in the farm who is ready for the job, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t good options (formerly) out there. When only the best defensive shortstop this side of Ozzie Smith was available for mere pennies on the dollar, that answers that question.

Adam Everett at $2.8 million is the true definition of a moneyball signing, even when one considers the .299 career OBP (coincidently higher than the 2007 numbers posted by a certain Padres shortstop). Everett was undervalued in the market this year, and the Padres should have jumped on him.

This would leave an overhyped Greene available for trade, while gaping holes begging for young talent exist in center, or a corner outfield spot (Giles to left? Anyone? Not saying he needs it at this point, but it’s something worth planning for).

Back to the MVP

VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player is a nice stat for our use here. It incorporates all aspects of run scoring for a hitter, can be used for pitchers to compare with hitters, and adjusts for the importance and difficulty of each position on defense. It does not adjust for defensive ability however, so I would give a slight additional edge to Gonzalez, Greene, and Cameron.

What’s a blogger / former Padres disappointment to do at this point? Do I really need to explain the above? Greene is a good player no doubt, but not what he is made out to be.

Lets just convince our girlfriends / wives that Padres players other than Khalil Greene are also good looking. I have a personal hankering for Kouz, but that’s me.

Melvin Update (1/25): I can’t believe I forgot to mention Khalil’s defense in the original article. The thought was brewing in my head during the writing process, but never got out. Perhaps the endless binges of Moonshine and balut have finally caught up to me.

Here are Greeney’s (Greeny?) OOZ and RZR stats courtesy of the Hardball Times.

Compare these numbers to Adam Everett (linked above), keeping in mind Everett was hurt in 2007. RZR stands for revised zone rating, or the percentage of balls hit into Green’s zone on which he made the play. OOZ stands for out of zone, or the balls hit outside his zone he turned into an out.

They show Greene’s 2004-2006 was good, but not great. Only in 2007 did his play catch up to his reputation.

For reasons why I think this phenomenon exists, check out my article Tighter, I Can’t See His Pores!

A couple months ago, Towers was hoping to lock up Khalil:

“He’s one of our better players, and we’d like him to be here for some time,” General Manager Kevin Towers said yesterday.

Now…

“A long-term contract with Khalil at this time is probably doubtful,” said Towers. “I don’t know, it might not be able to get done.”

Padres, Greene fail to reach deal, eye arbitration

Towers went on to say that the problem might not be monetary but rather familial. The Greene family is back on the East Coast and health concerns might draw Khalil’s interest over there.

As we went over a couple months ago, parting ways with Khalil might be in the best interest of the club. While a solid fielder and a great power threat (coming from his position), Khalil’s inability to get on-base negates a lot. If we could dangle him out there in the effort to grab a replacement shortstop/replacement power bat (or both), we might as well. Now that the timer’s seemingly been set.

Isn’t Pittsburgh on the East Coast? Bay and Jack Wilson would do. And if the Pirates insist, they can throw in Ian Snell as well.

Ray update: The Rockies have locked up their shortstop.

Personally, I think they did this to make us look bad. Why else would they extend Tulowitzki before finding out if he can hit at sea level or not?

Brewers, Cameron strike deal to bolster outfield depth

The Milwaukee Brewers have reached an agreement with center fielder Mike Cameron.

According to The Associated Press, the deal is a one-year, $7 million deal with a club option for 2009.

Cameron, 34, hit 21 homers and drove in 78 runs for the Padres last year. He will miss the first 25 games of the 2008 season, as he serves a suspension under the terms of baseball’s drug-testing program.

This is a dark day for us here at the Sacrifice Bunt. We’ve made no secret of our affinity for Michael Terrance Cameron, so a part of us has died with the news that he’s signed with Milwaukee. But, like any good ex-girlfriend(s), we’re happy for Mike.

Milwaukee has a solid team and is one that will actually appreciate what he does for them. He’s not only bringing his superior glove to the middle of Miller Park but he’s allowing Ned Yost to move Bill Hall back to third and out of center (where he was overmatched), which moves Ryan Braun out of the position (where he was overmatched).

Milwaukee comes to Petco in August, so maybe we’ll sponsor a Sacrifice Bunt night at the park.

For Mike.

Melvin Update: For Mike. Also for The Sacrifice Bunt.

My feeling about appreciation is that things soured with the negotiation breakdowns at the beginning of the year, then again during this off season.  It looks like his demands for a longer term may have backfired. People may see a one year deal with Mike as a better option than Edmonds.