You can’t trade bad players just because they’re bad. If baseball were that easy, Padre fans would never have the pleasure of telling the thrilling tales of Mark Bellhorn. You trade players when their perceived value is greater than their actual value.

-Melvin Nieves, 08/11/08

Following Khalil’s MVPadre winning season of 2008, we at The Sac Bunt made the case (cases, really) for why he should be moved. His value was at an all-time high and it wasn’t really representative of his actually production. For all of his power prowess, and Khalil hit 27 home runs that year, his complete inability to draw a walk more than evened things out, leaving him with a wOBA that season of .322. Yet the Padres attempted to sign Khalil to an extension, one that he fortunately turned down, and now he’s working through his problems both on-field and off, in St. Louis.

Lesson learned, right?

In a recent blog entry on Kevin Kouzmanoff, Paul DePodesta aptly quoted Mark Twain, saying, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it does rhyme.” DePo was using Twain’s words to discuss Kouzmanoff random success after May 14th, but it might work better if used to talk about the third baseman’s current trade value.

In his discussion, DePo points out the tear Kouzmanoff’s been on since May 14th, which includes 9 home runs in 140 at-bats. Stretched out over a full season, that’s more than 30 home runs, an especially impressive feat playing in Petco. But DePo noticeably fails to mention Kouzmanoff’s 27 strike outs and 5 walks over the same stretch. That’s a BB/K of 0.19, which is consistent with Kouz’s 0.17 mark in 2008. It’s also lower than Khalil’s 0.25 in 2007.

At the time, trading Khalil wasn’t as simple as simply finding a trade partner. There was no one in the system to take his place, so the team would have to go outside to find a replacement. With Kouzmanoff, the same problem does not exist.

As we’ve discussed, Chase Headley has become a bit of an enigma in this organization, though he’s been hot over the past couple of weeks. He’s also a more-than-viable option for this team at third base. And it would seem that a decision is begging to be made, with the outfield becoming suddenly stuffed. Along with Headley, the Padres have the newly unretired Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston, Brian Giles, Kyle Blanks, and Will Venable. While it seems that the sand in Giles’ Padres hourglass is just about out, there’s no benching an active Hall of Famer or the team’s best non-Adrian hitter. And Towers has also pledged playing time for Venable, while Blanks’ presence demands some as well.

(For our coverage of Blanks’ call-up, search ‘Chase Headley’ in our archives and look for articles from June of last year.)

The best reason to trade Kouzmanoff, though, is because this team isn’t any good. We’re currently 32-41 and something like seven games out of the Wild Card. We also have a Pythagorean of 28-45 and are absent our two best pitchers (although Kevin Correia has really turned it on as of late). While some of the young talent are playing surprisingly well, the aforementioned Tony Gwynn and Everth Cabrera leading the pack, by no means should the team think that this dinner party is going end without someone getting piss drunk and saying something inappropriate about someone else’s wife. Let’s just take it easy, explore what the market for Kouzmanoff is (the Indians recently traded Mark DeRosa for Chris Perez and a PTBNL, for instance), and get ready for 2010 and beyond.

You might have noticed recently that the Padres’ league home run leader Adrian Gonzalez was not included in an online poll about the forthcoming home run derby.

Darren Smith apparently mentioned the oversight on air, which I have been unable to confirm since I refuse to subjugate myself to listening to XX 1090.

I didn’t see it mentioned in that Gaslamp Ball thread linked above, so I’m not sure if it was reported on air, but it is worth pointing out that the poll itself has no bearing on which players actually participate in the contest.

According to the statement printed directly below the online ballot:

Poll results will in no way determine the actual participants of the 2009 State Farm Home Run Derby, since player participation is solely at the discretion of the Office of the Commissioner of Baseball

Gonzalez’s inclusion in the home run derby was hotly contested last year. Milwaukee’s Ryan Braun was selected over Adrian as the final NL participant, despite sitting tied for 4th in home runs and seeing slightly more than half his opportunities for homers in a pitchers’ park.

Patrick Courtney, spokesman for the commissioner’s office, corroborated the selection rules:

Asked who decides which players are selected, Courtney said Tuesday, “We work together with ESPN, (Commissioner) Bud Selig, a committee of people.”

Gonzalez, as with any bid for a spot on the home run or all-star squad from a Padre, has an uphill battle. The Padres play in the most extreme pitcher friendly ballpark, and in one of the smallest media markets in the nation.

Hopefully, ballpark and league adjusted statistics will become the norm when measuring ballplayer contributions, but they aren’t right now. Instead we’re stuck with simplistic, misleading counting statistics like home runs and RBIs. There’s not much we can do much about the market size of San Diego.

Strangely, Padres.com currently displays a photo of Adrian Gonzalez with the caption “Enjoying a career year, Gonzalez needs your vote.” Just below is a link titled “Vote for derby participants,”  which leads to the famed ballot lacking any mention of our boy.

Not selected him last year was unfortunate. Not selecting the front-running league home run champ to for the damn home run derby this year is a joke. I have a hard time expecting such an oversight this year, but I also hope the team will step up its marketing efforts behind Adrian. Hopefully, since the actual selections are made internally, they already are.

It is also my hope Padres fans step up the pressure publicly. With the impending trade of Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez is clearly the face of the franchise. His participation in such a well viewed event brings recognition for him, and our favorite team.

Let’s be those obnoxious big market fans. Lets make a stink about it. Ok, you don’t have to be too obnoxious if you don’t want to. But it’s highly encouraged!

To help, I put together a little something something for your blog sidebar for forum signature. Below it is the HTML code to copy and paste. The photo is licensed under Creative Commons by Dirk Hansen.

Large:
<a href=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/1245/adrian-gonzalez-for-home-run-derby-taking-matters-into-our-own-hands/”><img src=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/blog/wp-content/2009/06/gonzalez4derby_large.png” alt=”Adrian Gonzalez for Home Run Derby” width=”300″ height=”224″ /></a>

Small:
<a href=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/1245/adrian-gonzalez-for-home-run-derby-taking-matters-into-our-own-hands/”><img src=”http://thesacrificebunt.com/blog/wp-content/2009/06/gonzalez4derby_small.png” alt=”Adrian Gonzalez for Home Run Derby” width=”200″ height=”150″ /></a>

With the Padres possessing the third overall pick in this year’s MLB First-Year draft, we at the Sacrifice Bunt will be going through some of the different players that might be available once San Diego goes on the clock.

This counts Stephen Strasburg out. Sorry.

Leading up to draft day, we’ll help you get better acquainted with the various prospects, starting right now with Donavan Tate.

Biography

The 6′3″, 200 lb. Tate, who’s not to be confused with the actor Tate Donovan, is the son of former Tampa Bay Buccaneer Lars Tate. A two-sport star, Tate has actually committed to playing football at the University of North Carolina, after being courted by such programs as USC, Michigan, and Alabama. If he enrolls, Tate will have his eye on joining the school’s baseball team as well.

Currently a quarterback, it’s unclear where Tate will play on the baseball field if he suits up for UNC.

Scouting Data

Tate is a five-tool outfielder, and might be the toolsiest player in this year’s draft. During his football tryouts, Tate was clocked running a 4.4 40 and benched 300 lbs. On the diamond, his arm’s been clocked at 95 mph. And for good measure, he could probably sell a mean pair of jeans.

He’s received comparisons to the other Chris Young, hopefully meaning that he’s a center fielder with range and power, and not that he’s a hack machine.

He’s still in high school though, which means that many of his tools are very raw; it’s still unclear how he’s going to hit in the bigs. And with UNC waiting for him, his agent will no doubt use that in negotiations, making him a harder sign.

P.S. His agent is Scott Boras.

Performance Data

As Tate is still in high school, I have no idea where to start looking for his stats. If you do, please drop a link in the comment section. Thanks.

Where does Tate fit in the organization?

Tate is a legit centerfield prospect, which is something the team doesn’t really have. The current centerfielder of the future is Cedric Hunter, and many question whether or not he’ll be able to stick out there. Other centerfielders in the system include Jaff Decker, who’s currently playing left field for Ft. Wayne, and Will Venable, who lacks great speed.

There are questions surrounding Tate, but they don’t have to do with his defense.

He would also be a break from the drafting habits of the past couple of years. The Padres haven’t taken many high school players at the top of the draft, with Decker being one exception. To give you an idea of what this can mean, here’s an excerpt from an interview Mad Friars had with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Mad Friars: For an organization that has drafted heavily in college players, how do you explain that seven out of your Top 11 are either high school players, draft-and-follows, or Latin American signings?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s my theory that no one should draft all college players and fewer teams still do. In general, unless you are talking about elite college players, many have a lot of polish but they also have a tools weakness, which limits their ceiling. I use the Blue Jays as an example, a team that used to just draft college guys, where you end up with a lot of players like Aaron Hill and Russ Adams. They are fundamentally sound but are they going to make a huge difference? No. The Padres do go college heavy but this year you are beginning to see a new era with them. In Latin America, they spent some money on players that are young and with high ceilings. College players like savings bonds, pretty secure investment, but you are not going to be able to go out and buy the Mercedes with that investment either. Latin American and high school players are like Tech stocks. Often you lose, but when you hit, it’s really sweet.

The Padres find themselves in a fantastic position this year, where they can grab (almost) anyone they want, and they hopefully won’t find themselves in that spot again for a while. There are plenty of safer picks to take in this year’s draft, which we will cover in the coming weeks, but Tate might be this team’s opportunity to take a chance.

You know what is fun, edgy, hilarious, and entertaining? You’re absolutely right, it’s roster construction. So get yourself a beer, a Sparks engery drink, a party hat, a kazoo, and whatever else kids these days use to have a good time, and lets get constructin’!

One of the most important lessons I’ve learned in my years of life and learning, it’s that even  seemingly innocuous decisions have crazy, unfathomable complications that arise when trying to figure stuff out by just looking at them. Call this an unfair generalization if you must, but intuition is no good at everything.

It seems like whenever I hear people talk about roster construction, they generally glance at the players available, look at the number of roster spots, and use intuition to try to reason their way through the decisions. Or, as I like to call this process “making it up as you go along.”

Usually when the rosters come out and a move is made, we hear mostly vague and unhelpful generalities from team brass. “We’re carrying 12 pitchers, ‘caus pitching wins championships and is teh awesome.” I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a rundown of the best way to construct a roster from an analytical perspective. Until today. Because I am teh awesome.

Mitchel Lichtman, or MGL to those of use who are cool with him like that, goes into detail explaining how he would best construct a roster. He does admit that this type of analysis isn’t usually his forte, but frankly I’ve never seen much else to go on. MGL consults with an MLB team, has written a well regarded book on baseball analysis, and frankly is a smart dude. I’ll take that over the glorified guesswork that usually gets thrown around.

Here’s how the roster looks at the moment, courtesy of Padres.com:

One Tool In The Shed

I don’t see any problem with a player who functions only as a pinch runner and late inning defender (I think that you at least want both). I would think that you would want your pinch runner to be a good basestealer as well. Not all fast runners are good basestealers of course, especially young ones.

MGL’s first paragraph gets the Padres off to a good start, as it addresses and confirms the team’s most debatable roster construction choice. That is, giving Everth Cabrera, with no experience above A ball, a spot on the team. He has the speed to serve as a pinch runner, and hopefully his 73 stolen bases last season signify an ability to do so beyond just fast running. His defensive game saw mixed reviews over spring training, though he does have experience at both second and shortstop.

Scott Hairston serves as a solid defensive backup in the outfield as well, as he’s capable of passable defense in center.

The Good News Doesn’t Last Long

That being said, an NL team definitely needs more bench players than an AL team. No question about it. As we have said many times, teams do not pinch hit for the pitcher nearly enough. To do that, you need plenty of pinch hitters.

I also don’t think that any team needs 13 pitches, which you don’t normally see anyway. I doubt many teams need 12 pitchers either. I would probably carry 11 pitchers in the NL and 12 in the AL.

Well, shit. So much for the successful start. The Padres are currently using 13 pitchers on the roster, though I think that will change when Cliff Floyd comes off the DL.

Who Needs The Backup?

You really want to tailor your pinch hitters and bench players to your starting lineup. By that, I mean if you have a particularly bad defender in your starting lineup, it makes sense to have a good defender who can come in the late innings when you need to preserve a lead. If you have several weak hitting lefties in your lineup, it makes sense to have a strong right-handed hitting PH or two. Etc.

The team is constructed well enough in terms of platoons at the plate. They don’t have a capable left handed bench bat at the moment, but again I think that will change when Floyd returns. The outfield is manned by two capable lefty bats, plus two capable righty bats and Floyd. I suppose left handers up the middle would be nice, but so would bringing back brown uniforms, so I’ll pick my battles.

It bears mentioning that Chase Headley’s switch hitting ability and positional versatility leaves a lot of options. A backup third baseman isn’t needed, so there’s room to stock up on a myriad of middle infielders to throw against a wall and see what sticks.

Southpaw Middle Children

It also does not make sense to have fewer than 2 lefties in your pen. There are really only 3 reasons to make pitching changes in a game: One, to get the platoon advantage. For that, you want at least 2 RHRP and 2 LHRP. Having 1 LH and 6 RH relievers makes no sense at all. Anyway, the second reason for a pitching change is to pinch hit for the pitcher in the NL. The third reason is to bring in a better or worse reliever as the leverage of the game changes.

Raspberries. Not much commentary necessary here, the team has no lefties in the pen. MGL puts a heavy emphasis on platoon advantage, the Padres graduated from Screw The Pooch College on this one.

Allow Me To Preach Some More

Only occasionally will you need to remove a reliever because he is tired. Managers making pitching changes based on a pitcher getting “lit up” for an inning or two is generally a waste of time, although some people would disagree with me there.

Not much to do with the topic at hand, I’m only including this because it bugs me, and complaining about things on the Internet is the American way.

There’s no reason to think that just because a reliever gives up a couple hits in one inning that he is somehow rendered incompetent for that entire outing. Never in the history of mathematics has there been a smaller sample size than this situation. The dude is fine, unless you have a reason to change relievers, leave him in.

It’s All In Their Heads

Even with the bullpen, you need to tailor it to your team. By that, I mostly mean the number of relievers. If you play in a hitters park and/or your starters tend not to go deep in games, either because they are bad, they are not durable, or both, then you obviously need more relievers. In fact, on second thought, I might suggest that a team with good/durable relievers and/or that plays in a pitcher’s park, carry 11 pitchers, and the rest of the teams carry 12.

MGL, stop rubbing in the heartbreak! I hadn’t considered it before, but it makes total sense for a team in an outrageously pitching centered ballpark to carry more hitters on the bench. Someone should send Towers a fax, or a telegram on this one.

Mothers’ Basements Have Feelings Too

I am also a big fan or platooning. There are many teams who have a player at a certain position who is a marginal hitter (for that position). The best solution for that is to platoon with him another marginal hitter who can play that same position. In doing that, you also get a built-in tandem pinch hitting situation. Platooning is an underused strategy and for some reason has really fallen out of favor lately. I am not sure why.

Sounds like MGL would like the Padres’ outfield. He does mention other “soft” considerations, such as ego problems with platooning a star or former star player. I’ll leave room here for a Paul DePodesta joke about a Player Pride Index computer simulation.

While Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus weren’t particularly kind in their relative ranking of Padres prospects, Scout.com (home of Padres prospect site Mad Friars) is enjoying a cold glass of Padres kool-aid, Melvin Nieves style.

Our Padres appear in the upper echelon of teams when considering total players on the list, with 4 prospects in the top 100. First base monster Kyle Blanks tops the Padres farm hands at 39, unfortunately a bit low to be considered “elite”. This  confirms with about everyone else that the team lacks star caliber talent.

Right field prospect Jaff Decker follows Blanks, sliding in at 46th. Center fielder of the future Cedric Hunter and high upside pitcher Mat Latos (Only one T, I’m looking at you gaslamp ball) round out the list at 71 and 80, respectively.

Kyle Blanks was the lone representative in Baseball America’s list, at 50. Latos, outfielder Kellen Kulbacki, and Dominican pitching talent Adys Portillo are on the Baseball Prospectus board at 69, 84, and 100, respectively.

There is no question the farm isn’t where I’d like it to be, but this additional source paints the system in a better place than a certain other Sacrifice Bunt writer seems to think.

List here, breakdown here.

Mark Worrell, the right-handed relief pitcher with an unorthodox delivery who was acquired from St. Louis in exchange for shortstop Khalil Greene, will miss the 2009 season.

Worrell has returned to San Diego where he will have “Tommy John” elbow reconstruction surgery next Wednesday.

Reliever Worrell out for the season, needs reconstructive elbow surgery

I’m not sure what bothers me more: another Padres pitcher going down with T.J. surgery or how poorly the Khalil trade has already played out.

I think it’s the worry that the Kevin Towers we once knew and loved doesn’t exist anymore.

One of the two players the Padres received in return for traded shortstop Khalil Greene (the other player has yet to be named), reliever Mark Worrell has quite the backstory.

Drafted in 2004, Worrell saw success in the Cardinal farm system. Throwing a fastball and slider combination with a changeup mixed in against lefties, Worrell’s 2.96 and 4.07 tRA the past two AAA seasons demonstrates promise. Unfortunately for him, the Cards only gave him 13 innings to show is stuff at the show before shipping him back to AAA for the remainder of last year.

In a recent interview, the guy comes across as more than just a little unhappy about his playing time. Every response, regardless of the actual subject, seems to conclude with, “…and screw the Cardinals!”

I have to say it’s refreshing to see that kind of blatant honesty.

DM: You have an interesting delivery. How did your submarine delivery come about?

MW: I would drop down on occasions and as I grew older I realized how uncomfortable batters were when I did drop down. So I just stuck to it and guys aren’t squaring the ball against me. Look at the average against me. My average against left-handed batters opposed to right-handed batters is lower. I have done everything they have asked of me; I’ve worked hard on and off the field, like I said, and it is a little bit frustrating. Actually, it’s not a little but very frustrating.

So, about that submarine delivery. If I had to guess, I would say it was his unique delivery that held the right-hander from a meaningful opportunity from the Cards. They’re a traditional organization that has been less welcoming to submariners.

I had only heard reports on the funkyness of Mark’s delivery, until I was recently pointed toward a video showing the pitcher in action. I broke with my usual routine of making animated bouncing boob .GIFs to slow down and demonstrate Worrell’s delivery for maximum seeability.

Something about these animations pulls me in and hypnotizes my brain for a good few minutes.

My favorite frame:

You can see how well Worrell hides the ball, how his body seems further ahead in the delivery motion than his arm, and just how goofy he looks. A plus on all accounts in my book.

I definitely look forward to seeing what Worrell can accomplish given an opportunity, and would love to read more of his fantastic interviews. Except he isn’t allowed to get angry at the Padres. That’s the fans’ job.

Thanks to PadreFanForever for the first video, and Padre beat writer Corey Brock for the second. I hope someone more familiar with pitching mechanics than I can leave some thoughts in the comments.

Padres bolster infield with Eckstein

The internet’s least favorite player is officially a San Diego Padre.

It appears that David Eckstein will become the Padres fourth Opening Day second baseman since the departure of Mark Loretta, following in the depressing footsteps of Josh Barfield, Marcus Giles, and Tad Iguchi.

Eckstein’s spent the better part of the past eight seasons as a shortstop, although he moved to second after being acquired by Moorad’s old team in August. Eckstein’s defense at short has been steadily deteriorating and, according to Tangotiger’s fan scouting reports, his arm strength has been getting worse, bottoming out at 0 this year. Luckily for us, second base is closer to first than shortstop.

Offensively, Eckstein hasn’t done much. He posted a career high wOBA of .335 with the Cardinals in 2005. Never in his career has he posted a slugging percentage over .400 but he’s had some good on-base percentages. Over the past three seasons, his OBP has been .350, which is something the team hasn’t gotten from the middle infield since 2004.

For 2009, the projections for Eckstein look like:

Not good, but that OBP might be a silver lining. And he’ll be back making under $1 million, so we’ve got that going for us.

Something else interesting to come out of this is the appearance of solidity Eckstein gives in the 4 hole. Towers has spent the past couple of months collecting second baseman. Eckstein is the latest name on a list that includes Luis Rodriguez, Travis Denker, Chris Burke, Edgar Gonzalez, and Matt Antonelli. With Eckstein taking over at second, Rodriguez would seem to be the team’s shortstop going into the new season, and Antonelli will likely start the year in Portland. From there, Burke and Gonzalez are utility guys who can play all over the infield and in the outfield, with Burke owning 500 innings experience in centerfield. This leaves Denker, who projects to be a monster, left needing a big Spring Training.

Jake Peavy has a secret buried deep within his 2008 performance. The secret isn’t easy to see, although that has to be true because it’s what defines a secret.

Sabermetricians are pretty good at finding this type of hidden knowledge. One method of finding truth and escaping prejudices in a player’s pitching ability is to use a statistic called tRA. This metric breaks the result of every plate appearance down to a level that allows us to accurately assign credit or blame to the pitcher.

Some of these plate appearance results tRA takes into account are line drives, fly balls, pop-ups, home runs, strikeouts, and walks. Again, the purpose here is to value as accurately as possible the influence on run prevention that pitchers have direct control over. tRA is park and league neutral, and set to the same Runs per 9 innings scale as ERA, a statistic that does poor job predicting future success compared to tRA.

This is a similar process to the FIP stat, though tRA incorporates more detail. Here is more information on tRA, along with some background from Dave Cameron about why ERA isn’t as great as you might think.

Ok, I promised a Jake Peavy secret, and you want one ASAP, am I right? Here you go:

See that there? See the number that jumps out a little bit? Maybe a little jumping? Holy crap. I flipped a lid when I saw that 2008 number.

Seriously, don’t tell anyone. Call me paranoid and delusional, (ok, I’ll call myself paranoid and delusional) but it isn’t an accident this wasn’t posted until after the deals with Atlanta and Chicago fell through.

Though he probably employs more complex metrics than tRA, this information clearly corroborates why Sandy Alderson has held tight to his position that trading Jake is first and foremost a baseball move.

Of course Peavy’s unsightly tRA isn’t the only reason to make the trade. As we’ve mentioned in previous posts, his age, the many needs within the organization, a poor chance the team will compete next year, and the injury risk of pitchers are all motivating factors.

When you couple this reasoning with the the Padres passing on trade opportunities with two teams, and at least one passable offer from the Braves, it makes me think that someone making the case that trading Jake is primarily about lowering payroll has a lot more explaining to do.

An ERA that seems likely an abberation, and the other reasons mentioned above mean that now is a good time to make the right deal for Jake Peavy. Unfortunately, neither the Cubs nor the Braves seem prepared to offer value the Padres prefer. Hopefully Jake’s hidden slump doesn’t manifest itself in a higher ERA come July next season.