Here’s my take on the Mat Latos / Anthony Rizzo trades.

“…we felt that Alonso might fare a little better at Petco Park. The acquisition of Alonso provided us the flexibility to make this trade and acquire a quality, young power arm in Cashner.”

The Anthony Rizzo trade intersects the Mat Latos trade in many ways, and they deserve to be viewed together. When Yonder Alonso was first acquired in that deal with the Cincinnati Reds, analysts were split on whether he, or incumbent Anthony Rizzo was the better long term investment at first base. Keith Law, for instance, prefers Rizzo’s upside, while prospect expert John Sickels questions Rizzo’s performance risk.

What is clear is that Josh Byrnes favors Alonso to Rizzo. So lets include that in a new breakdown of the two trades. When looked at on the whole, here are the benefits our Padres get in exchange for trading Mat Latos:

Yasmani Grandal, Brad Boxberger,  Andrew Cashner, Edinson Volquez, and the difference between Anthony Rizzo and Yonder Alonso.

Allow me to summarize:

• A catcher with an above average bat and an average glove — a rare player and excellent prospect no doubt, but not elite level
• Two solid relievers with good upside but question marks
• A once promising pitcher who may turn things around, but may have attitude issues
• However you judge the difference between Anthony Rizzo and Yonder Alonso

That’s the price Josh Byrnes and the Padres paid for Mat Latos, an elite pitching talent who is a likely rotation anchor for years to come.

Looking at the two trades combined is like a black light in a living room. Mind expanding.

The key to the trade becomes the difference in value between the two first basemen, and consequently, our faith in the Padres front office in making that evaluation. If the value of Alonso over Rizzo isn’t much, it sure puts a damper those deals.

The difference

I’m relatively agnostic on the question of who is the preferred first baseman. Remember, the value doesn’t come from the player himself, but the difference between the two. I’m skeptical of the Padres clear choice of Alonso, no doubt, as public opinions from people I respect seemed pretty mixed on the issue of who is the better player. But none of those people work as the general manager of a baseball team, or have access to the resources available to those who do.

Rizzo

What grinds my gears is the “Rizzo has slow bat speed” amateur scouting crowd. Those opinions were of course shared only after Rizzo’s slow start. And it’s a common explanation to bad performance from the scouting peanut gallery. Poor results at the plate? Must be the bat speed. I’ll believe the bat speed analysis when you point it out it before a hitter’s average tanks.

So who is Anthony Rizzo? He probably has more upside than Alonso, but with less of a guarantee.

Cashner

As for Andrew Cashner, he could become a very good reliever, potentially a top closer. And for reasons I don’t understand, the baseball world still values such players highly, as evidenced by Jonathan Papelbon’s 4 year / $50 million deal with the Phillies. Still, teams, especially rebuilding teams, shouldn’t be trading top prospects or elite starters for relievers. I just don’t get it.

And yes, he throws 100mph. We know. That little factoid has become part of his name in every writeup, like Chris Young’s name became Chris Young (he’s 6’10”!). Besides, Fernando Rodney’s fastball averages the same speed as Cashner’s, and it would take more than a couple $5 beers to forget our sorrows if Rodney is what Cashner becomes. A little more in the way of analysis would be great, thanks.

Conclusion

The Latos trade made sense, but it still hurt (I think I’m missing an analogy to Padres fandom here). Lets hope Josh Byrnes’s analysis includes something his homeboy Jed Hoyer missed out on, because that difference will be the key to these trades.

| Trader Byrnes (alternate title: Josh Byrnes as Ray playing MVP Baseball 2005) is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

Lets talk about the given reasons given for the boo?

“The player is paid handsomely and isn’t performing.”

Sure. Does the player need to be informed of his poor performance? Probably not. Will booing encourage better performance? The boo will most likely create resentment between a player and his supposed supporters. All of a sudden, playing on the road becomes more friendly than playing at home. This won’t help the situation.

“It’s the effort being booed. Play harder to earn my respect.”

I see. Poor on field performance means there’s poor effort. What if the player were to throw his helmet around? Punch a locker? Can I assume the boos will stop?

Suppose we give the booer a bat and helmet and put him on the field. Surely his performance will be poor. Easily mitigated by returning the boo favor. Problem solved!

“We must send a message! We fans will not tolerate poor play!”

By booing the player? But why is the player on the field in the first place? What player would you prefer given the relative price of players and money available to retain their services? Who decides how much money is available for those services? If you feel the money available to retain players’ services is unsatisfactory, does buying a ticket and booing a player send the right message?

The discussion about the Tao of Boo, unfortunately, doesn’t go anywhere. People boo so they feel better. They boo to demonstrate to others that their team’s poor play doesn’t reflect on their own self worth. They boo to create a sense of control. They boo out of frustration. It’s understandable, but doesn’t accomplish much.

Or, by all means, wear brown to the ballpark. That will totally motivate Brad Hawpe.

| The Tao of Boo is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

Don’t get me wrong, I like Headley fine. I’ll be the first to ring the “pitching and defense” bell, and Headley was as good as it got at third base this year. But Ludwick? He’s no slouch himself (career UZR/150 of 5.1 round the outfield) and he’s the team’s only legit middle of the order hitter other than Adrian. If we move Ludwick, who’s going to hit cleanup?

The better question is why we think Ludwick should hit cleanup hitter himself.

In 2008, Ludwick made a name for himself by hitting 37 home runs but he’s hit 39 total over the past two seasons. Despite his 154 in 08, Ludwick has a career wRC+ of 117 and Bill James projects a 115 for him in 2011. And he’ll likely make in excess of $7 million next year.

Ludwick’s been a starter for four years and throwing out his yet to be duplicated 2008, he’s been a 2-win player. Last year, Headley was somewhere between a 3.7 and a 4.6-win player, depending on if you prefer Baseball-Reference or Fangraphs’ numbers. In 1,675 plate appearances, Headley’s only hit 32 home runs and while he plans on hitting the gym this winter, even if he doesn’t, his glove should still provide enough value to this team to make him a keeper.

It’s easy to look at these Padres and think that something needs to be done about the offense, but they weren’t that bad offensively last year. Though it ranked 20th in the league, the team’s wRC+ was a respectable 97. They fell apart in September (82 wRC+), and Headley was especially awful (58 wRC+), but that likely speaks more to conditioning and depth that it does talent and ability. With the exception of Tejada and Torrealba, the team will be bringing back all of the same hitters worth bringing back and hopefully that means more of the same.

In fairness to Ludwick, he was never who we expected him to be. He’s not the -0.3-win Ughwick we saw in August and September, but he’s not someone who will scare pitchers into giving Adrian some fastballs. The potential is there (he hit 18 home runs away from Busch Stadium last year) but while Maybin is a low-risk roll of the dice, Ludwick has $7 million riding on his. With only $10 million available to fill holes at second, short, in the rotation and on the bench, is the smarter risk to go into the crevasse, opening a hole in left to better fill all the others?

Probably. But I’ll defer to Jed on this one.

UPDATE: According to Jeff Fletcher, the Padres will offer Ludwick arbitration. Here we go.

| Ughwick is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

Completely blowing past my recommendations, Jed Hoyer went out and acquired Cameron Maybin from the Florida Marlins in return of Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica.

A former megaprospect who was thrice ranked in Baseball America’s top 10, Maybin’s had trouble transferring his success to the majors. In 610 plate appearances, all over the course of four different seasons, Maybin has a career OPS of .692, a step down from the .878 he posted in Triple-A. It’s easy to be cynical about this acquisition but this is yet another move that reinforces my faith in Hoyer.

Here’s what the word on Maybin was before the big leagues beat his reputation down:

Maybin is a prototypical five-tool player still learning how to turn his potential into performance. He has tremendous bat speed with plenty of power potential in his frame. Though willing to take walks, he needs to improve his strike-zone judgment. His plus speed can change games on the bases and particularly in the outfield. He covers a ton of ground and his above-average arm plays very well in center.

Top 50 Prospects (MLB.com)

The good news is that Maybin hasn’t lost any limbs or gotten addicted to any drugs since that was written, so he’s still the same player he was. The bad news is that he hasn’t really improved his strike-zone judgement and he hasn’t developed as an outfielder. In his 548 at-bats, Maybin has struck out 172 times, or 31.4% of the time, and he’s not getting better, having a strike out rate of 31.6% in 2010. And despite his career UZR of 5.1 in center, Maybin’s left some question mark out there as well. In his analysis of the trade, Tom Krasovic noted that Maybin frustrated the Marlins with his “dull defensive instincts.” If I may be a little pretentious, Maybin sounds like a lump of coal who’s a good squeeze away from turning into a diamond.

Moving on to the other part of the trade, Webb and Mujica were no small price to be paid. Both pitchers played their parts in the team’s league-leading bullpen, and Webb especially showed signs of being something special, but five-tool center fielders don’t come cheap. With young guys like Gregerson and Frieri already in the back of the bullpen, and younger guys like Scribner waiting in the wings, Hoyer took a chance and made a move from depth to fill a need.

What the Maybin acquisition means for the rest of the team is yet to be seen. The risk of Maybin not coming through seems too big to ignore and the team will have to prepare accordingly. In his write-up on the Maybin acquisition, Bill Center mentioned that two of Chris Denorfia, Scott Hairston, and Tony Gwynn, Jr. are likely to be non-tendered. Hairston’s cut seems assured, as he will begin making much more money than he’s worth, leaving Norf and AJ. Center singles out AJ, saying, “Gwynn was praised for his defensive play in center last season. But the left-handed hitter batted only .204 in 289 at-bats with three homers, 20 RBI and a .304 on-base percentage.” Ignore for a second that I’m the biggest AJ stan on the internet (do people still say “stan?”) and think about this for a second: if Maybin’s struggles continue, do you really want Bud Black running Chris Denorfia back out into center? Me neither.

The team could still slide Venable over from right field, although they’ve been incredibly hesitant to do so, or they could look elsewhere. In the free agent class, there are some former Padres (Jody Gerut, Jim Edmonds), some aging sluggers (Jim Edmonds [again!], Andruw Jones), and some Atlanta Braves rejects (Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera). It should be interesting to see what direction Hoyer goes with the bench.

Overall, this was a good weekend for the Padres. For an affordable price, the Padres were able to acquire an All-Star talent at one of the hardest positions in baseball to fill. Nothing is for certain, but then that’s the Padres for you.

| There’s your answer, fishbulb is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

It doesn’t look good for the incumbents. Eckstein had something of a career year this season, as his WAR of 2.0 was his highest since he 2005. Offensively, he’s a hole but he’s made himself into a decent defensive second baseman, a position that can handle his poor arm strength. Hairston has a similar offensive ineptitude but while Eckstein’s made himself decent defensively, Hairston’s made himself good. His career UZR/150 of 6.1 ranks number one in this group.

Offensively, Hudson is the winner here, though Lopez might be close enough to be a better bargain (Hudson made $5M last year; Lopez made $1M). Hudson separates himself defensively, though. While James didn’t do defensive predictions, Hudson has a career UZR/150 of 2.2 and is generally well regarded. Lopez, on the other hand, has a career -1.0. The Padres did show an interest in Lopez after St. Louis cut him loose so if you’re Christopher Nolan and like a lot of realism in your dreams, he might be a guy to keep an eye on.

Here’s where I admit that I crammed Juan Uribe into this group because the number of 2B options out there is weaker than at SS. Whereas Eckstein’s arm can hide at second base, Uribe’s would go to waste playing so close to the first baseman. And, truth be told, he’s a good shortstop, so if we were to acquire Uribe, we’d have to get someone else pretty good to bump him to second. Someone like…

Listing Everth is really nothing more than lip service. I’d be very surprised if he doesn’t start (and end) the year in the minors. I want to believe in him, but he has made it hard.

Tejada is the other incumbent, though I suppose Hairston deserves a shout out (career 2.1 UZR/150 in a little over 1,000 innings). With Tejada, it’s easy to be caught up in the player we saw in August and September (111 wRC+, -0.3 UZR) but it’s doubtful we saw the real Miguel Tejada. James, for instance, sees his offensive production regressing and defensively, he’s always been a below average guy (-3.4 UZR/150). For $6 million or so, is it worth it?

Like Tejada, Orlando Cabrera is another guy who seems to get a long way on his name and reputation. He’s never been a real offensive player, getting by mostly with his glove which, while still above-average, seems to be slowing down. Cincinnati recently declined his $4 million option, so he’ll likely be cheaper than Tejada while providing similar-yet-different production.

Neither Bartlett nor Hardy are free agents, but they’re both non-tender candidates who might be available in a trade. Bartlett, who we once traded for Brian Buchanan never forget, built his reputation as a glove man but his production has been slipping over the past couple of years. Whether these were flukes or age catching up to him quick is yet to be seen and while James thinks he’ll be average with the bat, is he worth the $5 million (or so) risk?

Looking at the projections, it’s easy to think Hardy is worth the risk and it gets even better when you look at his defensive numbers. Over the course of his career, Hardy has a +11 UZR/150, which is pretty great. He might be expensive, but he’ll earn his paycheck. That is, if he can stay on the field. Hardy only made it into 101 games this season, but he was still worth 2.4 wins. With a good enough backup, Hardy might be the kind of risk a team with one year left of a megastar should take. Especially if his offensive production opens up a spot for a certain poor hitting, phenomenal fielding center fielder.

Oh, AJ. If I really was Jed, this conversation would be over. Tony the younger would be installed in centerfield, free to make all the amazing catches he’d like. But I’m not and he surely won’t, so let’s look at the other four.

Ellsbury’s is a popular name when the conversation turns toward trading Adrian and he is an elite base stealing threat, but I’m not sure he’s a center fielder. He has a UZR/150 of 0.2 in a little over two thousand innings, but the Red Sox brought in Mike Cameron to push Ellsbury to left last year and as much as I love Mikey C., that’s a little telling, isn’t it? Especially because Ellsbury’s not as young as he seems. He’ll be arbitration eligible next winter and with his 136 career stolen bases, I’d bet the arbitrator will like him and that’s no good for us small market folk.

A younger option would be Colby Rasmus, whose very public spat with Tony LaRussa may or may not have put him on the block. If he’s available, I’m not sure the Padres have enough to go get him. Surely the conversation would start with Simon Castro, but where would it end? A player with Rasmus’ potential seems worth whatever price St. Louis asks, but the question becomes whether or not we’ll be able to hang once some deeper-pocketed teams get involved.

Upton’s a more realistic change-of-scenery guy, though also arbitration eligible next year. While he’s never fully lived up to his potential, he’s become an excellent center fielder (career UZR/150 5.7) and he’s still only 26. Think of him as a better case Venable, with the potential to be a 30-40 guy. He could also remain a 10-40 guy but then if it was easy, everyone would do it.

Then there’s Davis, the bubble burster. Not as dreamy as the rest, he’s a decent fielder (2.6 UZR/150) who’s stolen 91 bases over the past two years. He’s the wild card, and a good one at that because put him on a field in Peoria with Dave Roberts and who knows what will come out of it.

And that’s it. I hope you found this helpful. I sort of feel like a jerk for taking you past the bike aisle when you’re likely to get some cans of soup for Christmas, but such is dreaming. Enjoy it while it lasts, before the season begins and we’re stuck with reality.

| The Sacrifice Cheat Sheet: We need to go deeper is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

“I saw strides this year in his overall handling of the pitchers, handling of the game, and keeping the focus throughout the game,” manager Bud Black said.

“Just his overall in-game awareness, I saw progress. He really made strides on defensive end. I thought he threw better, much more under control and with accuracy.”

Oh yeah, the catcher also has to deal with the base running aspect of the game. Hundley’s .293 CS% would rank him fifth among qualified catchers (out of 13) and is a personal best. But then, who cares? If your beef with Hundley is because you don’t think he makes a good backstop, I’m not sure I can sway your opinion. But if you’re upset over questions concerning the Padres offense and see Hundley as another problem, keep reading.

This season, Hundley finished the year with a wRC+ of 99, which is down one point from his 100 in 2009. For those who don’t know, that makes Hundley incredibly average but consistently so. Of all catchers with 300 plate appearances, Hundley’s 99 was good for 15th out of 29, again pretty average. He was well below the Mauers and Poseys of the league but well ahead of the Kendalls and Bengie Molinas. He was below Torrealba (107 wRC+, 12th in the league) but keep in mind that Torrealba had a career year this season, at age 32. His career wRC+ of 85 is below Hundley’s 93. Again, something to keep in mind if you find yourself getting upset that the team let Torrealba slip away (assuming that they do).

More to my point, of the 17 players who received 100 at-bats from the Padres, Hundley’s 99 was good for ninth. Is this guy good at hitting the middle or what? His WAR of 1.5 also ranked the same. Hundley’s no Adrian, he’s not even Chase Headley, but he has more in common with Chase than he does with Everth Cabrera or Scott Hairston or some of the real holes this 2010 squad had. Jed Hoyer has his work cut out for him if he’s going to repeat this year’s 90-win success story. He’s got holes up the middle and Ryan Ludwick is going to have to do much better than he did after coming over from St. Louis, but Hundley will make Jed’s job easier. Leave him alone and he’ll do well to not mess things up.

It might not be the greatest of praise but for a team with the Sisyphean nature that this club has, it’ll do. Or, at least, it should.

| Nick Hundley is not your enemy is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

09. Tony Gwynn, Jr., CF

10. Tim Stauffer, RP/SP

From the acclaimed filmmakers who brought you “Stauffer: The Last Honest Man” comes a heartbreaking story of the gifts and the curses that fathers past down to their sons.

In the sleepy town of San Diego, Tony Gwynn was a king. Honest and just, he ruled over his kingdom with a fair hand. He loved his people and in return they loved him. After years of loyal service, King Tony stepped down to devote his time to the youth of his community, leaving his kingdom in a state of flux. His son, Prince Tony, was away at school and his birthright waited. And waited. After school, the Prince took time to see the world, escaping to the great land of Milwaukee before returning to San Diego.

As humble as his father, the Prince refused to be handed the keys, choosing instead to work for them. He excelled in ways his father never had but he failed in the ways his father had built his legend on and the people of the land had trouble embracing the young Prince’s style.

Coming this winter, “In the Shadow of My Father: The Tony Gwynn, Jr. Story”

—

That really got away from me, but the point stands. AJ will always be his father’s son and his legacy will always be tied directly to his father. I always thought it was strange that the children of legends would even consider following in the parent’s footsteps but I suppose growing up in a life makes you grow a little fond of it. But what happens if your best turns out to be great but not great enough?

If you see your uncles next month round the Thanksgiving table and you tell them how great Tony, Sr. is, they’ll probably tell you that you’re being condescending. But if you tell them how great Tony, Jr. is, you’ll get a better conversation going.

AJ is a career .244 hitter, ninety-four points lower than his father’s .336. The younger’s career .291 is not only eight points lower than his father’s .371, but it’s much lower than the average .333. He’s not a good hitter. It’d probably be charitable to call him a bad hitter. But my goodness, can he play centerfield.

I’m not even going to bother to show you AJ’s offensive statistics from this past year. Trust me when I say that they’re incredibly bad, but trust me when I say that they don’t matter too much. Remember this number: 12.9. That’s how many defensive runs AJ saved above-average in 2010. For all center fielders, 12.9 was the third best mark in the league. And for a pitching staff that was middle of the road, all things considered, it may have been even more valuable.

If you didn’t know, UZR isn’t perfect. AJ’s standing as a great defender isn’t written in stone, not yet at least. But the fact remains that Tony Gwynn, Jr. has saved 18.5 runs above average in 1,842 innings in centerfield, and he brought a reliability to the most important position. Remember Chris Denorfia in center? Remember his diving attempts, few of which actually ended in catches? How’d he make you feel out there? And how did AJ make you feel? As a basement nerd, I’m supposed to ignore the visceral aspects of baseball–but I’m rebelling. Sometimes, how you feel matters. I might call Darren Balsley and get his opinion on that. But I digress.

AJ is not his father. He may have the name and his number may only be one away, but there’s only one Tony Gwynn, Sr. But for me, I want you to tell your uncle that’s all right. Tell him to trust me.

| The Top 10 Padres of ’10: No. 09 is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

10. Tim Stauffer, RP/SP

Tell me if you’ve heard this one before:

A down and out athlete, whose sport is of no real consequence, finds that he’s got one more shot at glory. Maybe he used to be someone people believed in — but after years of questionable returns, his goodwill has dried up and now it’s on him to make others believe. So he battles back, puts one foot in front of the other, and begins on the path to redemption. He fights and claws until one day he makes it. Then his manager tells the world, “Tim Stauffer is too valuable to start.”

It’s easy to forget now that there are better things to talk about, but Stauffer missed the entire 2008 season. Looking at his numbers, it’s easy to assume it was due to shame. In 2007, he spent the full year in Portland and only managed a 4.34 ERA, which was actually a step up from his 2006 5.53 ERA. He was a 25-year-old former first round pick, fourth overall, and he was floundering in Triple-A. So he sat out 2008, either from embarrassment or his alleged shoulder injury, and came back to take it easy in 2009. That year, he only played in 16 minor league games, starting four, but he did better, amassing a 2.14 ERA between Portland and San Antonio before getting the call. He packed up his 6.37 career ERA (to that point) and came down to San Diego, where he made 14 starts for the same team that gave ample opportunities to Chad Gaudin and Josh Geer. It seemed to be something of an audition and Stauffer delivered, contributing a 3.58 ERA, a 4.67 FIP, and a 4.72 xFIP. Not exactly Cy Young stuff but for a team that gave 36 starts to Gaudin and Geer, it would be enough to earn Stauffer a look-see for 2010.

The writing was on the wall in Arizona this spring, as Stauffer got into six games but only started one. At the beginning of the season, there was no room in the rotation. When Chris Young went down following his first start, it was Wade LeBlanc who took his spot. During the first week of the season, Stauffer came into two games: taking over for a struggling Jon Garland on April 5th and helping the Padres win an extra inning contest on the 10th, his biggest game of year according to WPA. He pitched well, striking out five and surrendering zero runs in five combined innings of work, and this must of stuck with the team.

Contrary to popular belief, it was Corey Brock — not Bud Black who said that “Stauffer might be too valuable to start,” but print the legend, right? Stauffer was too good to start, a compliment so wild that it could only make sense. At first, it kind of worked. LeBlanc had a strong April and on May 11th, Stauffer went down with appendicitis, which kept him out of San Diego for two months. When he came back, he continued to do what he do, giving the Padres good work out of the pen.

Then came the 10-game losing streak.

As the season wore on, LeBlanc’s hot start faded away. He threw a 6.47 ERA in August, a performance that’s not going to cut it in a pennant race. Making matters worse, Kevin Correia was unable to repeat his 2009 success. After suffering a personal tragedy earlier in the year, Correia’s was a story to root for, but in a pennant race, moral victories have to take a backseat. And so, on September 6th, the 136th game of the season, Stauffer started the hill against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Nine innings later, the team’s 10-game losing streak had come to an end. While Stauffer didn’t pick up the win, or even reach the fifth inning, these are just facts that any good screenwriter skips over when it comes time to put pen to paper. Stauffer kept going. Other than a rough go in St. Louis, he was lights out. He was the second best pitcher on the team in September. With luck not on Mat Latos’ side, you could make the argument that he was the best.

But then, budding screenwriters, September means nothing if it doesn’t give way to October. Just as all Little Leaguer’s dream, Stauffer was in line for an important October start. Granted, it was still a regular season game, but the Padres were down two to the Giants with two left to play. The Giants. In San Francisco. Stauffer, like the legend he’s become, came through when his team needed him the most, striking out four in six and a third. He allowed only one run before giving the game to the bullpen, who shut the door and put the team one back with one to go. Obviously, that last game didn’t go so well, but it will simply be an epilogue at the end of “Stauffer: The Movie.”

Tim ended the year with a 1.85 ERA (199 ERA+), 3.02 FIP, and 3.74 xFIP. Perhaps the best thing for Stauffer to nail to his wall this winter is this:

(Jed) Hoyer wishes that he and Buddy would have put Tim Stauffer back into the rotation earlier. That’s the one thing that keeps him up at night. It could have brought them 2 or 3 more wins. They waited longer than they should have. They waited until the rosters expanded.

GM Jed Hoyer: “There’s a reason we didn’t make the playoffs. We obviously weren’t quite good enough.”

The man who was once too valuable to start saw his stifling become his general manager’s biggest regret. For a team that finished one game out from a postseason shot, those two or three wins might have been the most valuable of the year. But we’ll never know. Next year, with only Latos and Clayton Richard guaranteed spots in the rotation, there would seem to be a shot for Stauffer to finally live up to his first round potential. For his sake, our sake, and for the sake of a sequel, let’s hope we find out.

| The Top 10 Padres of ’10: No. 10 is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

As of right now, the Padres have about $10 million locked up after Adrian Gonzalez’s option and all of the pre-arbitration eligible players. These are no-brainers, leaving decisions about the other thirteen or so roster spots on the 25.

The first three choices involve Chris Young, Jon Garland, and Yorvit Torrealba. As surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, the San Diego Padres will not be paying Chris Young $8.5 million in 2011. They might bring him back at far far less, but his option will not be picked up. As far as the other pitchers concerned, though he’s no All-Star, Garland is who he is: a pitcher who will give the team 200 innings and an above-average ERA. And with the premium this team seems to have put on chemistry, his veteran leadership and Been Thereness will likely come in handy. Six point seven five million dollars handy? I’ll say yes. Same goes with Torrealba. Three point five million dollars might be a bit much for a platoon catcher, especially given how deep this year’s free agent class is in backup catchers, but Torrealba has a rapport going with the team and the pitchers. Why change horses? This brings us to $20 million or so.

Now we come to the arbitration eligible guys. Scott Hairston, Heath Bell, and Ryan Ludwick are all on their third go, Mike Adams is on his second, and Tim Stauffer, Edward Mujica, and Anthony Junior are here for the first time. Immediately, I have to imagine that Hairston will be non-tendered. He’s just very replaceable, with Aaron Cunningham and Chris Denorfia more than capable of doing what he does. Then we have the first timers, who will probably not make much more than $3.5 million between them. Of the three, Mujica’s the most likely to play somewhere else next year, as it’s not a high price to pay for a starter (Stauffer) or a superb defender (Junior). Twenty three million. Adams will come back and I’m guessing he’ll get around $3.5 million himself, a little less than closer Heath Bell got at the same time. Let’s say twenty seven million, before Heath Bell and Ryan Ludwick are counted.

Hoyer’s already committed to bringing Ludwick back, and we’ve already commented that we agree with the decision. Even if Ludwick does end up a bust, $7.5 million, which I’m guessing he’ll get, is a fair price for someone with Ludwick’s potential. Think of it this way: who else can the Padres go get for that much money to hit twenty home runs and play above-average defense? Looking at the pickings, they look rather slim. Thirty five million.

Depending on what number the Padres payroll digits ends in, we’re looking at $5 to $15 million left in the piggy bank. And that also leaves us with a hole at second and question marks at short and center. Theoretically, the Padres could plug Everth Cabrera in at short and AJ in at center, but then we’d have to go back in time and pull Jeff Kent out of 2001 to get enough offense to be credible. And plutonium’s still expensive. They could go with Miguel Tejada at short, but he’s neither a good player anymore nor cheap. Hoyer’s going to have to get creative to fill these holes, especially if he plans on paying Heath Bell $8 million.

This is were I reassure everyone that Bell is a great player. He’s been worth two wins in three of his last four seasons, and this year he was the third most valuable closer in baseball, behind Carlos Marmol of the Cubs and Brian Wilson of the Giants. He’s the rightful successor to the Hoffy throne, but unfortunately he’s gotta go. At the price he’ll command, and that others such as Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon have commanded before him, he’ll become the highest paid player on the team next year and such a small market team can not afford to invest so much of its payroll into such a speciality position. Especially when Mike Adams can come in and do the job with little to no drop off. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Bell might bring back something good in return.

Michael Bourn. Franklin Gutierrez. Adam LaRoche. These are just a couple names of players who have been acquired for premium relief pitching. With a pitcher of Bell’s caliber, the Padres have the opportunity to build upon their 2010 success. It just seems that Bell’s more valuable on the open market than he is in a Padres uniform.

*Duh.

| Hey hey, ho ho is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |

Last night, Latos set a major league record by pitching in his fifteenth straight game of five innings or more while allowing two runs or less. The last time he gave up three runs was on June 4th, which was also the last time he allowed three runs in a game since April 26th. Since May 1st, his ERA has been 1.64. He may be young, but Latos has muscled his way into Great talk.

I don’t know about you, fellow Padres fans, but my barometer for great Padre pitching is Jake Peavy. The break up may have been less than amicable but he’s still the greatest Padre I’ve ever seen toe the rubber in the first inning. So how does new hotness measure up?

Here’s a sampling of what the tattooed one has done this season, at age 22:

Not bad. For starters, let’s look at how Jake did at age 22.

I think it’s safe to say that Latos found his feet a little earlier. Now, Jake’s Cy Young season.

Latos actually holds his own. Jake’s got him at FIP and xFIP, the big kahunas of the moment, strike outs, and WAR (it should be noted here that WAR is a cumulative stat on Latos is on pace for less than 200 innings this year) but Latos takes ERA+, walks, and WPA so far. His K/BB also bests Jake’s, 3.95 to 3.53. It’s highly doubtful that Latos will get the award this year, Johnson and Halladay have just been too dominant, but that takes nothing away from what he’s accomplished this year.

In case you were wondering, Latos has set career highs in every category this year. How do they compare to Jake’s career highs, you ask? Let’s find out.

With the exception of WPA, Latos still has a ways to go before he reaches Jake but he’s off to a fast-start. It should be interesting to see how much ground he gains next year, don’t you agree Tom Verducci?

| Is Mat Latos better than Jake Peavy? is a post from The Sacrifice Bunt |