Last month, Black was pressed to name his batting order for this season, and we’ll forgive it because he was pressed. To further help bail Black out, I have come up with a proper batting order for the skip.

1. Everth Cabrera, SS

Don’t worry Bud, I’m not going to get all weird on you. The baseball constitution dictates that every team must utilize a fast player to leadoff (I think) and I will gladly go along with it. Everth is the fastest player on the team, but he can also get on-base, if only relatively so. Last year, he had an OBP of .342 with a walk rate of 10.5%, and most major projections see him keeping up his pace if not exceeding it. I can see questions arising regarding Cabrera’s age and lack of experience, but what could it hurt to challenge him?

2. Tony Gwynn, Jr./Scott Hairston, CF

AJ and Hairston, Sr. should see time in a platoon this year and they bring differing skill sets. Against right-handed pitching last year, AJ posted an OBP of .379. While his slugging was only .385, he still had a wRC+ of 118 in the split. At .378, Hairston has a similar OBP in his left-handed split, but his slugging was .543. During his previous stay, he was Adrian’s M&M buddy in the middle of the order, but another of my concessions to Bud is that one spot in the order is equal to one position on the field – the center fielders are hitting second. And with Hairston, the heart of the order could frequently find themselves at-bat with runners in scoring position, if not already in.

3. Chase Headley, 3B

If I didn’t put Headley in this spot, I would’ve put him at second. Not only do I value his OBP higher in the order, I don’t trust him hitting behind Adrian. Now that he’s back at third, Headley should hypothetically see an improvement in his offense: he’ll be able to concentrate more on his hitting as a result of concentrating less on his foreign position and he’ll be able to put back on the weight he lost to better run around the outfield. Add to that Headley’s hot-ish second half (.798 OPS) and there’s reason to have confidence in Headley.

4. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B

Right?

5. Kyle Blanks, LF

Stay with me.

On one hand, I feel like there’s no explanation necessary. Last year, in 148 at-bats, Blanks hit 10 home runs with a wOBA of .372. Stretch that out over a full season and Blanks could hit more than 30 home runs. That would make Blanks only the second player to accomplish such a feat in Petco Park. This guy has prodigal power. But then those are the only 148 at-bats of Blanks’ career. He could still be a bust, or we could be lucky and he could just suffer through a sophomore slump but if it doesn’t work out, the team could still try Headley or Venable, or move Hairston to a more permanent position.

6. Will Venable, RF

I’ll let you know right now, the batting order gets pretty predictable from here on out. While I’m not a big believer in Venable, he has 20 homer potential and he’s left-handed, which only makes sense coming after the right-handed Blanks.

7. Nick Hundley, C

I’m not going to try to sell you on Hundley. It comes down to not being:

8. David Eckstein, 2B

I feel that it’d be better if I didn’t say anything at all.

01. Donavan Tate, OF
02. Simon Castro, RHP
03. James Darnell, 3B
04. Jaff Decker, OF
05. Wynn Pelzer, RHP
06. Logan Forsythe, 3B
07. Cory Luebke, LHP
08. Edinson Rincon, 3B
09. Aaron Poreda, LHP
10. Lance Zawadzki, SS

Your 2010 San Diego Padres Top 10 Prospects! Unfortunately, as there is none of my own opinion in this, I can’t give you any sort of meaningful analysis. But then that goes against the point of lists anyway.

Photo by Dirk Hansen

Padre blogger and prospect Matt Antonelli has earned himself a promotion, at least in the blogging world for now. He’ll now be answering questions at Shawn Anderson’s The Hall of Very Good. I wish I had thought of asking Matt before Shawn did.

Antonelli’s interaction with fans and online media has developed into a special relationship. In less than a year, he’s set himself apart from the other names in the organization depth chart and become a player I feel connected to, and root for.

It’s not just simply having accounts on Twitter, Facebook , or writing a blog. It’s about firing that publicist, pulling back the curtain, posting funny videos or photos, and sharing actual stories about who you really are. Don’t hide behind a few cliches in an article from a beat reporter, they’ll only tell their story, not yours. Put your real self out there. Be genuine.

I hope more young players learn from Matt’s example. I doubt it would earn him a call-up on its own, but if David Eckstein still has a starting job then personality has got to count for something.

At last week’s Town Hall meeting, the Padres told the crowd that they were committed to the name on the front of the jersey and not the ones on the back, and Jeff Moorad was later quoted in the Union-Tribune saying “I think the fairest description of our point of view is that we continue to be committed to doing what’s best for the long-term interest of the organization. As a result, no player is untouchable. And while we’re mindful of players’ individual popularity, we won’t put one player ahead of the long-term interests of the club.” Jed Hoyer gives a more diplomatic response, saying that it is still early in the process, but it would appear that the writing is on the wall.

The details have yet to come out on the Mauer extension, but let’s assume he’ll exceed $25 million a year (and that’s being generous to the Twins). With their new stadium, the team should see a boost in payroll, but Mauer will still eat up a large portion of their moneys. For their sake, I hope the payroll gets bumped to the $150 million range, just in case Peter Gammons was on to something when he pointed out that no team has won the World Series in 25 years with one player making 16% of the payroll*.

*Hilariously, A-Rod made 15.88% of the 09 Yankees payroll

I quoted Gammons two years ago, just before Peavy signed his extension with our San Diego Padres. At the time, I referred to it as an “Eric Owens extension,” meaning it was more populist than strategic. For you younger readers, replace Owens’ name with David Eckstein and you’ll get the idea. A well-rounded team with dreams of a World Series ring cannot afford to sink so much into one player. But then, who’s to say we want a well-rounded team?

This is not a Twins blog, and I don’t presume to know anything about their team or the way it operates, but a quick glance across the baseball landscape shows me that a Mauer extension will be a tremendous success for everyone: the Twins will have won a victory for small-market teams everywhere, Mauer is a hero for ignoring the bright lights of the big markets, and baseball writers get a new Cal Ripken, Jr. and Tony Gwynn, Sr. (combined!) to gush about. At this point, a World Series win would be the icing on the cake.

As a fellow Padres fan, I don’t have to tell you that we don’t even have a cake. Our enjoyment of our star player has been hijacked by seemingly non-stop trade rumors and our young core doesn’t really add up to much more than a Hostess snack cake. The 2010 PECOTA Projections put us at 74 wins and last place in the NL West. Las Vegas, for its part, gives us 80/1 odds of winning in October, putting us ahead of only the real train wrecks of the league. What we do have, despite everything I just said, is hope. With Blanks and Latos and Cabrera, the future looks brighter, and we still have a perennial All-Star and Gold Glove-winning first baseman, even if just for now.

With all that said, I pose this question to you, the loyal readers:

What would you rather the Padres do?

Would you rather see the team trade Adrian Gonzalez and maximize their resources in hope of building a small market contender like Colorado or Tampa Bay? Or would you rather see the team commit to Adrian and take their chances with one superstar making up to a third of the team’s payroll, crowning a new Mr. Padres in the process, even if it lowers our already low odds? Let us know in the comments.

The Hall of Could Have Been (The Soul of Baseball)

I’ll let Joe Posnanski explain:

Matt Stairs

Might be in the Hall of Fame if: I’ll let Bill explain.

“Look at it. Somebody decided he was a second baseman, he tears through the minor leagues, gets to Montreal, the Expos take one look at him and say, ‘He’s no second baseman, get real.’ He bounces around, goes to Japan, doesn’t really get to play until he’s almost 30, then hits 38 homers, slips into a part-time role and hits 15-20 homers every year for 10 years in about 250 at-bats a season. … You put him in the right park, right position early in his career … he’s going to hit a LOT of bombs.”

What can you say? It’s all there. Stairs did not get 500 at-bats until he was 30 — he had a .370 OBP that year, hit 26 homers, drove in 106. The next year, he had the 38-homer season. His average dropped the next season, and he never got 500 at-bats in a season after that.

A Big Hit (Sports Illustrated)

Former winter league teammate Kevin Millar shares a wonderful anecdote:

Stairs came. The opening game of Los Mayos’ 1995 season was in Mazatlan. Kevin Millar, a 26-year-old infield prospect for the Florida Marlins who has been Stairs’s teammate in Navojoa for three seasons, remembers the day well. “I’d never met Matt,” says Millar. “He was supposed to hit fourth that day, but it was 20 minutes before the game and he hadn’t shown up. It got to be 10 minutes before game time, then five, and still no Matt. Finally, when the umpires were meeting at home plate, this guy walked into the dugout wearing jeans and boots and smoking a cigarette. He just pulled on his uniform, went up there and yanked a home run. I was like, Who the f—is this guy?”

Matt Stairs solidifies place as greatest journeyman slugger (Sports Illustrated)

Posnanski again, this time in his own words:

On Sept. 28 Stairs faced Washington rookie pitcher Marco Estrada, who became an unwitting partner in history. Sort of. Estrada threw the slider that did not slide, and Stairs unleashed the hangover swing he picked up one too-bright and too-early morning in Tucson. He yanked the ball into the right field seats. He stomped around the bases. That was the 254th home run of Matt Stairs career.

And with that, Stairs became the greatest journeyman slugger in history.

Phillies Have an Unlikely Mr. October (New York Times)

Stairs was profiled in the NY Times following his 08 heroics in the NLCS, revealing his valuable veteran leadership, as well as a great nickname:

The toast of Philadelphia is a balding hockey player with a squat body who was once nicknamed the Wonder Hamster. He swings from his heels and used to drink beer with his boss, but he takes his job seriously and has no desire to ever take off his uniform. He learned patience, he said, from having daughters ages 17, 15 and 11.
—
Stairs was an ideal leader for the young Royals, Baird said, never lecturing his teammates but knowing how to get points across. Baird said he knew then that Stairs could be an ideal manager someday.

“His approach coming to the ballpark every day just doesn’t change,” Baird said. “The people that are respected in this game are consistent in their character, and that’s the way he is. He’s all about substance; he’s not about style. He just gives you an honest day’s work, every single day.”

Phillies Receive a Boost From an Unlikely Source (New York Times)

Apparently, people call him a professional hitter.

“They don’t call him a professional hitter for no reason,” said the Phillies’ Shane Victorino, who lashed a two-run, game-tying homer before Stairs’s blast. “To do what he does at the age of 40, I’m smiling two times bigger because I feel so good for him.”

Players by birthplace : Canada Baseball Stats and Info (Baseball-Reference)

Here are Stairs’ rankings for Canadian baseball players (he’s Canadian, by the way):

• Games: 2nd (1761)
• Home runs: 2nd (259)
• Strike outs: 2nd (1067)
• Base on balls: 3rd (697)
• Slugging %: 7th (.481)
• OPS: 7th (.481)

And Stairs accomplished all of this without receiving serious playing time till age 29.

Padres add Stairs for veteran presence (ESPN)

According to Jerry Crasnick, the Padres have signed Matt Stairs to a minor league deal with an invite to the big league camp.

I like this deal, but I like having a left-handed power-bat on the bench. This seemed to be the offseason to get one, with a couple of veterans finding themselves disregarded, but following Jason Giambi’s return to the Rockies and the AL Central’s interest in Jim Thome, the pickings still seemed slim. Truth be told, Stairs was not very good last year, or the year before, his monster bomb off of Broxton in the NLCS not withstanding, but he has dropped 30 pounds. If Stairs comes into Spring Training as serious as his weight-loss suggests, he would be a great addition to our already impressive bench.

Headley at hot corner a heated decision (Union-Tribune)

Tim Sullivan fills us in on some behind the scenes gossip behind Chase Headley’s move to third.

“Buddy (Black) and I were on the same page,” Towers said recently, describing the Padres’ philosophical divide before his dismissal as general manager. “I’d keep Kouz and trade Headley. But DePo (Paul DePodesta) has always been a huge Headley fan. Huge. As was Sandy (Alderson). Headley was kind of our poster child.”

To which Black responded with a diplomatic “That serves no purpose.” Because of course he did.

I hope that someone gives Towers a studio job, just so we can watch him react to Padres updates as they happen.

Of the San Diego Padres not named ‘Adrian Gonzalez,’ AJ was the second best in terms of wins above replacement in 2009, with a WAR of 2.8. He achieved this despite being worth negative 1.7 runs offensively, because he was valued at plus 13.6 runs defensively. In fact, AJ’s UZR/150 of 12.2 was best for fifth in the league, amongst fielders with 800 innings played.

This is where I say that AJ’s 2009 success does not mean that he’ll have a similar 2010. He could easily come into the coming season and find himself exposed by opposing teams. Luckily for him, and us, the Padres have gotten him some help.

AJ found that a lot of his problems came in the form of left-handed pitching. He ended the season with an OPS of .693, but his splits broke down to a .501 OPS against LHP and a .763 OPS against RHP. This is where Hairston and his career .867 OPS versus left-handed pitching comes in. And Hairston’s no stranger to platoons.

In 2008, following Jim Edmonds’ departure, Hairston teamed up with Jody Gerut to give the team a .900 OPS (or so) out of centerfield, no small feat given Petco’s .796 park factor that year. And for good measure, the two of them chipped in a UZR of 9.1. Now, to expect AJ to have a season like Gerut’s 2008 is unrealistic, but to expect the team’s two solid center fielders to excel while playing to their own strengths is not. Combine their potential production with Headley’s position change and the team may very well shipped 2.7 wins to Oakland and received 5 in return.

C Ramon Hernandez
1B Adrian Gonzalez
2B Mark Loretta
SS Khalil Greene
3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
LF Milton Bradley
CF Mark Kotsay
RF Brian Giles

While some of these positions picked themselves, some took a bit more deliberation. Please allow me to explain.

Catcher was, surprisingly, one of the harder positions to choose. Mike Piazza, in his one year here, was the cleanup hitter we’ve yet to replace, and Josh Bard hit out of his mind his first year over from Boston. But my final vote went to Ramon Hernandez, who was worth over 6 wins* in his two years here. It also doesn’t hurt that he was my favorite player for the little time he called San Diego home. His hair was just so stylish.

Third base came down to preference: offense or defense. Phil Nevin’s bat needs no introduction. In 2000-01, Nevin hit 72 home runs in Qualcomm–while not quite Petco Park in size, the Q was still a pitcher’s park (.819 park factor in 01). Unfortunately, the less said about Nevin’s defense at third, the better. Just like the more said about Kouzmanoff’s defense at third, the better. While Kouzmanoff hasn’t been a great fielder, as Myron explains, he’s been good. Good enough at least to carry his flailing bat to a couple of wins a year.

Left field was the hardest position to chose. Rickey Henderson, Ryan Klesko, Dave Roberts, and Chase Headley all deserve a mention. Klesko, in particular, may be one of the most underrated Padres for everything he did for the team. But none of these players had enough to overcome Milton Bradley’s zazz! This may be a bit of revisionist history, but Bradley was the single-most exciting Padre I have ever had the pleasure of seeing for myself. As soon as he came over from Oakland, he lit the team up. Undeterred by Petco Park, he posted a home OPS of .977. As we all remember, his season ended a week early when Bud Black was forced to blow Bradley’s knee out, but it was a great run while it lasted.

And while center field was another hard pick, it wasn’t from a dearth of options. You, our loyal reader, surely know Mr. Mike Cameron and The Sacrifice Bunt had something serious together, so it was especially difficult to leave him off the team. While Cameron came and mashed, his worn leather glove found kryptonite somewhere on 19 Tony Gwynn Way. A career 5.7 UZR/150 centefielder, Cameron actually cost the team 10.3 defensive runs while here. Ultimately, Cameron was worth 6.6 wins in San Diego, plus the wonderfulness that is our love. Mark Kotsay on the otherhand, was worth 8.2 wins in 2002 and 2003 alone. In those two years, he brought 8.2 defensive runs to the team, as well as his strong bat.

Also, surprise! This is a cliffhanger. I’ll be back with the pitching half of my team of the decade. Until then, tell us where I went wrong in the comments section.

* Any reference to “wins” is based on WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. Tom Tango has a great explanation of the stat here.

At the end of the 2009 season, Tony Gwynn, Jr. seemed to have cemented his place as the Padres center fielder. And yet, maybe he didn’t. Before Hoyer came onboard, Bill Center wrote the following in the U-T:

The Padres like Gwynn as a center fielder, to a point.

When you are a singles hitter, you better have a lot of singles and a high on-base percentage. Gwynn hit .270 with a .350 on-base percentage.

The Padres love him as a fourth outfielder, spot starter, defensive sub and left-handed pinch-hitter. But not so much as an every-day regular, unless he hits over .300.

Will Padres manage?

While this may simply be one man’s opinion, let’s take Center at his word. Let’s say that the team loves AJ (I’m going to start calling him AJ) as a fourth-outfielder, and that his lack of offense scares them off. Who else would be an option then?

Center suggests former Padre, and TSB ex-boyfriend, Mike Cameron. In his second year with the Brewers, Cameron posted a WAR of 4.3, his highest mark since 2006, his first season with the Padres. With Cameron, we’ll know what we’re getting: twenty home runs and dependable defense. But Cameron left San Diego for a $7 million deal after a poor 2007, in which he posted a 2.2 WAR. That’s down from his 4.6 mark in 2003, his previous contract year. Cameron signed a $20 million with the Mets then; will he be willing to take the necessary pay cut to come back to San Diego? If not, who else is there?

Another name bandied about is Marlon Byrd. He meets the right-handed requirement that Center lists in his article and, while he’s not the defender AJ and Cameron are, he posted a wOBA of .348. That puts his 2009 offensive campaign exactly even with Cameron, and better than AJ. If the price is right, might the Padres consider taking a chance on him? That would require the price to be right. What does Byrd expect to get? Let’s ask him:

“If people offer me a contract at two years and the right numbers, I’ll sign,” Byrd said. “If people offer me three years at the right numbers, I’ll sign.

“I’m not interested in a one-year deal. Do I want a three- or four-year deal, yes. But I don’t know what will happen. Last year, I thought Orlando Hudson would get a five-year deal, and he ended up getting one year and an option. The more seasons the better, but I just want fair value.”

Byrd’s future home up in air

That doesn’t sound to me like a player ready to take the San Diego Discount.

With Cameron and Byrd both positioned to cash-in, who’s a cheaper centerfield option for the Padres? Well, AJ.

While Center is correct to label him a singles hitter, AJ’s IsoP of .074 was at the bottom of the league, he still posted an only slightly-below-average wOBA of .332. This was thanks in large part to his decent BB% of 10.9. That still isn’t enough to make AJ an offensive equal to Cameron or Byrd, but maybe he doesn’t have to be.

Of the San Diego Padres not named ‘Adrian Gonzalez,’ AJ was the second best in terms of wins above replacement in 2009, with a WAR of 2.8. He achieved this despite being worth negative 1.7 runs offensively, because he was valued at plus 13.6 runs defensively. In fact, AJ’s UZR/150 of 12.2 was best for fifth in the league, amongst fielders with 800 innings played. All things considered, Fangraphs listed AJ as worth $12.6 million this season. He made only $400 thousand, and he’s not in line to make a raise for 2010.

This is the point where I tell you that any conclusions drawn on AJ’s defense are incomplete, as he doesn’t have nearly enough innings played to compose a proper sample size. But given the price tag, is it worth finding out?

The answer, Mr. Hoyer, is yes. Rather than go in on Cameron for $10 million, or Byrd for $5 million, the correct answer is to go with Tony Gwynn, Jr. for less than half of a million dollars. AJ will not solve all of our problems, as the team will have to find another source of power somewhere (unless the confidence in Blanks and Venable is there), but he does come with the promise of superior defense at the position where it comes the most in handy.

Ray Update:

Beyond the Box Score has posted an article projecting the WAR for free agents. They list Mike Cameron at 2 and Marlon Byrd at 1.9.