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The Padres top 10 prospects (according to the fans)

March 9th, 2012 by

Yesterday, I posted a list of the consensus top 10 prospects in our system according to the experts but what do they know? Well, actually, a lot. Nevermind that point. But just because they know a lot doesn’t mean there’s nothing else to know. For instance, for all their knowledge, I’m not sure how personally invested the experts are in the Padres so with that in mind, I looked at the people who are and found out what they thought.

The following list is compiled from the opinons of Geoff Young, Mickey Koke, Peter Friberg, the teams at Padres Prospects and Mad Friars, and the miscreants at the UTSD forums.

But first a disclaimer, though not the one you were probably expecting. While all lists were either made or updated after the Rizzo and Latos trades, one list left Casey Kelly off of their top 30. Assuming that this list simply forgot him and doesn’t think he’s only the second best Kelly in our system, I had to use more frog DNA to figure things out.

01. Yonder Alonso, 1B

DOB: April 8, 1987
Projects to start 2012 at San Diego (MLB)

02. Yasmani Grandal, C
DOB: November 8, 1988
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

03. Robbie Erlin, SP
DOB: October 8, 1990
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

04. Rymer Liriano, OF
DOB: June 20, 1991
Projects to start 2012 at Lake Elsinore (High-A)

05. Jedd Gyorko, 3B
DOB: September 23, 1988
Projects to start 2012 at San Antonio (Double-A)

06. Keyvius Sampson, SP
DOB: January 6, 1991
Projects to start 2012 at Lake Elsinore (High-A)

07. Joe Wieland, SP

DOB: January 21, 1990
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

08. Jaff Decker, OF
DOB: February 23, 1990
Projects to start 2012 at San Antonio (Double-A)

09. Casey Kelly, SP
DOB: October 4, 1989
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

10. Cory Spangenberg, 2B
DOB: March 16, 1991
Projects to start 2012 at Fort Wayne (Single-A)

A couple of things jump out. The fans expect more out of Robbie Erlin, as he ranked third on this list compared to tenth on the experts’. It make sense when you consider that Erlin has amazing numbers (career 1.15 BB/9) but lacks the tools of higher-end prospects and I’m not sure how often we fans got out to San Antonio.

The second thing that jumps out to me is that that the fans are not ready to believe in Hedges and Ross yet, which again makes sense when you consider access to in-person evaluation. Ross only has one professional inning under his belt while Hedges only has 34 plate appearances. I know I’m very excited for Hedges but I agree with the listmakers who’d like to see him do something before really getting on-board.

In place of Hedges and Ross, the fans put Decker and Sampson on the list, which I absolutely agree with. A bad rap seems to have stuck itself to Decker and he’s had a hard time proving that he’s no longer the stocky high schooler the Padres drafted in 2008. He won’t sell many jeans but as we all should know now, that’s not the point.

Finally, I just want to note that the top three on this list were one vote apart each, with Liriano not that far behind at four. If you’re looking for sweeping generalizations, it’s this: Alonso, Grandal, and Liriano are the stars of this system. For anyone looking for a bandwagon to get on, you’ve got three right there.

Posted in the seminary | 1 Comment »

The Padres top 10 prospects (according to the experts)

March 8th, 2012 by

As you (also) already knew, Keith Law over at ESPN named our farm system the best in baseball this winter. But who’s the best prospect in the best system? As I’ve never attended a minor league game before in my life, I have no idea but the internet is full of people who do. Specifically, Matt Eddy, Kevin Goldstein, Law, Jonathan Mayo, and John Sickels and these five give us the consensus you’re about to read.

But first, a disclaimer. Not all of these lists were published after the Latos trade that brought over Alonso and Grandal, or the trade that sent Rizzo to Chicago, so a little bit of frog DNA had to be used. It may not be the most accurate list (of different people’s opinions) but I think it’s close enough.

01. Rymer Liriano, OF
DOB: June 20, 1991
Projects to start 2012 at Lake Elsinore (High-A)

02. Yonder Alonso, 1B
DOB: April 8, 1987
Projects to start 2012 at San Diego (MLB)

03. Yasmani Grandal, C
DOB: November 8, 1988
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

04. Casey Kelly, SP
DOB: October 4, 1989
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

05. Jedd Gyorko, 3B
DOB: September 23, 1988
Projects to start 2012 at San Antonio (Double-A)

06. Cory Spangenberg, 2B
DOB: March 16, 1991
Projects to start 2012 at Fort Wayne (Single-A)

07. Joe Wieland, SP
DOB: January 21, 1990
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

08. Joe Ross, SP
DOB: May 21, 1993
Projects to start 2012 at Eugene (Low-A)

09. Austin Hedges, C
DOB: August 18, 1992
Projects to start 2012 at Fort Wayne (Single-A)

10. Robbie Erlin, SP
DOB: October 8, 1990
Projects to start 2012 at Tucson (Triple-A)

Notes:

  • Surprised to see Liriano at the top spot? He only came in first on Goldstein’s list, which was written before the Latos trade, so it looks like he benefited the most from the frog DNA.
  • Sickels and Mayo both ranked Alonso first but Law ranked him fifth.
  • Kelly was a divisive pick. He finished in three top threes but Goldstein and Sickels put him at seven and eight (respectively).
  • Keyvius Sampson actually received four top ten picks but none above seven and Law left him completely off his list.
  • James Darnell (Sickels) and Jaff Decker (Law) each received one tenth place vote.

Posted in the seminary | 3 Comments »

What the Padres gave up: Corey Kluber and Nick Greenwood Edition

August 2nd, 2010 by

San Diego Padres ProspectsSunday, the Padres acquired Ryan Ludwick from the Cardinals. Let’s take a good luck at what the Padres gave up and why this, on the surface, seems like a great deal for the home team.

Corey Kluber goes to the Indians in the three-way deal and is without a doubt the better of the two prospects shipped away by the Friars, a Padres 4th round selection in 2007. His main weapon is a low 90′s fastball that is complimented by a slider and change. Over his minor league career he’s consistently proven himself able strike people out, boasting a robust k/9 of 9.5. His sustained ability to miss bats as he progresses up the system is a good sign for the Indians, and his 2010 k/9 with AA San Antonio of 10.0 is outstanding. In fact, Kluber leads the Texas League in strikeouts with 136 in only 122.2 innings.

This year has been the best of Kluber’s career, as he’s dropped his bb/9 to 2.9 and given up about a hit an inning. Throughout his career Kluber’s 4.29 ERA has somewhat betrayed his outstanding peripherals. The bottom line here is that Kluber misses bats, and has seemingly improved as he’s moved up the system. He has a chance to see time in Cleveland this year and projects to be a #4 or #5 starter in the majors. He’s a kid that would have been a good fit for Petco and would have probably contributed next year, but both Simon Castro and Cory Luebke are better prospects. For the Padres to hold on to both of their top pitching prospects was a pleasant surprise, and Padres fans should see this trade as a real boon.

Nick Greenwood is the player the Padres shipped to the Cardinals to complete the deal. Drafted in the 14th round last year, Greenwood is simply organizational depth. A pitchability type lefty, he shows an uninspiring 6.1 k/9 as a 22 year old in low A Fort Wayne, with a 4.15 ERA. Although he enjoyed a nice debut in Eugene last year, he seems just a throw in with little projection, at best he’ll be a middle reliever. His greatest traits are his control and his left handedness, that’ll be what keeps him moving through a system.

All in all, the Padres held onto their top pitching prospects and received an instant upgrade to their lineup in Ludwick. The Padres gave up only a fringe #4 or #5 starter in Corey Kluber and a player who was little more than organizational depth in Nick Greenwood. I love this move.

Posted in hot stove, the seminary | 2 Comments »

What the Padres gave up: Wynn Pelzer Edition

August 1st, 2010 by

San Diego Padres ProspectsMelvin’s note: Welcome Will Cunnane! Will joins The Sacrifice Bunt to cover the minor leagues from an informative and entertaining perspective. Glad to have you on board, Will!

The first rumors of the Padres having interest in acquiring Miguel Tejada almost exclusively mentioned two names going over to Baltimore in the swap: Simon Castro and Cory Luebke. Although Castro has underwhelmed a bit in San Antonio, seeing his K/9 dip from 10.1 in 2009 at Fort Wayne to 7.1 in 2010 with San Antonio, the rest of his numbers are right in line with his career averages, and at the age of 22 he is undeniably one of the best arms in the Padres system. Luebke, since returning from an oblique strain that had him on the DL to start the year, has done nothing but impressed in 2010, with a 2.44 ERA and a sterling .905 WHIP that has earned him a promotion from AA San Antonio to AAA Portland and could see him pitching for the Padres once the rosters are expanded in September. Considering Tejada’s steep decline from 2009 and diminishing value defensively (which Ray covered in great detail below), fans familiar with the Padres’ farm system balked at the idea of giving up either of the top two arms for an aging infielder. Thankfully, so did Jed Hoyer.

Wynn Pelzer was drafted by the Padres in the 9th round of the 2007 draft out of South Carolina. From the start the Padres brass touted Pelzer’s makeup and work ethic. He has a live arm, throwing a heavy fastball that can reach 95-97 and sits around 93-95. He is essentially a two pitch pitcher, throwing an above average slider as well. The combination of Pelzer’s strong makeup, live arm, and inability to develop a 3rd and 4th pitch have all pointed to Wynn making a move to the pen and having a good shot to close. Until this year he had been used almost exclusively as a starter, and after a strong debut season in Fort Wayne, Pelzer had an even more impressive year in Lake Elsinore. Pitching in the hitter friendly Cal League, Pelzer posted his highest K/9 (8.8) of his career, striking out 147 batters in 150.2 innings, had less hits than innings pitched (134 allowed), and most impressively only allowed 6 home runs on the season.

This season has seen Pelzer struggle mightily in AA with the San Antonio Missions. Beginning the year as a starter he has since been moved to the bullpen after allowing 56 walks and 8 HBPs in only 94.1 innings. Scouts have wondered if he can repeat his delivery and he is clearly struggling to do so this year. Throwing in a pitcher friendly environment Pelzer has seen his hr/9 sky rocket to 4.5, a shockingly high number considering that in no previous year had he allowed a hr/9 over 1. His strikeout to walk ratio also fell to 1.48, by far the lowest of his career. At age 24 he’s certainly not young for AA, and his struggles this year have shown, at the very least that he won’t be a starter.

Although Pelzer’s career numbers are strong enough to suggest that his recent struggles are somewhat of an aberration, he was an extremely expendable prospect for the Padres. On the same San Antonio Missions squad alone he was outperformed by several other relievers who have the potential to close. Brandon Gomes, Craig Italiano, and Evan Scribner all have saves for the Missions, and all boast better peripherals than Pelzer. This made Pelzer expendable for the Padres, although Pelzer might just have the most electric arm and upside out of the bunch.

To put it simply, this trade was a low risk move by both sides. Two players who became expandable for the organizations in which they were in were traded because they offered more value to their new teams. Since Pelzer moved exclusively to the bullpen only a month ago, he certainly could learn how to clean up his delivery, find the strike zone consistently, and more effectively utilize his two above average pitches. His makeup, work ethic, and live arm make him a strong candidate to close, but in a Padres system rich with young, controllable relief pitchers, the loss is negligible. All in all, the Padres gave up about what you’d expect for a 36 year old player with limited defensive ability and a declining bat. Pelzer could wind up thriving in his switch to the bullpen, but his struggle to find the plate consistently may always hamper his ability to be a successful closer.

Posted in hot stove, the seminary | 1 Comment »

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