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The Giant Dipper

September 26th, 2010 by

With one week left, this has already been an exhausting September.

On August 26th, the Padres’ postseason odds were at their peak, scoring a 96.7 from Baseball Prospectus and a 97.2 from coolstandings. Since then, the Padres have made it interesting, losing 10 in a row, flirting with an all-time collapse, and winning five of their last seven.

I’m sure I don’t need to tell you how up-and-down this past month has been, but here’s a visual reference for you just in case.

Padres postseaso odds

That looks like one fun roller coaster. Here’s hoping they let us off at the top.

Posted in statistics | 3 Comments »

Is Mat Latos better than Jake Peavy?

September 8th, 2010 by

What a stupid question. Jake has more than twelve hundred innings on Latos. We’re not even close to being able to make such calls. But let’s try anyway.

Last night, Latos set a major league record by pitching in his fifteenth straight game of five innings or more while allowing two runs or less. The last time he gave up three runs was on June 4th, which was also the last time he allowed three runs in a game since April 26th. Since May 1st, his ERA has been 1.64. He may be young, but Latos has muscled his way into Great talk.

I don’t know about you, fellow Padres fans, but my barometer for great Padre pitching is Jake Peavy. The break up may have been less than amicable but he’s still the greatest Padre I’ve ever seen toe the rubber in the first inning. So how does new hotness measure up?

Here’s a sampling of what the tattooed one has done this season, at age 22:

2010
FIP 2.96
xFIP 3.25
ERA+ 163
K/9 9.41
BB/9 2.38
WPA 4.4
WAR 3.7

Not bad. For starters, let’s look at how Jake did at age 22.

2003
FIP 4.99
xFIP 4.35
ERA+ 96
K/9 7.21
BB/9 3.79
WPA 0.32
WAR 0.3

I think it’s safe to say that Latos found his feet a little earlier. Now, Jake’s Cy Young season.

2007
FIP 2.54
xFIP 2.84
ERA+ 158
K/9 9.67
BB/9 2.74
WPA 3.50
WAR 6.1

Latos actually holds his own. Jake’s got him at FIP and xFIP, the big kahunas of the moment, strike outs, and WAR (it should be noted here that WAR is a cumulative stat on Latos is on pace for less than 200 innings this year) but Latos takes ERA+, walks, and WPA so far. His K/BB also bests Jake’s, 3.95 to 3.53. It’s highly doubtful that Latos will get the award this year, Johnson and Halladay have just been too dominant, but that takes nothing away from what he’s accomplished this year.

In case you were wondering, Latos has set career highs in every category this year. How do they compare to Jake’s career highs, you ask? Let’s find out.

FIP 2.84 2007
xFIP 2.99 2009
ERA+ 171 2004
K/9 9.74 2009
BB/9 2.22 2005
WPA 3.59 2005
WAR 6.1 2007

With the exception of WPA, Latos still has a ways to go before he reaches Jake but he’s off to a fast-start. It should be interesting to see how much ground he gains next year, don’t you agree Tom Verducci?

Posted in players, statistics | 5 Comments »

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