In a year of unlikely successes, Chris Denorfia might be the unlikeliest. A career minor leaguer*, Denorfia made his way to San Diego in mid-May when Scott Hairston went down, I can only imagine the team advised him to go ahead and buy an apartment. Since then, he’s been the second best hitter on the team with a wRC+ of 134. He’s hit nine home runs in a little more than 200 at-bats, and he’s done it with a BABIP-LD% of 12.9**. Come October, Denorfia will be in the starting lineup and he’ll have earned his place.

I just wish the team would stop putting him in center.

While not quite the second coming of Brady Clark, Denorfia’s highlight reel is a little shorter than the average centerfielder. According to UZR, he’s been below average this year, posting a -3.1. Dewan’s +/- is harder on Norf, placing him at -5 DRS (defensive runs saved). But with Anthony Junior out the rest of the regular season, it looks like Denorfia has little to worry about with his job security.

There are other options, though NL Manager of the Year-to be Bud Black has shown little interest in them. Over the course of his Padres career, Hairston has made 98 starts in center and has a +5.3 UZR*** in center. But with his regular scheduled second half slump (.490 OPS), S dot has found his playing time severely limited. Then there’s Luis Durango and the recently reacquired Jody Gerut, but neither of them are good enough to muscle their way into the starting lineup. That leaves us with one obvious option.

Will Venable is no stranger to centerfield, having made 42 starts at the position since 2008. But I’m not going to bother drawing any conclusions from those 300+ innings. Really, there’s very little evidence to draw any conclusions about Venable’s defense, but in sixteen hundred total innings, he’s saved 13.7 runs out there. He’s been tasked with Petco’s right field and he’s come out on top. At least, so far.

One troubling trend I’ve noticed as this season has gone on is the slow phasing out of the youngsters from the lineup. Of the Baby Pads who started the off this year, only Chase Headley sees regular playing time. Venable is next but a couple of hundred at-bats behind. In 2011 and beyond, this team is going to needs these youngsters to pick up where Adrian and co. leave off. Finding out if Venable is capable of delivering 20 home runs out of center is a good start.

Denorfia’s a great story, and he’ll remain one in left field. Let’s see if Venable’s ready to play.

*Denorfia 208 major league at-bats coming into 2010, compared to 2630 of the minor league variety.
**This means that only a little luck has been on his side.
***In 921 innings.

Remember how nonplussed I was with the Tejada trade? I couldn’t even be bothered to come up with a witty title. Now look at the title for this post. So witty. So plussed.

Earlier today, the Padres pulled the trigger on a trade for Ryan Ludwick, getting him away from the Cardinals in a three-way deal that also sent Jake Westbrook from Cleveland to St. Louis.

After flirting with Jayson Werth earlier in the week, the Padres may have made a better deal. While Ludwick doesn’t have Werth’s mighty beard (Werth doesn’t have it anymore either), he’s got the type of numbers that should make you excited.

Ludwick’s in the middle of another solid season, posting a 123 wRC+ with an 8.8 UZR. From 2007 (his breakout season) through 2009, he had a line of .280/.350/.512 while playing in the new Busch Stadium, which is not hitter-friendly. It’s no Petco* but there’s no reason to fear that Ludwick will collapse once he gets to San Diego.

Defensively, Ludwick is a great right fielder who will likely bump Will Venable over to left field. Since 2007, his defense’s been worth +15.7 runs (that’s with a little left and center sprinkled in. At right alone, he’s been worth +12 runs). While he doesn’t have the best range, which should be interesting moving to Petco’s humongous right field**, he’s got the kind of arm you want from the most storied position in Padres history.

While I would have loved for the Padres to acquire Jayson Werth, he would be a two month rental as Werth is a free agent at the end of the year. Ludwick isn’t. Ludwick is a player that we can pencil into the four hole for the next year and a half and watch as he offers Adrian the type of lineup protection that he’s never received in his career. If Adrian wanted the team to show him they’re serious about winning, then he got his wish.

But wait, it gets better! For everything I just spelled out, the Padres gave up nothing. Were you worried about having to part with Simon Castro or Corey Luebke to improve them team? Then you’ll be glad to hear that the Padres received Ludwick in exchange for Corey Kluber*** and Nick Greenwood. If you’re asking who those guys are, my point exactly. And we’ll tell you, just not right now****. Along with Kluber and Greenwood, the team also sent some money St. Louis’ way. That’s right, us broke-ass busters sent another team money. And Ludwick’s arbitration eligible and likely to become the highest paid player on the team next year. Anyone questioning whether or not Moorad’s going to open up his pocketbook can stop asking.

If you wanted proof that the new regime is serious, here it is.

*Keep in mind that Petco makes hitters look bad, but it doesn’t make them actually bad. The Padres offense is currently ranked fourth in the NL when you take park factors into consideration, and I’d bet that you don’t believe me when I tell you that.

**Not to editorialize, but I wouldn’t be against the Padres putting Ludwick in left. With a starting trio of Ludwick-Gwynn-Venable, I’m not sure anything would fall in that outfield.

***With Luebke and Kluber, and the once rumored Corey Hart, this year’s been the Deadline of the Coreys for us.

****Coming soon!

In Tim Sullivan’s article on the Miguel Tejada acquisition, Adrian Gonzalez was quoted as saying:

“We position ourselves in the right place and then the ball’s hit nearby most of the time. We haven’t made a lot of spectacular plays out there this year. We’ve just always been in the right place. And that’s because the pitchers can execute their pitches. … There’s not a lot of range needed.”

According to UZR, the Padres as a team are second in the league in range runs at +31.6 and they’re tenth in out of zone (OOZ) plays with 286. In the infield alone (excluding first base), the Padres have +10.8 range runs and 109 OOZ. In both categories, the team ranks near the top of the league, ahead of the great defenses in San Francisco, Cincinnati, and Arizona.

Adrian’s had a better view of the infield than I have this season, but I can’t help but feel like he’s selling his guys a little short.

Living in Chile, I find myself for the first time in a country that actually cares about the the World Cup*, even if it is now over. Clearly I’ve never cared before, not outside of the casual fandom that comes with generally liking sports, but it’s made me realize that I’ve never cared for the WBC either. I’ve watched both tournaments, even attending the Cuba/Japan game last year, but I found myself unengaged on a personal level, not really caring who won. I think that might make me a bad American. Personally, I blame Adam Dunn.


As it’s the player’s fault, I figure that the best way to fix my milquetoast is to build my own (if only hypothetical) team. But then, creating a fantasy Team USA is boring. The only real challenge is whether or not I can find a way to keep Kevin Youkilis off the team, so instead I present to you my picks for Team California. If we’re big enough to be in the G20, I’d say we’re big enough to field our own baseball team.

Rules: For eligibility on the team, a player had to be born in and attend high school in California. That means that Prince Fielder, who was born in Ontario but went to high school in Florida is not eligible.

Catcher – Gerald Laird (Westminster)

Exciting start, right? Laird might not be much with the bat, but it’ll be buried in this lineup. He’s a solid backstop who’ll be there to catch the pitches our All-Star pitchers throw.
Alternate: Rod Barajas (Santa Fe Springs)

First Base – Adrian Gonzalez (Chula Vista)

Now that’s more like it. You know Adrian, so I don’t think I need to tell you why he belongs on this team. Whether or not he’ll pick California over Mexico is another story, but I’ll leave that to someone else to figure out.
Alternate: Derrek Lee (Sacramento)

Second Base – Chase Utley (Long Beach)

Possibly the toughest call of the team, Utley just got the nod over Dustin Pedroia, but really it wasn’t that tough. Utley is one of the most well-rounded players in the game, who can hit for power, draw a walk, steal a base, and play the best defensive second in the game.
Alternate: Dustin Pedroia (Woodland)

Third Base – Evan Longoria (Downey)

We haven’t even gotten to shortstop yet and we already have the best infield that you’ll find anywhere. Along with Utley, Longoria is an easy pick for the Team USA roster (and not just because he attended Long Beach State): another well-rounded player who will hit for power and catch the ball.
Alternate: Michael Young (Covina)

Shortstop – Troy Tulowitzki (Santa Clara)

Like seemingly everyone else on this team (including fellow former Dirtbag Longoria), Tulo is a player who can do it all. If I were the coach, and I’m not (you’ll have to wait to see who is), I’d likely put Tulowitzki in the leadoff spot, which tells you a little bit about how deep this team is in the middle of the order.
Alternate: Jimmy Rollins (Oakland)

Left field – Ryan Braun (Granada Hills)

Oh look, another All-Star. Braun is one more Californian worthy of being on Team USA, and we know this because he played in the 09 WBC. While not quite the complete player his new teammates are, Braun is a major power threat who will feast in the middle of this lineup and hopefully rely on this next guy to hide his horrible, horrible glove.
Alternate: Milton Bradley (Long Beach)

Center field – Tony Gwynn, Jr. (Poway)

If you were to say that this pick is pure homerism, you’d probably be right. But in my defense, I’d like to say the following two things: 1. There are not a lot of quality California-bred center fielders in the bigs right now, and 2. Tony’s not so bad. As Melvin recently argued, UZR is a statistic that requires a lot of evidence before an opinion can really be reached, but I’m willing to take a chance on Tony’s excellent two (or so) years.
Alternate: Adam Jones (San Diego)

Right field – Adam Jones (San Diego)

While Jones is no AJ when it comes to patrolling centerfield, he’s still a solid player who does everything good even if he doesn’t do a whole lot great. With his strong arm, Jones should be able to slide into right without a problem, and any offense he can contribute will be gravy given the kind of guys he’ll be hitting behind.
Alternate: Will Venable (Marin County)

And there’s that. I’m not sure if you noticed, but there are three San Diegans in the starting eight. If one were so inclined, they could build an All-San Diego team that would be able to hold their own in any competition. We’ll see more San Diegans on the pitching side, which I will get to in a couple of days.

As always, please tell me where I got it wrong in the comments section.

*Apologies to the 14 people in the US who like soccer.

Previously on The Sac Bunt: We discussed the Padres meager offensive production and the various aging veterans who could come in and theoretically provide some punch.

At the time, the Padres were 13th in the NL and 23rd in the majors with a .312 wOBA. Today, our wOBA remains at .312, but it is now good for 14th in the NL and 25th in the majors. Now that’s consistency! At the time, I threw out Jermaine Dye and Andruw Jones, and later Pat Burrell, as players who might-or-might not be able to help. Burrell has since signed with the Giants and Dye seems to have fallen off the radar, so it’s Andruw Jones who has prompted the writing of this article.

Today, Buster Olney reported that the Chicago White Sox are officially open for business, looking to move the players that they can from their underachieving team. While they have some bench players that might be of interest to us, including Omar Vizquel, we’re focusing on Jones.

When I first brought him up, Jones had a .949 OPS and a .424 wOBA. Those numbers have since dropped to .823 and .363, respectively, after a rough May: .208/.301/.417/.718, .322. It should be noted that Jones’ May is better than entire season for Venable, Gwynn, and Blanks. Faint praise, I know, but notable. While Jones is still drawing his walks, but he’s not hitting the ball very hard, so it’s not out of line to think that he was the beneficiary of a hot start. Fortunately, what hasn’t changed is his contract.

Along with his $1 million worth of performance bonuses, Jones is still signed to the $500 thousand contract he was at the beginning of the year. Depending on who Kenny Williams asks for in return, Jones could be a low-risk/high-reward chance for the Padres to take. If Jones figures something out back in the NL, the Padres have an outfielder who can actually hit the ball and if not, they’re only on the hook for less than half a million dollars and (hopefully) a mid-level prospect with no real future in San Diego.

With the lack of any real optimism in our lineup, this could be the kind of a risk a team vastly exceeding everyone’s expectations should take. If nothing else, they can at least point to this and say that they tried, after they move Adrian and Bell for some prospects.

[1280 x 1024]

[1200 x 800]

[1024 x 768]

Enjoy! I meant to have a new wallpaper for opening day, but when your motherboard dies things gets tough.

And in the realm of actual Padres stuff, it looks like my pre-season prediction of 78 wins was conservative, (!!!) making a new Adrian Gonzalez wallpaper a safe move. Glad to be wrong.

With the Padres the proud owners of the best record in the NL (and tied for the second best in all of baseball), the tone of our story has changed. Where everyone had been wondering when the team would trade Adrian Gonzalezand Heath Bell, now people are beginning to wonder if we’ll be buyers instead.

Jed Hoyer started off the talk mentioning he’s not completely happy with the way the offense has been playing:

Frankly we’ve been fortunate to score as many runs as we have given some of the guys we’ve had struggling. The way our pitching staff has thrown has allowed us some patience. At some point our hitters will have to pick up our pitchers. We’re not going to continue to pitch at this rate all season. I think it’s unrealistic to think that.

The team, as of the writing of this article, ranks 23rd in the league in wOBA (13th in the NL) at .312. The team leader is Scott Hairston at .371, followed by backup catcher Yorvit Torrealba at .360, Adrian at an underachieving .359, and Chase Hadley at .349. Everyone else is well below average, with the most egregious offenders being sophomore slumping Kyle Blanks at .305, Evert Cabrera at .250, and Jerry Hairston at .234*.

To this point, the pitching (1st in ERA and xFIP) and defense (2nd in UZR) have led the way, but as Hoyer noted, we can’t just count on getting by with a below-average offense. So who are some candidates to come fix this thing?

TSB favorite Tim Sullivan starts us off throwing Carlos Lee, Jose Guillen, and Jermaine Dye’s names into the hat. Sullivan adds that the price tags hanging from Lee and Guillen might push them out of range. This leaves Dye, who’s become something of a boogeyman around baseball. Following a disappointing contract year (-0.4 WAR), Dye failed to find a job this past offseason. He received interest from a couple of teams (the Cubs and Milwaukee were mentioned) but its believed he’s priced himself out of different situations, which makes it all the more interesting that he’d be willing to come here:

“San Diego was one of the places Jermaine was excited about playing,” (Dye’s agent) Bob Bry said Tuesday. “He continues to work out every morning and hits most days and is still waiting for an opportunity with a team that has a chance to advance to the playoffs. San Diego, seemingly, would be a good fit.”

Right.

Dye’s bat could bring some added oomph to this lineup. Even last year, in a down season, Dye hit 27 home runs with a .344 wOBA. Unfortunately, he was also the worst defensive player in all of baseball. His UZR/150 was -26.4 and on his career, Dye is a -16.3 outfielder. This team definitely needs some offense, but what happens to our pitching and defense with Jermaine Dye roaming around the spacious confines of Petco Park?

Moving on.

Another aging former All-Star whose name is in the mix is Andruw Jones. You might remember him from the monster bombs he hit in Petco as a member of the Atlanta Braves. Or you might remember him from the monster bomb he was as a member of the Los Angeles Dodgers. With his/Jake Peavy’s Chicago White Sox off to a 14-20 start, Jones has made himself into a trade candidate with his .260/.360/.604 line. MLB Trade Rumors has made up a list of teams that might have interest, and said the following about ours:

The Padres have Kyle Blanks in left field, Tony Gwynn Jr. in center field, and Will Venable in right field. Of the three, only Blanks profiles as a top prospect, so the other two could be vulnerable to a Jones acquisition, should San Diego remain in the race.

I’m assuming they mean that AJ and Venable are vulnerable to losing their spot in the lineup to Jones, and not their spot on the roster. At $500K, Jones is a steal not a deal for the production he’s put up, but will it last? I dunno, but Fangraphs took a shot at figuring it out:

Why so pessimistic? Because at this exact point last season, 111 PA, Andruw’s production ceased. For those first 111 PA he hit .278/.405/.544, which amounts to a wOBA, .424, that is nearly identical to his mark this year. Yet from his 112th PA through his 331st, he produced very little. His triple slash sat at .183/.282/.419, a .320 wOBA. His only saving grace was power, as he hit 12 home runs and produced a .236 ISO during that span. Other than that, though, he showed few redeeming qualities.
—
Yet even if he avoids the drop-off he experienced last year, there’s almost no chance he continues at his current pace. Even during his prime years he never produced a .400 wOBA. His peak year came in 2000, when he produced a .390 mark. He came close, too, in 2005, when he hit 51 home runs and produced a .382 wOBA. He might be able to help a contending team, but it won’t be with the numbers he’s producing now.

Jones is a gamble, more so than Dye, because it’s hard to know who exactly we’ll be getting. While he’s slimmed down, this is still the guy who almost ate himself out of the league. He still has the power he’s ever had and if the stars align, he could be the big bopper to help Adrian see more fastballs, but that’s a big if.

As the season progresses, teams will start seeing their dreams of success slip away (but not us) and more and more players will start falling off the tree, leaving us with a better idea of what’s out there. It is only May afterall. Still, isn’t it nice talking about the stars we could trade for instead of the ones we could trade away?**

*Making matters worse, Hairston is fourth on the team in plate appearances. This jack of all trades is truly the master of none: he’s also contributed a -0.9 UZR.

**Buster Posey and Dustin Ackley are future stars, jes’ sayin’.

During last night’s victory over the Diamondbacks, manager Bud Black removed Kyle Blanks in a double switch (with Cesar Ramos) for Scott Hairston and Mike Adams. The score was 5-2 Padres, with the tying run at the plate in the form of Justin Upton, so it was a serious situation, and Blanks’ spot was due up eighth the next inning. After Upton’s run scoring infield single, Adams induced a flyout from Adam LaRoche and came back to pitch a scoreless eighth. For his part, Hairston later drew a walk.

All’s well that ends well, right? Right. But I still have a concern.

Lifting Blanks was the logical decision. While Headley was due up ninth, backup third baseman Jerry Hairston, Jr. was already in the game at second, making a double switch to remove Headley a little less neat. And Headley’s an honest-to-goodness third baseman so it’s not like he’s a defensive liability, not like first baseman-cum-left fielder Blanks. Removing Blanks for a defensive substitution, double switch or no, might not be the worst idea in the world, especially for a team beginning to pride itself on small ball. That Blanks is the second best hitter* on the team however, might be a detail.

Can the Padres really afford to give Blanks the Ryan Klesko treatment**? More to the point, should they? Had the best laid plans not worked out and Arizona came back to tie the game, what happens to the team’s odds of coming back themselves with Blanks on the bench?

(This is where I acknowledge that I’m making assumptions. What happened last night may have been last night specific, with the team having no further plans to Klesko-ize Blanks, if that’s even what it was. Or it might be exactly the team’s plans moving forward, in which case continue reading.)

As I mentioned earlier, the team is priding themselves on playing small ball and stealing a lot of bases in Spring Training. How does Blanks and his outside linebacker’s body fit into this? That’s right, at first base.

Adrian wouldn’t be the first All-Star first baseman let go in part because of a youngster breathing down his neck. Just last year, the Angels were able to live with Mark Teixeira signing with the Yankees because Kendry Morales was ready to jump in and hit 34 home runs. Of course, they could’ve resigned Teixeira and forced the less-than-agile Morales to play out of position, but Kevin Towers wasn’t running the team at the time.

I know Hoyer inherited a mess, but something is wrong when a weak hitting team such as the Padres sees removing a 30 home threat from a game as a viable option. And while I trust Hoyer to clean things up, I hope last night’s move at least made him go hmm.

*According to most projections (Bill James, CHONE, etc.), Blanks will be a 120 wRC+ hitter this year, putting him behind only Adrian on the team.

**Quick history lesson: Ryan Klesko was the team’s starting left fielder in 2004 and 05 and was horrible defensively, which is why he frequently watched the end of games on the bench while someone more capable did his job in left.

Last month, when the Joe Mauer extension was simply an inevitability, I wrote about it and what it means for the Padres and Adrian Gonzalez.

The Twins got Mauer at 8-years $184 million, and that’s a steal not a deal, but there’s no way he’ll make less than 16% of their payroll anytime soon, which likely means they won’t win the World Series anytime soon. Despite this, it’s created an excitement for the Twins, Minnesota, and the game of baseball. While the Twins may not be raising any pennants in their new park anytime soon, they will be one of the few teams in the game who can say that they have an honest to goodness Mr. (insert team name here).

Even if you don’t think he’s quite a Mr., there’s no denying that Adrian Gonzalez is a special player and locking him up would ensure he wears the right hat into the Hall of Fame (you know, assuming). It would also put us beyond where Mauer puts the Twins, and it’s unlikely that Adrian would make less than 26% anytime soon.

You play to win the game, but is that the only reason?

“It’s sad to say, but having been traded a couple of times, I play for the guys in the clubhouse, the players, Buddy [Black] and his staff,” Gonzalez says. “I play in San Diego, but I’m not playing for the name across the jersey. I play for the guys in the clubhouse. You learn that you play for them.”

The Padres have given Adrian Gonzalez around $4.7 million dollars over his career. That’s not $180 million, but apparently it hasn’t been enough to convince him to play for the team. At the very least it should be enough to not say stupid things like this to the public.

I’ve been saying it a lot lately, but hearing Adrian and remembering Jake Peavy talk sure makes me appreciate Heath Bell, the only face of the Padres the last few years who seems to like the team.

Via CBS Sports