Introduction: Padres 101
Part 1: Rebuilding Through the Draft

A proper discussion on the misconceptions surrounding the San Diego Padres has to begin with their hitting. At the end of the 2008 season, the Padres ranked dead last in the league in runs. Since moving into Petco, the team has been consistently at the bottom of the league in this category.

From this information alone, it would be safe to assume any number of things, from the players on the team are poor to the management has no idea of how to put together a team to compete in this ballpark. What needs to be considered is that the Padres are not the only team that plays in Petco.

What are park factors?

Simply, park factors indicate the difference between runs scored in a team’s home and road games. As the same hitters and the same pitchers are doing the playing, the difference in runs scored is dependent on the park the game is played in.

Park factors do tend to vary some from year to year. That’s why I have compiled the combined park factors for every stadium from 2004 through 2007, save the two Nationals and Cardinals parks. I used a basic version of the park factor equation: (home runs for + home runs against) / (road runs for + road runs against). And the numbers are:

(And, as you should’ve assumed, Petco Park this year was again last in the league at 0.796. First in the league for 2008 was Rangers Ballpark, at 1.142.)

What does this mean? In layman’s terms, Petco is the hardest stadium in baseball to hit in. Not just by a little, but a lot.

The Padres don’t just play in a pitcher’s park, they play in an extreme pitcher’s park.

This is the lens under which the Padres low run totals should be viewed. Nineteen percent less runs scored in Petco than in the average park. The next toughest stadium, Safeco Field, is more than half that distance away at 8% less. The only gap greater than the 11% between Petco and Safeco is the 15% between Coors Field and Chase Field. You may know Coors Field as the place that kept baseballs in a humidor to try to even the odds between sides.

From 04-07, the two most productive Padres were Adrian Gonzalez and Brian Giles. In their most productive seasons, their home and away OPS splits were:

And then this season:

(More of the same from Gonzalez, although Giles’ numbers aren’t so bad. Another good reason to resign him, but that’s a discussion for another day.)

When the stadium built, it was said to be Bonds-proof. Barry’s response:

“It’s not Bonds-proof. It’s baseball-proof.”

While it’s not quite baseball-proof, it’s close. The home stadium puts hitters at a ridiculous disadvantage, and there’s no easy solution.

The fences are too far and the air’s too thick and it’s just too drat hard. On the plus side, the fences were brought  in before the 06 season, albeit barely (thanks wrveres), and the front office likes to drop little teases that they could be moved in farther (thank you, Jody Gerut). On the less plus side, Sean Connery from The Avengers hasn’t been called to do something about the thick marine air.

Until (read: if) something is done to neutralize Petco Park, the 25 Padres taking the field are going to have to make due with what they’ve got. And so will all of us sitting in the stands.

Craption this pic:

My entry: Extra support for the troops!

The trade deadline has passed and the Padres completed the following deals:

-Tony Clark to Arizona for Evan Scribner
-Randy Wolf to Houston for Chad Reineke

Exciting, huh?

As we detailed earlier, getting Reineke and Scribner are classic Kevin Towers moves. They’re both under appreciated arms that will likely come out of the pen. Think about Heath Bell (acquired, with Royce Ring, for Jon Adkins and Ben Johnson), Cla Meredith (acquired, with Josh Bard, for Doug Mirabelli), and Scott Linebrink (selected off of waivers). Given that the Padres bullpen E.R.A. has gone from 3.01 in 2007, first in the league, to 4.47 in 2008, 28th in the league, it’s no surprise that Towers took this course of action.

What is surprising is that this was the only course of action taken.

Many Padres heard their names being tossed around in trade rumors, from Brian Giles to Greg Maddux. Besides Clark and Wolf, the only player that seemed to come close to leaving the team was Maddux. But with a trade to the Dodgers never coming to fruition, Maddux will likely continue not winning games for the Padres for the rest of the year.

Maddux handcuffed the Padres when he let them know that he would only accept a trade to a team on the West Coast. Through the process of elimination, this left us with just the Dodgers and, as we’ve already detailed, he won’t be returning to L.A. anytime soon.

At 42-67, the Padres are just behind the Mariners and the Nationals for the worst record in baseball. They’ll have to go 39-14, a .736 winning percentage, to get to .500 by game 162. And while we’re filling in a lot of the blanks here, we think it’s safe to say that the moves not made by the team signal that they’re in it to win it/remain competitive next season.

Giles is a big chip. He is a good hitter with a great O.B.P. and he’ll only get better the further away from Petco he gets, and his name was mentioned in trade rumors with the Mets, Cardinals, and Brewers. Clearly, nothing came true and Giles will remain a Padre for the remainder of the season and, likely, next season as well.

There’s two ways to look at the Giles situation. On one hand, he is this team’s three hitter and is one of the best defensive right fielders in the game. On the other, he is 37 years old and has shown a susceptibility to injuries. In 2006, he finished the season with a slugging percentage of .397, and his .415 mark this season isn’t much higher. The Padres, it would seem, are banking on Giles’ O.B.P. to stay strong into next season, which is risky.

The biggest name to mention in all these trade talks, however, is the one player who wasn’t traded but still isn’t in the Padres organization. On May 9th, Jim Edmonds had an O.P.S. of .498 and was cut by the team. He was picked up quickly by the Chicago Cubs and went Kevin Kouzmanoff, raising his O.P.S. to .757 on July 31st. Edmonds OPS+ was 39 With the Padres. With the Cubs, his OPS+ stands at 132. And the Cubs didn’t have to send a single player to San Diego to get him.

Of course, this move wasn’t so black and white. The management has said that they wanted to see what they had in Jody Gerut (OPS+ 118) and Scott Hairston (OPS+ 117) and you can’t fault them for that. You could say that Edmonds was traded for Gerut, but that’d be disingenuous. Gerut was already on the team and with left field being the game of musical chairs it was, it’s not like there wasn’t room for Gerut. Given the lack of return this team saw at the trade deadline, it would’ve been nice to get something back for Edmonds, even if it was just salary relief.

Since the beginning of the Petco era, the Padres have had one player finish in the top ten for MVP voting every year.

In 2004, Mark Loretta finished 9th, following a season in which he finished third in the league with a batting average of .335, fourth in the league in doubles, and first in sacrifice flies. He posted an OPS+ of 138 this year.

In 2005, Brian Giles finished 9th, following a season in which he finished third in the league with an OBP of .423, first in walks, and sixth with an OPS+ of 146.

In 2006, Trevor Hoffman finished 10th, following a year in which he lead the league in saves and finished second in the Cy Young voting. He ended the season with an ERA+ of 189 and a WHIP of 0.97.

In 2007, Jake Peavy finished 7th following a season in which he lead the league in ERA, wins, strike outs, and WHIP. He won the Cy Young award and rounded out the season with an ERA+ of 159.

The only other team in the entire National League who can match this boast is the St. Louis Cardinals. Albert Pujols alone has finished in the top ten every year, winning the award in 2005. He was joined by our own Hollywood Jim in 2004. Four teams have had a top 10 finalist three times: Atlanta, Houston, Philadelphia, and the Florida Marlins.

With this type of streak, the question in front of us becomes “Can we maintain?” Will the Padres be able put a player in the top 10 again? If they do, who will it be? Khalil? Adrian? Jake again? Let us know what you think.
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Friar Follies (Baseball Prospectus)

Alliteration aside (will we ever run out of these headlines?) Joe Sheehan tries his hand again at Padres analysis and talks a bit less crazy this time. He says Hollywood Jim is kaput in center, while Baldelli or Crisp make the most sense in trade scenarios. (non-subscribers get partial text)

The Padres aren’t likely to close the gap on the Diamondbacks and Dodgers under any circumstances. They’re not a good offensive team, and they need time to integrate their young position players. The team’s strength the last few years, though, has been the way it fits into the park, with fly-ball pitchers, deep fences and Mike Cameron. Now, in a post-Cameron world, they’re about to find out just how much of what they thought was pitching was actually defense.

Tom Krasovic doesn’t see the Padres trading for Crisp.

For one, Crisp is out of the lineup because of an injury. Two, Epstein hasn’t put him on the trade block. Three, the Padres believe Epstein would ask for advanced prospects such as Matt Antonelli or Chase Headley. “We’re not going to move those guys,” Towers said.

Prior, Giles, and Hensley Recoveries On-Time (Union Tribune)

Tom Krasovic shares updates on our favorite sickly players, and things look good. Don’t they always during spring training? I’d be a bit worried if they were “in the best shape of their lives”.

The surgeon’s work is enabling Prior to throw with proper form, to repeat the same release point that he had before injuries led to compensation issues and degraded his silky delivery.

He said he is able to get the extension and angle needed to hit the low-outside portion of the strike zone, or just wide of it. Last spring training, Prior said, he wasn’t able to smoothly get that done. “I’d come around the ball,” he said, tilting his right hand inward.

Chase Headley’s Approach to Hitting (Baseball America)

“I think the strikeout is one of the most overrated stats in baseball,” Headley said. “It’s an out just like anything else. You can pretty much tell how I’m hitting by the counts. If somebody is on base, I’m trying to do some damage. But if there’s nobody on base, I like to see some pitches.”

Chase you’re preaching to the choir re: strikeouts. Power hitters will strikeout, it comes with the territory. They make up for it by hitting the crap out of the ball when they do connect, and they make fewer outs of other varieties by walking more.

Not sure I’m happy to hear he’s changing his approach with runners on though. Hey Chase, you can still score if you’re on base! Takes what theys gives ya!

Young Guns: The NL West (Baseball Analysts)

It never hurts to soak up another informed opinion on future prospects. Mark Hulet expresses his take on our future stars, plus those we’ll see around the division. One aspect of Chase Headley’s game I haven’t seen mentioned before is his considerable BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). This can indicate a reliance on luck in a players’ batting average.

One huge caution about Headley’s high average in 2007 is that his BABIP was an astronomical .400. The power increase is probably for real – the high average is not.

Definitely an aspect of Chase’s game to keep in mind.

Statheads in the Front Office (Friar Forecast)

Myron takes a look at franchise executives dedicated to statistical analysis, similar to Chris Long‘s position with the Padres.

That’s it for this issue of Sacrificial Links, fancy graphic edition. 13 short days until the big game. Keep your pants on! Or not, either way really. Just put them back on by March 31st.

We here at the Sacrifice Bunt are fans of looking good. A little swagger never hurt anybody, right? I’ve gone as far as creating a study to define a new standard in hipness and with withitness at looking suave.

I would now like to share my favorite uniform crazies from spring training. What’s a uniform crazy? You know I don’t have an answer to that. What do the points mean? LOTS, obviously.

5. I’m so freaking jealous some teams don’t have to wear the crappy hats

As far as I can tell the Marlins, Angels, and Rockies all got out of it somehow. Maybe no one noticed? Why do I even care as much as I do? Some questions in life cannot be answered, my friends. Some questions can be answered, but failed former Padre prospects like myself simply aren’t privy to this kind of top secret info. Score: 8.0

4. New Padres catchers’ mask

These goalie style masks are on their way out, bug dagnabbit ours now looks less girly and weird. Lord knows we need all the manly we can get with Mikey C gone and Brian G still on the roster.

Do take my opinion with a grain of salt. I pegged CY a bit, shall we say, not nearly as awesome before the “happenings”. Score: Mas O Menos

3. Dodgers, Red Sox, Tigers wear regular season jerseys inexplicably during spring training

Not sure what to make of it, but I like it. I can’t help but see spring training jerseys as a marketing tool to sell more crap. The jerseys, the coaches jackets and now special spring training hats change every other year. Just enough to make dumb people buy more shit. Pick what look works and stick with it. Score: ¥

2. 2005-2006 spring training jerseys

Beautiful. Clean, and unique. You never see that, especially with a design used previously by the team in Milwaukee. You can still find these garbs of hotness on eBay for cheap.

Compare to the current scheme. That photo is from 2007. You may notice the toned down hat foreskin for 2008. Anyone with me seeing a 2009 circumcision? Score: Hat Foreskin. Just to say that again.

1. Giles antic: Chargers helmet

Sometimes I feel spoiled watching our boy B break the standards of normalcy on a baseball team for my amusement. At least I assume it’s for my amusement. Though Brian may enjoy some derivative lulz for himself during attempts to make me and only me laugh. The point is there aren’t a lot of players who show off a goofy, lovable personality the way Brian Giles does. The definition of lovable is left to your own discretion.

Add an article like this to the mix, which shows Giles wearing said helmet like a jackass with nary an explanation and we get comedey gold. I love the this kind of non-sequitor behavior around baseball. Aside from the baseball part about baseball, of course. This is the stuff that makes Matty Vasgersian so special. Score:Melvin Nieves-worthy. That’s right. That high.

Do you have a favorite spring training uniform crazy? Share in the comments! Don’t forget to leave a score.

Also, if you haven’t voted in our top prospect poll on the right there, now’s as good a time as any. So far people are with me liking Kyle Blanks.