With the Padres possessing the third overall pick in this year’s MLB First-Year draft, we at the Sacrifice Bunt will be going through some of the different players that might be available once San Diego goes on the clock.

This counts Stephen Strasburg out. Sorry.

Leading up to draft day, we’ll help you get better acquainted with the various prospects, starting right now with Donavan Tate.

Biography

The 6′3″, 200 lb. Tate, who’s not to be confused with the actor Tate Donovan, is the son of former Tampa Bay Buccaneer Lars Tate. A two-sport star, Tate has actually committed to playing football at the University of North Carolina, after being courted by such programs as USC, Michigan, and Alabama. If he enrolls, Tate will have his eye on joining the school’s baseball team as well.

Currently a quarterback, it’s unclear where Tate will play on the baseball field if he suits up for UNC.

Scouting Data

Tate is a five-tool outfielder, and might be the toolsiest player in this year’s draft. During his football tryouts, Tate was clocked running a 4.4 40 and benched 300 lbs. On the diamond, his arm’s been clocked at 95 mph. And for good measure, he could probably sell a mean pair of jeans.

He’s received comparisons to the other Chris Young, hopefully meaning that he’s a center fielder with range and power, and not that he’s a hack machine.

He’s still in high school though, which means that many of his tools are very raw; it’s still unclear how he’s going to hit in the bigs. And with UNC waiting for him, his agent will no doubt use that in negotiations, making him a harder sign.

P.S. His agent is Scott Boras.

Performance Data

As Tate is still in high school, I have no idea where to start looking for his stats. If you do, please drop a link in the comment section. Thanks.

Where does Tate fit in the organization?

Tate is a legit centerfield prospect, which is something the team doesn’t really have. The current centerfielder of the future is Cedric Hunter, and many question whether or not he’ll be able to stick out there. Other centerfielders in the system include Jaff Decker, who’s currently playing left field for Ft. Wayne, and Will Venable, who lacks great speed.

There are questions surrounding Tate, but they don’t have to do with his defense.

He would also be a break from the drafting habits of the past couple of years. The Padres haven’t taken many high school players at the top of the draft, with Decker being one exception. To give you an idea of what this can mean, here’s an excerpt from an interview Mad Friars had with Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus:

Mad Friars: For an organization that has drafted heavily in college players, how do you explain that seven out of your Top 11 are either high school players, draft-and-follows, or Latin American signings?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s my theory that no one should draft all college players and fewer teams still do. In general, unless you are talking about elite college players, many have a lot of polish but they also have a tools weakness, which limits their ceiling. I use the Blue Jays as an example, a team that used to just draft college guys, where you end up with a lot of players like Aaron Hill and Russ Adams. They are fundamentally sound but are they going to make a huge difference? No. The Padres do go college heavy but this year you are beginning to see a new era with them. In Latin America, they spent some money on players that are young and with high ceilings. College players like savings bonds, pretty secure investment, but you are not going to be able to go out and buy the Mercedes with that investment either. Latin American and high school players are like Tech stocks. Often you lose, but when you hit, it’s really sweet.

The Padres find themselves in a fantastic position this year, where they can grab (almost) anyone they want, and they hopefully won’t find themselves in that spot again for a while. There are plenty of safer picks to take in this year’s draft, which we will cover in the coming weeks, but Tate might be this team’s opportunity to take a chance.

Remember how delusional Grady Fuson got when Baseball America announced the farm system as 29th in the league? I anticipate the team’s response following this:

Organizational Rankings: #25 – San Diego Padres

Our much revered Fangraphs has begun listing all 30 Major League clubs in descending order and, as you don’t even need to click to see, the Padres ended up at 25th. 

The grading was broken down into Ownership, Front Office, Major League Talent and Minor League Talent. Some highlights:

Ownership: N/A

This is an ownership group in transition, and we just don’t have enough information to give them any kind of grade.

This one seems kind of obvious. They go on to say that there is a sense of shadiness behind the sale to Moorad, as he still had a stake in the Diamondbacks. Personally, I think it’d only be appropriate if a conflict of interest blows up in our face. Nothing’s impossible.

Front Office: B-

Kevin Towers is a smart, likable guy, and currently the longest tenured GM in the game… However, there’s some serious question marks about how the team will be run going forward. With Alderson on the way out, does he take Asst. GM Paul DePodesta with him? Can Towers avoid being fired if the team struggles in 2009, especially with new ownership?

Really, not to be a bloodsucker, but it seems like they went a little soft on the front office. Towers’ legacy in San Diego speaks for itself, but he had a rough 2008. Go through our archives and you won’t see too many “Hey, we signed this guy!” articles, unless they were followed by a “Hey, we traded this guy for not a whole lot!” article. Then there’s our impossibly disappointing minor league system, the uncertainty going forward, and our general 2009 awfulness, and that B- grade seems a bit generous. 

Major League Talent: C-

Regression needs to be expected from both, and there just isn’t much in the way of run production for the Padres outside of (Gerut and Giles) and Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley is a solid enough young player, but when he represents the hopes of your future line-up, things aren’t great.

Fangraphs makes a potentially dubious statement in “the pitchers aren’t as good as advertised, and the hitters are a bit better than everyone thinks.” I’m not sure why the pitchers are flat-out not as good but the hitters are just kinda sorta better. Petco Park still eats statistics for breakfast. The Three-G’s all had a road OPS near .900, with Adrian topping out at .946. Only Giles made it over .800 at home. Maybe the scrub seatholders are only a bit better on the road, but I don’t like defining the team by them. 

Minor League Talent: C-

There aren’t any position prospects here that everyone loves, and the ranks of the pitching prospects are full of guys who throw 87 MPH and try to get by on smarts. It isn’t a horrible farm system, but it’s not a very good one either, and for a team in need of a talent injection, that’s a problem.

Hey, “isn’t a horrible farm system.” That’s pretty good! But seriously, this cuts to the core of this team’s problem. We can talk all day about the missing $30 million and how that’s hindering the team, but the fact remains that this team needs that $30 million because it has yet to start producing its own talent. While other teams in our league are filling out their lineups with homegrowns, the Padres have Chase Headley and Nick Hundley. And with the exception of Kyle Blanks, no one’s really close. I think this fact needs better representation in the Front Office grade.

I’ll leave you with Fangraph’s summation of this team’s fortunes going forward. Have a good weekend!

Overall: C

 If you’re a glass half full guy, you can hold onto the fact that the D’Backs were very well ran while Moorad was in Arizona, and that the front office is full of guys who could run a team well. If you’re a glass half empty guy, then you see an organization that lacks talent, has only a couple of really valuable players (two of whom have full no-trade clauses), and who plays in a division with two teams that are better, younger, and have greater revenue steams. I have a feeling that San Diego is in for some tough times ahead.

Grady Fuson, if you didn’t know, is in charge of overseeing the Padres minor league system, and he recently took exception with Baseball America’s ranking of the Padres farm system as 29^th best, or 2^nd worst, in the league.

As we’ve discussed before, the public perception of our farm system is bleak. Along with BA, Keith Law ranked the team at 19^th, and John Sickles and Baseball Prospectus were also less than enthused. But neither of them were as harsh as BA, which is where Fuson’s directed his ire.

Said Fuson: “It’s impossible. It just has to be.”

Fuson, who oversees the farm system and the draft, said the Padres belong in the Top 10, not the bottom two.

——–

“Let’s take the true Baseball America that we all know,” Fuson said Monday. “We all know that they love high school, first two rounds, and/or overpaid type players. The reality is that we are a little more selective in that group. So, in other words, we don’t take every high school guy that runs and throws, or that has a 93 mph fastball, just because he throws 93. We’re a little more selective with delivery, with a true ability on projecting some command down the road.

“When it comes to the offensive players, do I want (those) that can run and throw? You bet. But we are also very offensive-minded in our selections. With that said, I think we should be judged a little bit on the quality in the last three or fours years on the offensive players – not just the one-dimensional bangers – but with skills that can play. How can you define those guys as non-upside guys?”

Padres officials come to the defense of the organization’s farm system

One more time: “It’s impossible. It just has to be.”

I remember there was a time when it looked like the Padres were putting together an All-Star front office, with Fuson and Sandy Alderson and Paul DePodesta. I imagine it’s difficult to find anyone who would term the F.O. as an All-Star squad at this point, and Fuson’s defensiveness does nothing to help matters.

I realize that Fuson defending the minor league system is not a problem. It’s his job, afterall. And it’s good that he takes offense to BA’s dramatically low ranking, which I’m not necessarily endorsing. But top 10? Are we supposed to take Fuson seriously?

Does he actually think that the Padres have a top 10 minor league system?
Let’s assume for a second that Fuson actually believes his own non-sense. All of a sudden, I’m not comfortable with Fuson’s ability as a system builder.

From the UT article:

Fuson mentioned, among many others, Kulbacki, a left fielder who batted .332 with 20 home runs last year in 84 games with Single-A Lake Elsinore; pitcher Wynn Pelzer, a right-hander ticketed for Lake Elsinore’s rotation this year, who was 9-6 with a 3.19 ERA at Single-A Fort Wayne; and Hunter, a center fielder who batted .318 with 11 home runs in 134 games with Lake Elsinore.
“You can’t say that Kulbacki doesn’t look like an impact player,” he said. “Pelzer, this guy is smart. This is a guy that has good stuff. If Cedric Hunter’s career is Jody Gerut, that’s a pretty good big league ballplayer. I could see where somebody would say that is not impact, but that’s a pretty good big-league ballplayer.”

Moving past the craziness of comparing Cedric Hunter’s career to Jody Gerut’s injury-riddled one, Fuson sounds like a desperate man who can’t handle criticism. I’d say it’s because he can feel the ax coming, but Alderson has his back:

“Everybody sees the depth that we have in our minor league system. At this point, perhaps people don’t see one outstanding prospect. … Really, only one of our top-rated prospects had a disappointing year in any real sense, and that was Antonelli. Anybody else, like LeBlanc – we were pushing our guys to higher levels. So, that, together with the fact we had a very strong draft (in 2008) and a number of those players are ranked in our Top 10, and we had some great signings internationally – (being ranked 29th) just doesn’t make any sense. Of course, there were other publications that ranked us much higher.”

Of course, we’ve already discussed Alderson’s impending departure, but maybe his comments shed some light on an organizational content with a minor league system that is universally listed in the bottom half of the league (despite their own objection) and is so barren that the big league team is looking at Cha Seung Baek as its third starter. Afterall, it’s impossible that this team is the 29^th worst in the league. It just has to be.

And with that, a dark chapter in Padres history has come to a close.

Yesterday, news of the release of Matt Bush, to make room for free agent Cliff Floyd (whose acquisition I like), came down with a chorus of WTFs. How could Bush and his 95 MPH fastball get cut over the Joe Thatchers of the 40 man roster? Last night, we found out why:

El Cajon police Lt. Steve Shakowski yesterday confirmed an investigation involving Bush and allegations of assaultive behavior and public intoxication. A witness, who requested his name not be used because of the ongoing police investigation, said Bush was drunk, threw a golf club into the dirt, picked up and threw a freshman lacrosse player and hit another one. Bush also yelled “I’m Matt (expletive) Bush,” and “(expletive) East County,” before driving over a curb in his Mercedes when leaving the campus, according to the witness.

Padres cut ties with Matt Bush

As you might remember, Bush’s Padre career began under similar circumstances when, less than two weeks after he was made the number one pick overall, he was arrested outside of a Peoria bar. He followed this up with a short stint as a terrible shortstop, ending his offensive career with an OBP and SLG both below .300. 

Bush finally provided reason for confidence when the team moved him to the mound. A pitcher in high school, Bush was clocked at 95 and struck out 16 in 7.2 innings, before the team shut him down with a torn ligament in his pitching elbow. After sitting out the entire 2008 season, this was to be the year that Bush started making good on his highest of high draft pick. But now, he’ll have to do that on another team.

I literally feel uncomfortable discussing Matt Bush. The team has done so much to distance themselves from his pick, which has to be at the top of the list of low points for the team. Grady Fuson and Sandy Alderson came onboard to solidify the team’s decision making after they passed on Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, and Stephen Drew in the 2004 draft. The team went discount when they chose Matt Bush and they’ve paid for it.

Of course, Alderson’s now gone, but his replacement might be the silver lining to this story.

It was Jeff Moorad’s Diamondbacks who made Justin Upton the number one pick in the 2005 draft, and Moorad has a reputation for being aggressive in the draft, getting praise from Scott Boras, of all people, who said:

“Jeff believes in going after draft picks,” said agent Scott Boras, a former rival of Moorad’s whose yearly stable of future clients includes several players chosen in the first round. “You’ve got to remember: Jeff cut his teeth in the baseball business representing draft players.”

Moorad would boost strength in draft

Since Moorad took over, the Diamondbacks have used their first round picks on Upton, Max Scherzer, Jarrod Parker, and Dan Schlereth. Upton and Scherzer have already become productive members of the major league team, while Parker is a top 20 prospect in baseball, and Schlereth has jumped to the top of Arizona’s system. The Padres have had less luck in the past four years, with none of their four picks scheduled to begin the season in San Diego.

This is especially promising, as the Padres have the third pick in the 2009 draft. With Grant Green or Alex White dropping to the Padres spot, it’s likely that the team will have Matt Bush looking over their shoulder, even if he’s not in the system anymore. But using this pick wisely might help to finally brush him off.

Ray Update: Bush has been traded to the Blue Jays for a PTBNL.

Build, Break, Rebuild

“The draft has never been anything but a fucking crapshoot. We take fifty guys and we celebrate if two of them make it. In what other business is two for fifty a success? If you did that in the stock market, you’d go broke.” -Billy Beane

While 2003 may have been the end to an era, it would be difficult to argue that much had changed following the 2004 Amateur Draft. In a draft where the executive decisions were inexplicably carried out by owner John Moores, the Padres drafted local Mission Bay High School product, Matt Bush. The team immediately felt the return of their $3.15 million investment when, 13 days later, Bush was arrested in a night club scuffle under suspicion of “felony assault, and misdemeanor trespass and disorderly conduct… [and] underage drinking.” What’s worse, the dude’s a biter.

The move was immediately scrutinized as many believed it was merely predicated due to a financial bottom line as opposed to acquiring top shelf talent. While this isn’t necessarily a fair assessment (Bush was considered a Top 10 prospect in many circles and the Padres weren’t the only team who refused to pay premium prices for first round picks), the move ushered in a new philosophy and face for the front office:

John Moores rebuilt the Padres’ entire draft and development department, from the top down. Sandy Alderson, former executive with Major League Baseball became a part owner and team CEO. Grady Fuson, who nearly worked his way to general manager in the Texas Rangers’ system due to his extensive experience as a scout and talent evaluator, was named Padres Director of Scouting. Paul DePodesta, former Executive Vice President and General Manager for the Los Angeles Dodgers became Padres Special Assistant for Baseball Operations.

The franchise distanced itself from frivolous spending and settled with modest payrolls ranked either near or below the Major League average; fan favorites left via free agency. While the casual fan saw departing players and the concept of a modest player payroll as a black mark upon the franchise, the team began a new approach to the draft to create an advantage.

Since the move to Petco Park, the Padres have struggled promoting from within due to years of neglect that relegated their farm system near useless, ranking near the worst in the league up until this past season (courtesy of Baseball America):

2005: 27th

2006: 29th

2007: 29th

2008: 12th

The marked improvement can definitely be attributed to the new franchise philosophy and although this couldn’t happen overnight, the franchise continues to exhaust every effort in order to restock their depleted farm system. The methods in which Alderson and company sought to improve this franchise were dubbed by sportswriter Tom Krasovic as “Sandyball,” and simply reiterated the importance of acquiring extra draft picks in any way possible:

[Getting extra draft picks] is done by offering salary arbitration to a free agent who played for your club the previous season. If the player declines and signs with another team, the original club gets one or two high-end picks in the next June amateur draft. Under Alderson, the Padres have obtained 12 extra picks, including seven in 2007 and another three for the upcoming June draft. From 2000-2005, they had two extra picks. “The farm system has improved,” Alderson said. “That’s partly because of more draft picks. But it’s also partly more effective use of draft picks.”

The method – from the standpoint of retooling the farm system – worked. As outlined above, over the past three years the Padres have hoarded sandwich picks more than at any other point in franchise history and, in that time, selected more players in the first three rounds than any other team in baseball.

Money allocated for contracts to Padres’ draft picks is also far more significant than in years past. In 2007, the Padres managed to sign all but one of their twelve first day draft picks and this year they not only had a successful Amateur Draft, but they locked up an additional $4.8 million in player contracts during the International Draft – which, not so coincidentally, is the first year in which the Padres’ $8.5 million scouting facility in the Dominican Republic has been open. That total, according to a report in the Union Tribune, was approximately five times their normal amount, “as the Padres spend about $1 million during the international signing period.” Of the five players taken that day, all four that played in Latin America made ESPN’s Top 12 “Best Latino Prospects of 2008” list.

The hope is that their growth and maturity as a franchise continues with an unshakable focus for sustained future prosperity, no matter how the major league squad is playing at the moment. With this front office and the impressions they’ve made through their accomplishments, there’s reason to be optimistic.

Kevin Goldstein’s Padres prospect list is out and holy shitballs, Chase Headley and Matt Antonelli are five star prospects! There have been rumblings that these two are solid yet not top caliber guys. Goldstein disagrees, and ranks our top boys with the likes of Andy LaRoche, Cabrera trade centerpiece Cameron Maybin, and Dan Haren bounty Carlos Gonzalez.

Headley and Antonelli will find their place around the young core of Jake Peavy, Chris Young, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Adrian Gonzalez, and Khalil Greene.

The “perfect world projection” is the most fun part of Goldstein’s analysis, as our imaginations go wild with expectations of what might be. Goldstein expects middle of the order offensive production from Headley, while his position on the diamond is still to be determined.

He sees Antonelli as:

An offense-oriented second baseman who can hit leadoff, smack 15-20 home runs a year, and steal 25-30 bases.

If I were a cartoon my eyes would be wide open with dollar signs flashing at these projections. The dollar signs of course refer to the untold advertising riches reaped by the proprietor of a blog dedicated to the newest MLB dynasty, the San Diego Padres.

Here’s the final list:

Five-Star Prospects
1. Chase Headley, 3B/OF
2. Matt Antonelli, 2B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Matt Latos, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
4. Drew Miller, RHP
5. Cesar Carrillo, RHP
6. Drew Cumberland, SS
7. Wade LeBlanc, LHP
8. Will Inman, RHP
9. Kyle Blanks, 1B
Two-Star Prospects
10. Kellen Kulbacki, OF
11. Mitch Canham, C

The next surprise is Kyle Blanks as a two star at number 9. Though the star system is designed to eliminate the near pointless debates on minor list order discrepancies, I have to say I expected a high ceiling guy like Blanks a bit further up the list. Goldstein identifies Blanks’ larger, limiting physique as his biggest hindrance. Goldstein also clarifies the ranking by mentioning scouts’ general disagreement on Blanks’ projection.

The current minor league system is a testament to the abilities Sandy Alderson and Grady Fuson have to improve our team’s future. The turnaround these two (among others) engineered in three short years is more than commendable.

As a small market organization, we are lucky to have smart business men in charge who keep us competitive with our more abundant neighboring markets. I’ve said it before, but what an encouraging time it is to be a fan.

PS, If any Baseball Prospectus bigwigs are reading this, let me make up for my blatant ripoff of your content with a no kickback endorsement of Baseball Prospectus’ subscription offerings. Now holla at us in our new poll! Who should be after Latos?