Padres add Stairs for veteran presence (ESPN)

According to Jerry Crasnick, the Padres have signed Matt Stairs to a minor league deal with an invite to the big league camp.

I like this deal, but I like having a left-handed power-bat on the bench. This seemed to be the offseason to get one, with a couple of veterans finding themselves disregarded, but following Jason Giambi’s return to the Rockies and the AL Central’s interest in Jim Thome, the pickings still seemed slim. Truth be told, Stairs was not very good last year, or the year before, his monster bomb off of Broxton in the NLCS not withstanding, but he has dropped 30 pounds. If Stairs comes into Spring Training as serious as his weight-loss suggests, he would be a great addition to our already impressive bench.

Headley at hot corner a heated decision (Union-Tribune)

Tim Sullivan fills us in on some behind the scenes gossip behind Chase Headley’s move to third.

“Buddy (Black) and I were on the same page,” Towers said recently, describing the Padres’ philosophical divide before his dismissal as general manager. “I’d keep Kouz and trade Headley. But DePo (Paul DePodesta) has always been a huge Headley fan. Huge. As was Sandy (Alderson). Headley was kind of our poster child.”

To which Black responded with a diplomatic “That serves no purpose.” Because of course he did.

I hope that someone gives Towers a studio job, just so we can watch him react to Padres updates as they happen.

I’ve been seeing, or maybe just feeling, a lot of people wondering when the Padres are going to start the offseason. While the team has resigned Kevin Correia and brought in Dusty Ryan for catching depth, it’s a fair question. Many of the big names are off the table (this article is written on the heels of former Padre Jason Bay signing with the Mets), but the Padres were never going to be players in that game. Smaller names have also gone, including Mike Cameron, and that is more of an area of concern. Just not a big one.

Picking up Brian Giles’ extension last offseason was a mistake. Which isn’t to say that it was a bad call, because it wasn’t. Giles had a great 2008, and he looked like a steal at $6 million (his option was for $9 million, but he had a $3 million buyout), but we now know that Giles was a detriment to the team. For just as much money, the team could’ve signed Bobby Abreu*. The Angels gave $5 million to Abreu to play right field, and he rewarded them with 2.5 wins. And while the Padres locked their right fielder up in early November, the Angels waited until February to get theirs.

(*There are a lot of factors that go into a player signing in a certain city, and just because a veteran All-Star signed at a price to play for a team with a serious shot at the World Series doesn’t mean he would with a team that just cut ties with it’s franchise player over money.)

Jed Hoyer, it would seem, is in no hurry. Which isn’t to say that nothing’s happened, because players the Padres have shown interest in have signed somewhere (Coco Crisp, Henry Blanco). It’s just that none have signed with us. And that’s not a bad thing.

It’s not just about free agents with question marks that saw their prices go down, though Orlando Hudson would be a nice little upgrade. In the past couple of weeks, the Oakland A’s have added two more outfielders (Crisp, Michael Taylor) to go with the ones they already have (Rajai Davis, Ryan Sweeney, and Scott Hairston). While it’s not a given, I wonder if the A’s are looking/willing to move one of them. Maybe the right-handed center fielder who’s shown that he can handle Petco Park. The Padres have shown an interest in a right-handed hitting center fielder and, with Tony Gwynn, Jr. already on the team, he doesn’t even have to hit right-handed pitching. A platoon partner for AJ could be a very economical acquisition for the team and one option that didn’t present itself until recently.

I don’t know what Hoyer’s thinking. Maybe he’s still busy assembling his front office team. Maybe he’s not done familiarizing himself with the Padres and what he has to work with. Or maybe he’s found himself caught up in the hardcore world of carne asada and is in need of an intervention. These are all reasonable explanations for why this team has been so inactive this postseason, and to be fair, it could all be a matter of Hoyer having no idea what he’s doing. Just remember that the season hasn’t started.

I invite you to think back on the offseason prior to the 2006 season. In an attempt to make room for Josh Barfield, and following the acquisition of Cameron and Vinny Castilla to fill two other holes, Kevin Towers sent Mark Loretta to Boston for Doug Mirabelli. The team would later sign Todd Greene to serve as his backup, giving the team a veteran backstop duo. And then, on February 3rd, the team released Greene to make way for Mike Piazza, who was coming off an injury-plagued and down (by his standards) year. For a million and a quarter, Towers brought in a legitimate cleanup hitter who slugged over .500. And he waited till February to do it.

R. Update:

This article names Reed Johnson as AJ’s potential platoon partner. His is an intriguing name, as he has a career OPS against left-handed pitching of .841, in over a thousand plate appearances. And he’s a free agent.

Back in April, I asked Jeff Moorad if he would be involved in player personnel decision making. Here was his response:

I believe in letting the club’s GM take a leadership role in all personnel decisions — I’ll be available as a resource as needed.

At the time, this was great news. From what I’ve seen so far, Moorad has a lot of good ideas about running a team. What he hasn’t shown, at least publicly, is a the in depth knowledge of advanced player evaluation methods, or roster management theory needed to succeed making baseball decisions for an entire organization.

Unfortunately, the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reports that Moorad and I may have different interpretations of what a “leadership role” means.

It was clear that [Kevin] Towers might not have been on the same wavelength as Moorad on whether Gonzalez must go. Towers was obviously listening to offers, while Moorad was thinking Gonzalez was still one of the few draws the Padres had, so they should keep him.

I’m not exactly encouraged. Hopefully, now that Moorad has his guy Jed Hoyer in charge, he really will leave the roster decisions up to those with the experience and track record in making them.

As Madfriars’ John Conniff notes in his excellent article on the dismissal of Kevin Towers, the Padres search for GM isn’t just for Towers’ replacement. The team will look for the replacement of former CEO Sandy Alderson as well.

While future owner Jeff Moorad has taken over the title of CEO from Alderson, Moorad has said he will wisely leave most of the player personal decisions to those executives with more experience in player evaluation.

This means the Padres next general manager will serve at least two major functions. The first will be to build teams for the near term through roster management and trades. One might recognize this as the gunslinger role. The GM’s second responsibility will be in designing and executing a long term, strategic plan.

Some example aspects of such a plan might include a focus on OBP, the expansion of foreign player development, or the creation and maintenance of a statistical database.

If Sandy Alderson were still around, my first choice to lead the front office would be the continued Towers / Alderson / Paul DePodesta multiple-headed approach. With Alderson unable to experience first hand the culmination of his long term vision, Towers alone does not possess the tools necessary to what is needed.

Jed Hoyer

The man most apt to succeed in both major roles is Red Sox assistant general manager Jed Hoyer. But don’t this goofy named blogger’s word for it. Listen for yourself:

As boring as it sounds, I believe that the most important thing is to have a well-constructed, well-thought out process to player acquisitions. As long as you have a plan, which the Red Sox certainly have, and you try to turn over every rock to find answers, you give yourself the best possible chance to be right more than you’re wrong.

What is the process, you ask? You don’t think my name is goofy, but rather a clever take on Padres history? Well thank you. Also, there’s this:

As we see it, we want every piece of information possible before making a decision. We have spent a lot of time and energy in developing our quantitative methods and we certainly use them in making player personnel decisions. But we also have a lot of great scouts and we read their reports and have lengthy conversations with all of them before making decisions. The idea that teams are either “Moneyball” teams or “scouting” teams is an incredible over-simplification. You need to have both of those components – as well as medical and contractual – to make an educated decision on a player.

Hoyer comes from the vain of guys like Paul DePodesta, Theo Epstein, and Josh Byrnes. They spent their college years learning the ropes of analysis, the use of evidence in decision making, and so on. They got to where they are through demonstration of proficiency in running a major league ball club.

The extra emphasis on the idea that no team should be just stats or scouts sounds a lot like Paul DePodesta. Tom Krasovic notes that Paul has some clout over the final decision, and my hunch says Hoyer is DePo’s pick. Which is great, since Paul was my original choice to succeed Towers. I had the graphic made and everything.

Boston.com reports as far back as 2005, Hoyer is the “prime confidant” of Red Sox GM Theo Epstein after now Diamondbacks GM Josh Byrnes. Speaking of Byrnes, he was hired as GM by a group including Moorad in Arizona, a strong signal of the type of leader the Padres CEO values.

It’s not a blog post without something negative

Right? Lets look for some.

Two knocks on Jed derive from the environment of his current employer. In many ways, most importantly market size, running a team in San Diego couldn’t be more different than doing so in Boston. Would Hoyer even be willing to leave a romantic, big market, ring winning, accent-talking-with place like Boston for the unknown small market that is San Diego? And could he survive on a budget with a few fewer Fantas stocked in the General Manger’s fridge?

His experience in analysis and player development will play anywhere, and are probably more valuable in a smaller market than a larger one. With a smaller budget, a small market GM’s margin for error drops off fast. Hoyer did interview for GM gigs in Pittsburgh and Washington, and though he wasn’t hired bu those teams he also didn’t withdraw. He seems like he would be interested. I think we’re good. Besides, San Diego is Beer Capital, USA! Maybe our next (and first) TSB meetup will include a drink-off. Nothing bad has ever come from competitive drinking, right?

Who else is there?

The other candidates, including Kim Ng, don’t have the balance the Padres need, most of them too far on the scouting side. Again if Alderson was still around for balance, Ng would be a fine choice by my estimation. But at that point, the team might just as well have stuck with Towers.

Since I started writing this article two weeks ago, Hoyer has became the clear front runner for the job. So if it sucks, it’s because I need to get the post out before I lose any more street cred being late to the party. Ok, so, conclusion: vote Jed, because he’s like Paul DePodesta with fewer people who irrationally hate him.

…Says Kevin Towers.

A quick look at the Padres’ Pythagorean win-loss record indicates otherwise. It measures team performance more accurately than regular win-loss by using runs scored and runs allowed. The Padres Pythagorean record puts them at 63-90. Paints a different picture than their current actual 70-83 record, huh?

Also: the pitchers as a whole have an 84 ERA+!

Shout out to Gaslamp Ball.

Mark Worrell, the right-handed relief pitcher with an unorthodox delivery who was acquired from St. Louis in exchange for shortstop Khalil Greene, will miss the 2009 season.

Worrell has returned to San Diego where he will have “Tommy John” elbow reconstruction surgery next Wednesday.

Reliever Worrell out for the season, needs reconstructive elbow surgery

I’m not sure what bothers me more: another Padres pitcher going down with T.J. surgery or how poorly the Khalil trade has already played out.

I think it’s the worry that the Kevin Towers we once knew and loved doesn’t exist anymore.

Remember how delusional Grady Fuson got when Baseball America announced the farm system as 29th in the league? I anticipate the team’s response following this:

Organizational Rankings: #25 – San Diego Padres

Our much revered Fangraphs has begun listing all 30 Major League clubs in descending order and, as you don’t even need to click to see, the Padres ended up at 25th. 

The grading was broken down into Ownership, Front Office, Major League Talent and Minor League Talent. Some highlights:

Ownership: N/A

This is an ownership group in transition, and we just don’t have enough information to give them any kind of grade.

This one seems kind of obvious. They go on to say that there is a sense of shadiness behind the sale to Moorad, as he still had a stake in the Diamondbacks. Personally, I think it’d only be appropriate if a conflict of interest blows up in our face. Nothing’s impossible.

Front Office: B-

Kevin Towers is a smart, likable guy, and currently the longest tenured GM in the game… However, there’s some serious question marks about how the team will be run going forward. With Alderson on the way out, does he take Asst. GM Paul DePodesta with him? Can Towers avoid being fired if the team struggles in 2009, especially with new ownership?

Really, not to be a bloodsucker, but it seems like they went a little soft on the front office. Towers’ legacy in San Diego speaks for itself, but he had a rough 2008. Go through our archives and you won’t see too many “Hey, we signed this guy!” articles, unless they were followed by a “Hey, we traded this guy for not a whole lot!” article. Then there’s our impossibly disappointing minor league system, the uncertainty going forward, and our general 2009 awfulness, and that B- grade seems a bit generous. 

Major League Talent: C-

Regression needs to be expected from both, and there just isn’t much in the way of run production for the Padres outside of (Gerut and Giles) and Adrian Gonzalez. Chase Headley is a solid enough young player, but when he represents the hopes of your future line-up, things aren’t great.

Fangraphs makes a potentially dubious statement in “the pitchers aren’t as good as advertised, and the hitters are a bit better than everyone thinks.” I’m not sure why the pitchers are flat-out not as good but the hitters are just kinda sorta better. Petco Park still eats statistics for breakfast. The Three-G’s all had a road OPS near .900, with Adrian topping out at .946. Only Giles made it over .800 at home. Maybe the scrub seatholders are only a bit better on the road, but I don’t like defining the team by them. 

Minor League Talent: C-

There aren’t any position prospects here that everyone loves, and the ranks of the pitching prospects are full of guys who throw 87 MPH and try to get by on smarts. It isn’t a horrible farm system, but it’s not a very good one either, and for a team in need of a talent injection, that’s a problem.

Hey, “isn’t a horrible farm system.” That’s pretty good! But seriously, this cuts to the core of this team’s problem. We can talk all day about the missing $30 million and how that’s hindering the team, but the fact remains that this team needs that $30 million because it has yet to start producing its own talent. While other teams in our league are filling out their lineups with homegrowns, the Padres have Chase Headley and Nick Hundley. And with the exception of Kyle Blanks, no one’s really close. I think this fact needs better representation in the Front Office grade.

I’ll leave you with Fangraph’s summation of this team’s fortunes going forward. Have a good weekend!

Overall: C

 If you’re a glass half full guy, you can hold onto the fact that the D’Backs were very well ran while Moorad was in Arizona, and that the front office is full of guys who could run a team well. If you’re a glass half empty guy, then you see an organization that lacks talent, has only a couple of really valuable players (two of whom have full no-trade clauses), and who plays in a division with two teams that are better, younger, and have greater revenue steams. I have a feeling that San Diego is in for some tough times ahead.

PECOTA’S Standings (Friar Forecast)

Mr. Logan over at Friar Forecast has a nice write-up on the 2009 predictions and they’re actually not that bad. At least, coming off a season during which the Padres won only 63 games, 74 doesn’t sound so bad. Although, PECOTA isn’t quite an exact science; for 2008, it had the Padres winning 83 games. Maybe we’ll win 94 this year? Probably not, although I feel like the Padres are a couple of fortuitous breaks from contention. One such break would be the return of this man.

Prior is ready to give it one more shot; ‘I don’t want to give up,’ he says (San Diego Union-Tribune)

“Cautiously optimistic.” Those are actually Mark Prior’s words, when discussing his 2009. “If he’s healthy, and all the reports thus far are encouraging, Prior is my ace in the hole.” Those are Kevin Towers’ words, and the optimist in me prefers what Towers has to say. If Prior can at least stay on the mound for 20-some starts and hold Baek back from the third spot in the rotation, the team’s chances of success jump up.

Jake Peavy breaks his silence (Gaslamp Ball)

jbox threw up Peavy’s comments on 1090 yesterday, and they’re rather refreshing after the war Peavy and the front office waged on each other this off-season. Especially refreshing is Peavy’s denial that he ever sang “Go Cubs Go.” Ah, much better. Here’s your knife back, Jake. Sorry for the confusion.

Padres by Position (San Diego Union-Tribune)

Starting with Adrian, Blanks, and first base, Bill Center has been documenting the Padres, position-by-position (hey!). While the articles are a bit sparse, Center does a good job of covering the Padres from top to bottom. He even manages to sneak in a couple juicy nuggets, like how the Padres are looking at moving third baseman Logan Forsythe to catcher.

Best outfield arms of 2008 (The Hardball Times)

Remember when I said Brian Giles was one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, and that pushed him past Adrian as the MVPadre for 08? Well, about that- The Hardball Times has recently published numbers on outfield arms and Giles’ is unsurprisingly atrocious. He can still run them down, and he’s still worth 1.1 more wins than Adrian, so I stand by my MVPadre pick, but, uh, yeah.

Padres bolster infield with Eckstein

The internet’s least favorite player is officially a San Diego Padre.

It appears that David Eckstein will become the Padres fourth Opening Day second baseman since the departure of Mark Loretta, following in the depressing footsteps of Josh Barfield, Marcus Giles, and Tad Iguchi.

Eckstein’s spent the better part of the past eight seasons as a shortstop, although he moved to second after being acquired by Moorad’s old team in August. Eckstein’s defense at short has been steadily deteriorating and, according to Tangotiger’s fan scouting reports, his arm strength has been getting worse, bottoming out at 0 this year. Luckily for us, second base is closer to first than shortstop.

Offensively, Eckstein hasn’t done much. He posted a career high wOBA of .335 with the Cardinals in 2005. Never in his career has he posted a slugging percentage over .400 but he’s had some good on-base percentages. Over the past three seasons, his OBP has been .350, which is something the team hasn’t gotten from the middle infield since 2004.

For 2009, the projections for Eckstein look like:

Not good, but that OBP might be a silver lining. And he’ll be back making under $1 million, so we’ve got that going for us.

Something else interesting to come out of this is the appearance of solidity Eckstein gives in the 4 hole. Towers has spent the past couple of months collecting second baseman. Eckstein is the latest name on a list that includes Luis Rodriguez, Travis Denker, Chris Burke, Edgar Gonzalez, and Matt Antonelli. With Eckstein taking over at second, Rodriguez would seem to be the team’s shortstop going into the new season, and Antonelli will likely start the year in Portland. From there, Burke and Gonzalez are utility guys who can play all over the infield and in the outfield, with Burke owning 500 innings experience in centerfield. This leaves Denker, who projects to be a monster, left needing a big Spring Training.

Having brought you Tom Tango’s fan scouting report, we now present the Marcel the Monkey Forecasting System, or simply Marcel 2009. In plain speak, here are projections for your/our 2009 San Diego Padres. At least, the players still on the team as of this writing.

FIP by the way stands for Fielding Independent Pitching. It uses strikeouts, walks, and home runs, 3 results all pitchers have direct control over, to evaluate performance. It is scaled to look like ERA so it’s nice and easy.

These stats were all compiled using Fangraphs.com, a Sacrifice Bunt endorsed website. Fangraphs also features another series of projections by Lord Bill James. We chose Marcel for reasons of totality: it simply projects more players. And these two are definitely independent projections. While some are eerily close, others are far off.

Where Marcel predicts Jake Peavy with a 3.25 E.R.A. and 9.00 K/9, James has the Peavs at 3.26 and a 9.00 K/9. Not all players are so close. Marcel predicts Chase Headley posting a .772 O.P.S. where James puts him more than 75 points higher at .848. James also sees Will Venable at .688, 71 points lower than Marcel.

Clearly, prognostications should be taken for what they are, especially since Marcels is touted by creator Tom Tango as “the most basic forecasting system you can have, that uses as little intelligence as possible.” But let’s assume that this are true predictions. What/who jumps out?

(Besides Travis Denker. WTF?)