Edmonds is released by Padres

In 90 at-bats, he hit one home run and two doubles while striking out 10 times. His 38 OPS+ is the lowest on the team of any player with 60 at-bats, the next lowest being Khalil at 53. He also created 6 runs. For some perspective, in his best season (2004: 170 OPS+), Edmonds created 8 runs in his first 32 at-bats.

Along with his struggles at the plate, Edmonds was not the defender most people remembered from his time in St. Louis and Anaheim. He seemed to lack the speed he needed to get to most balls.  Hollywood Jim was no where to be found.

He got off to a poor start with the Padres, suffering a strained calf during Spring Training. This caused him to miss the rest of Spring Training and the beginning of the year. Towers was quick to take this in mind, telling XX:

“I think he probably got a mulligan for the first two to three weeks just based on missing all spring. But, you know, certainly he’s lost a step or two. I think that’s been pretty obvious in the outfield, going back on balls, covering the gaps. And he just doesn’t seem to have his legs underneath him (or) the bat speed with guys that have plus velocity.”

Well, sort of.

Of course, we at The Sacrifice Bunt deserve much of the blame. It was us who started up the Edmonds bandwagon, saying way back in December:

Hollywood Jim could be a classic turnaround story. He’s already on the team’s radar and if he’s as healthy as he says he is, why not? If he bounces back to an average player by his standards, he’ll still be a middle of the lineup guy.

Whoops. Sorry.

Edmonds will be replaced by Jody Gerut, who was hitting 308/.382/.570 in Portland.

Huntington: Other GMs Being Smart Makes It Suckier For Us Padres Fans (Timesonlline.com)

One potential offseason scenario bantered about in our heads involves trading Khalil Greene with prospect for Jason Bay. This would improve our defense at shortstop, and fill out the outfield with a good hitter humanly capable of laying off an outside slider. Trade the overvalued, and sign / trade for the undervalued, right?

Quite frankly, we would be selling low in just about any trade we could possibly make and we’re not going to sell low,” Huntington said. “We need to build depth in this organization and the only way you can build that depth is to trade players when their value is high.

Damn. Have I mentioned that as a Padre fan, Neil Huntington scares the crap out of me? Guess we won’t be getting Snell to top the deal off.

Nobody broke the news to Jason Bay and others that doing things to look good isn’t the answer. This just in: other teams don’t give out talent for nothing. I mean, uh, Meredith for Bay!

2008 Padres: A Call To Arms (MLB Fleece Factor)

Nice little rundown of the state of the Padres. Tip of the old noodle to GaslampBall.

Padres Near $11 million dollar two year deal with Greene (Yahoo / Associated Press)

The Padres don’t like going to arbitration, so this avoids the process for Greene’s remaining eligible years. I enjoy this gem from writer Bernie Wilson:

Retaining Greene is important since he’s one of the Padres’ few homegrown talents.

Ok. Guess we missed the boat releasing Jack Cassel, he was homegrown too.

Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, and MiLB.com release top prospects list (Kevin Goldstein, Keith Law, and Nobody, respectively)

Baseball Prospectus lists Headley (23), Antonelli (39), and Latos (61). You’ll need a subscription to read it.

ESPN says Headley (43), Blanks (68), and Antonelli (93) are the team’s top farm hands. You’ll need an insider membership to read it. Don’t get one.

MiLB.com puts Antonelli (27) and Headley (29) as the best in our farm, out of only 50. It’s free since no writer will take credit.

We’ve seen other lists tell similar tales. Headley and Antonelli are studs and likely to become productive major leaguers, but probably not superstars. First baseman Kyle Blanks and pitcher Mat Latos are younger and riskier, but have higher ceilings.

We’re playing around with polls. Enjoy!

[poll=2]

Khalil Greene Named 2007 Padres MVP

…when captain .290 OBP is the team’s most valuable player? Why can’t we move past these homecoming king valuations when determining the most worthwhile contributors to a professional club?

I don’t know if it’s the poor use of poor to begin with counting statistics like RBIs that gets to me the most, or if it’s my sneaking suspicion that blond hair and good looks are what compound the over-rating of Khalil Greene.

I’m not saying he should be actively shopped this winter. That usually gives away the leverage necessary to make a good trade. But if there is / was a similar package to that of Nick Swisher, and I don’t think that’s out of the realm of possibilities, I think you have to take it. No question.

Who would replace him, you ask?

Granted, there isn’t anyone in the farm who is ready for the job, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t good options (formerly) out there. When only the best defensive shortstop this side of Ozzie Smith was available for mere pennies on the dollar, that answers that question.

Adam Everett at $2.8 million is the true definition of a moneyball signing, even when one considers the .299 career OBP (coincidently higher than the 2007 numbers posted by a certain Padres shortstop). Everett was undervalued in the market this year, and the Padres should have jumped on him.

This would leave an overhyped Greene available for trade, while gaping holes begging for young talent exist in center, or a corner outfield spot (Giles to left? Anyone? Not saying he needs it at this point, but it’s something worth planning for).

Back to the MVP

VORP, or Value Over Replacement Player is a nice stat for our use here. It incorporates all aspects of run scoring for a hitter, can be used for pitchers to compare with hitters, and adjusts for the importance and difficulty of each position on defense. It does not adjust for defensive ability however, so I would give a slight additional edge to Gonzalez, Greene, and Cameron.

What’s a blogger / former Padres disappointment to do at this point? Do I really need to explain the above? Greene is a good player no doubt, but not what he is made out to be.

Lets just convince our girlfriends / wives that Padres players other than Khalil Greene are also good looking. I have a personal hankering for Kouz, but that’s me.

Melvin Update (1/25): I can’t believe I forgot to mention Khalil’s defense in the original article. The thought was brewing in my head during the writing process, but never got out. Perhaps the endless binges of Moonshine and balut have finally caught up to me.

Here are Greeney’s (Greeny?) OOZ and RZR stats courtesy of the Hardball Times.

Compare these numbers to Adam Everett (linked above), keeping in mind Everett was hurt in 2007. RZR stands for revised zone rating, or the percentage of balls hit into Green’s zone on which he made the play. OOZ stands for out of zone, or the balls hit outside his zone he turned into an out.

They show Greene’s 2004-2006 was good, but not great. Only in 2007 did his play catch up to his reputation.

For reasons why I think this phenomenon exists, check out my article Tighter, I Can’t See His Pores!

A couple months ago, Towers was hoping to lock up Khalil:

“He’s one of our better players, and we’d like him to be here for some time,” General Manager Kevin Towers said yesterday.

Now…

“A long-term contract with Khalil at this time is probably doubtful,” said Towers. “I don’t know, it might not be able to get done.”

Padres, Greene fail to reach deal, eye arbitration

Towers went on to say that the problem might not be monetary but rather familial. The Greene family is back on the East Coast and health concerns might draw Khalil’s interest over there.

As we went over a couple months ago, parting ways with Khalil might be in the best interest of the club. While a solid fielder and a great power threat (coming from his position), Khalil’s inability to get on-base negates a lot. If we could dangle him out there in the effort to grab a replacement shortstop/replacement power bat (or both), we might as well. Now that the timer’s seemingly been set.

Isn’t Pittsburgh on the East Coast? Bay and Jack Wilson would do. And if the Pirates insist, they can throw in Ian Snell as well.

Ray update: The Rockies have locked up their shortstop.

Personally, I think they did this to make us look bad. Why else would they extend Tulowitzki before finding out if he can hit at sea level or not?

Doctoring The Numbers (Baseball Prospectus)

Rany Jazayerli points out Khalil Greene’s all time record setting 74 extra base hits coupled with a .291 on base percentage.

Blue Jays, Royals, Indians Bring It Back (MLB.com)

(old-ish news) I’ve long held the belief that the longer a team wears a uniform, the better it gets. These franchises join the Milwaukee Brewers returning to a classic look for a weekly retro home game. The Chargers half-assed it in their recent jersey revamp (though in my opinion, if they were to create a new design altogether I like what they did) .

The Padres’ brown color scheme is classic, fits the mascot, and most importantly, popular among fans. I think the Padres would do well to follow suit. I’ll take 1974-1977 or 1980-1984, thanks.

Padres Uniform Archive (Dressed To The Nines / Baseball Hall Of Fame)

Speaking of uniforms, if you haven’t seen the archives for perusal at the Baseball Hall Of Fame website, check that ish. Here’s a bit more of our sport’s glorious past to get the browsing started.

Interview With Kevin Towers (MLB.com)

These chat transcripts are so much nicer than those articles with 90% fluff we knew about and two or three sound bites, aren’t they? Plus Towers is always so candid, interviews like these are a real pleasure.

The big news is that Towers is still interested in a left fielder to be acquired through a trade.

Towers: The one position that we still may be looking at would be a corner outfielder. This would most likely come via a trade, rather than a free agent signing. As of right now, Jeff DaVanon, Scott Hairston, Paul McAnulty, and Headley are all of our in-house candidates at the present time. That’s not to say that we might still add a corner outfielder before Spring Training starts, more than likely via trade.

The team has talent that could hove above replacement level as it is. Therefore, I think if a move is made we’d see a player capable of more than that, meaning a big time deal is a possibility.

This may happen if Headley has poor showing in left, or Kouzmanoff is part of a deal leaving space for Headley. My hope is that if we do give up a young gun or two, we receive an equal share of young, salary controlled talent in return.

Other topics of the chat transcript include an Estes update, Towers’ thoughts the front running NL contenders, and a provocative tidbit on his trading partners.

Melvin Update: Eff yes:

“We would rather have a younger, controllable player via a trade,” Towers said.

I’m not sure if it’s obvious or not, but damn I love the way this team is run.

Baseball Prospectus Drops ‘Kouzy’ On Us (Baseball Prospectus)

Creative, at best, nickname for Kouzmanoff. Not a lot else new in the article for Padre fans, short of recognition for the 15th best VORP for major league third basemen. “Kouzy” landed just short of Mark Reynolds and Troy Glaus.

In Friday’s Union-Tribune, Towers said he is hoping to lock up Khalil.

“He’s one of our better players, and we’d like him to be here for some time,” General Manager Kevin Towers said yesterday.

Towers hopes to lock up Greene with multiyear deal

He goes on to say that he hasn’t actually talked to Khalil’s agent, or even if talks are coming up, just that he wants to.

Towers’ desire to sign Khalil is understandable. A season in which he hit 27 home runs and drove in almost 100 RBI is going to look mighty fine to an arbitrator. The $2.25M Khalil made last year will probably be doubled or tripled. Looking at it that way, it makes sense to get Khalil at a price we can all be happy with and that we can all see coming.

But Khalil is a shortstop wrapped up in an enigma. On the one hand, he’s coming off a season in which he was second on the team in home runs and RBI behind Adrian Gonzalez, who already has his contract despite just finishing his second season in San Diego. For shortstops, he’s in the top 6 for HR, SLG and IsoP. Needless to say, he can mash. Coming from a position where power is a premium, and on a team where power isn’t prevalent, only makes it sweeter. Too good to be true, even.

Yeah, too good to be true.

Khalil’s RC27 of 4.69 is good for sixth amongst the seven positions the team consistently fielded. That’s behind Gonzalez at 6.41 (team leader if you don’t include Milton, who finished at 8.86), B. Giles, Kouzmanoff, Cameron, and Bard. Yes, the same Bard and Giles put up a combined SLG of .411.

I’m getting ahead of myself.

RC27 is, simply, the rate stat version of runs created. And runs created is, in essence, a calculation of how many runs a player contributed on the season. But since I’m not a fan of flat stats, we’ll just stick with RC27.

As you can see, Khalil didn’t contribute as many runs as his fellow starters did. That seems strange, considering that Khalil either touched home plate himself or drove someone else to do so 159 times all year. The Bash Brothers, B. Giles and J. Bard, did as much 110 and 88 times, respectively. How can this be?

Because Khalil’s OBP was .291. Period.

So what? Who cares? Khalil isn’t paid to walk. He’s paid to hit home runs and impress the girlies.

Everyone has to walk. The argument about whether OBP or SLG is more important is far too large to be a throw-in here, but I’ll just say that everyone has to walk like everyone has to hit for some power. If your SLG is under .400, sit down, and if your OBP is under .300, sit down.

To put things in perspective, Khalil’s RC27 of 4.69 was good for 130th in the league. The five players in front of him were David DeJesus, Mark Teahen, Jose Bautista, Gary Matthews Jr and Jason Bartlett. The highest SLG in that group was Matthew’s .419. Both DeJesus and Bartlett failed to break .400, putting up marks of .372 and .361, respectively. Khalil’s SLG is almost 100 points higher than two of the three, and yet his inability to get on-base puts him behind them

It’s not that Khalil is a bad player. He hits well on the road (wink wink other general managers) and plays solid, although not great, defense. It’s just that he’s overrated. His 27 home runs blind people to the fact that he’s just not that productive because of his inability to get on base. And this is the reason Towers should look into moving Khalil now.

What’s with the zooming?

I mean, I know what the deal is. Why do they do it? Does Manny’s bulge need to cover my entire TV screen to create drama?

Before the delivery, I guess I can understand it. The determined sneer in a pitcher’s eyes before he rockets a fastball home is good TV. And MLB needs all the ratings they can get.

What about defense? Is there any storyline to be followed when Troy Tulowitzki reacts to his left and throws Pedroia out at first? Then why won’t you show me his range?

In the final game of the ALCS, Kenny Lofton was rounding third while a batted ball landed just fair. It ricocheted off a wall in foul territory toward no man’s land in shallow left. Lofton held at third, which followed with a flood of “what he should’ves” colorfully delivered from Tim McCarver.

Apparently Lofton should have continued past third base and would have scored easily. I have no idea why, because all I saw was a deadpan zoom on the privates of Manny Ramirez in left and Mike Lowell at third. Not a single replay angle saw the runner rounding third and the fielded ball at the same time. So what’s the point?

This means more than runners advancing. One of the most important aspects of judging defensive abilities is the beginning context of a play. Where is the fielder positioned? How quickly does he react? Does he take an efficient path to the ball? How is his footwork? How far does he go to make the play?

Very few of these questions can be answered by watching a game the way it is broadcast. I think this is the main reason Khalil Greene is overrated. His sports center dives are incredible to watch, but they don’t give a complete picture.

Thoughts? Please let us know in the comments.