PECOTA’S Standings (Friar Forecast)

Mr. Logan over at Friar Forecast has a nice write-up on the 2009 predictions and they’re actually not that bad. At least, coming off a season during which the Padres won only 63 games, 74 doesn’t sound so bad. Although, PECOTA isn’t quite an exact science; for 2008, it had the Padres winning 83 games. Maybe we’ll win 94 this year? Probably not, although I feel like the Padres are a couple of fortuitous breaks from contention. One such break would be the return of this man.

Prior is ready to give it one more shot; ‘I don’t want to give up,’ he says (San Diego Union-Tribune)

“Cautiously optimistic.” Those are actually Mark Prior’s words, when discussing his 2009. “If he’s healthy, and all the reports thus far are encouraging, Prior is my ace in the hole.” Those are Kevin Towers’ words, and the optimist in me prefers what Towers has to say. If Prior can at least stay on the mound for 20-some starts and hold Baek back from the third spot in the rotation, the team’s chances of success jump up.

Jake Peavy breaks his silence (Gaslamp Ball)

jbox threw up Peavy’s comments on 1090 yesterday, and they’re rather refreshing after the war Peavy and the front office waged on each other this off-season. Especially refreshing is Peavy’s denial that he ever sang “Go Cubs Go.” Ah, much better. Here’s your knife back, Jake. Sorry for the confusion.

Padres by Position (San Diego Union-Tribune)

Starting with Adrian, Blanks, and first base, Bill Center has been documenting the Padres, position-by-position (hey!). While the articles are a bit sparse, Center does a good job of covering the Padres from top to bottom. He even manages to sneak in a couple juicy nuggets, like how the Padres are looking at moving third baseman Logan Forsythe to catcher.

Best outfield arms of 2008 (The Hardball Times)

Remember when I said Brian Giles was one of the best defensive outfielders in baseball, and that pushed him past Adrian as the MVPadre for 08? Well, about that- The Hardball Times has recently published numbers on outfield arms and Giles’ is unsurprisingly atrocious. He can still run them down, and he’s still worth 1.1 more wins than Adrian, so I stand by my MVPadre pick, but, uh, yeah.

Friar Follies (Baseball Prospectus)

Alliteration aside (will we ever run out of these headlines?) Joe Sheehan tries his hand again at Padres analysis and talks a bit less crazy this time. He says Hollywood Jim is kaput in center, while Baldelli or Crisp make the most sense in trade scenarios. (non-subscribers get partial text)

The Padres aren’t likely to close the gap on the Diamondbacks and Dodgers under any circumstances. They’re not a good offensive team, and they need time to integrate their young position players. The team’s strength the last few years, though, has been the way it fits into the park, with fly-ball pitchers, deep fences and Mike Cameron. Now, in a post-Cameron world, they’re about to find out just how much of what they thought was pitching was actually defense.

Tom Krasovic doesn’t see the Padres trading for Crisp.

For one, Crisp is out of the lineup because of an injury. Two, Epstein hasn’t put him on the trade block. Three, the Padres believe Epstein would ask for advanced prospects such as Matt Antonelli or Chase Headley. “We’re not going to move those guys,” Towers said.

Prior, Giles, and Hensley Recoveries On-Time (Union Tribune)

Tom Krasovic shares updates on our favorite sickly players, and things look good. Don’t they always during spring training? I’d be a bit worried if they were “in the best shape of their lives”.

The surgeon’s work is enabling Prior to throw with proper form, to repeat the same release point that he had before injuries led to compensation issues and degraded his silky delivery.

He said he is able to get the extension and angle needed to hit the low-outside portion of the strike zone, or just wide of it. Last spring training, Prior said, he wasn’t able to smoothly get that done. “I’d come around the ball,” he said, tilting his right hand inward.

Chase Headley’s Approach to Hitting (Baseball America)

“I think the strikeout is one of the most overrated stats in baseball,” Headley said. “It’s an out just like anything else. You can pretty much tell how I’m hitting by the counts. If somebody is on base, I’m trying to do some damage. But if there’s nobody on base, I like to see some pitches.”

Chase you’re preaching to the choir re: strikeouts. Power hitters will strikeout, it comes with the territory. They make up for it by hitting the crap out of the ball when they do connect, and they make fewer outs of other varieties by walking more.

Not sure I’m happy to hear he’s changing his approach with runners on though. Hey Chase, you can still score if you’re on base! Takes what theys gives ya!

Young Guns: The NL West (Baseball Analysts)

It never hurts to soak up another informed opinion on future prospects. Mark Hulet expresses his take on our future stars, plus those we’ll see around the division. One aspect of Chase Headley’s game I haven’t seen mentioned before is his considerable BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play). This can indicate a reliance on luck in a players’ batting average.

One huge caution about Headley’s high average in 2007 is that his BABIP was an astronomical .400. The power increase is probably for real – the high average is not.

Definitely an aspect of Chase’s game to keep in mind.

Statheads in the Front Office (Friar Forecast)

Myron takes a look at franchise executives dedicated to statistical analysis, similar to Chris Long‘s position with the Padres.

That’s it for this issue of Sacrificial Links, fancy graphic edition. 13 short days until the big game. Keep your pants on! Or not, either way really. Just put them back on by March 31st.

Beyond The Box Score interview with Paul Depodesta

Paul comes across as such a smart guy. I wish he would have answered this question:

QUESTION: Not too long ago the new Pirates’ general manager Neal Huntington did a Q&A session with MLB.com and answered a question about the metrics they use to judge players, I’d like to pose that same question to you: what are some of the statistics you to evaluate potential targets?

Depo responds by saying he can’t divulge the proprietary methods the team uses. Statheads probably already knew that, but couldn’t Paul just say “VORP” so we feel smarter?

I just logged on to Gaslamp Ball to find the link to their Depodesta interview, which is fantastic by the way, and saw they also linked to this story. I take one day off work, and think I’ll be getting ahead of things but noooo.

The only solution here is to take more time off work.

Alex Rodriguez endorses Mike Cameron in the Bronx (New York Times)

The two were teammates on the 2000 Mariners squad. The bulk of the article is of the rare Yankees speculation variety, so you may want to check it out before the coverage is bumped for the most recent Devil Rays rumor.

Analysis of Mark Prior’s Mechanics (Hardball Times)

I’m still disappointed (and encouraged) about Arizona’s hiring of Carlos Gomez. Before being snagged by the evil Snakes, Gomez broke down the delivery of Mark Prior (among others) for the Hardball Times. Short version: Prior needs to be more aggressive.

Worst Hall of Fame Arguments of 2008 (Vegas Watch)

Link stolen from Fire Joe Morgan. Who can’t resist a good fun making of baseball writers ever now and again?

P.S. This post is by no means an attempt to bite Ducksnorts’ Friday Links. Sacrificial Links are crazy enough to come out any day of the week, this is just a coincidence. This will probably happen on one out of every seven Sacrificial Link posts.

If you’re enough of a fan to read this blog you’ve heard the news: the Padres signed Mark Prior for ~$1 million guaranteed.

My take? It’s a million bucks! We’re talking less than Geoff Blum’s 2004 salary here, worst case scenario. Best case scenario is he’s available, and we’ll pay a bit more. That works too.

Lining up a few low risk, high reward guys like Prior and Wolf improve your chances of striking it rich. The downside is that shortsighted “fans” make “cheap” accusations. Nothing new there, yet by avoiding the free agent market the Padres have stayed consistent contenders since the Petco era began. (edit: current Padres resigned don’t count, obviously)

There are a ton of opinions thrown around about high profile guys like Mark Prior. If you’re like me, you tend to ignore a lot of them. Most high profiled opinions are thrown out to attract attention, not necessarily to provide analysis. It seems their weight is inversely proportional to the noise they create.

So if you’re looking for some depth into Prior’s career, you’re not alone. I’ll provide some a bit of background for your perusal.

Picture © Scott Ableman

Draft

Though the touted best player available in the 2001 draft, the Twins made the controversial selection of Joe Mauer as the first pick overall, likely due to Prior’s signability concerns. Prior was selected second by the Cubs, a move to which the irony of history is not lost.

Injuries And Crap

Mark Prior’s nine career trips to disabled list began July of his flagship 2003 season, after a collision with Marcus Giles of the Braves. He missed only three starts, and blew away hitters that year to the tune we’ve all heard a few more times than necessary. Suffice it to say he threw a fantastic year.

Read the rest of this entry »

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Padres have signed Randy Wolf to a one-year contract.

Wolf, the star of TV’s “Airwolf,” has spent the better part of his career being hurt, having Tommy John surgery in July of 2005. Last season, with the Dodgers, he got hot in May (sounds like a Padre!), posting an ERA of 1.48, but ended his season early after having shoulder surgery in July. Obviously, there’s something about the seventh month of the year that makes Wolf severely hurt himself so I think that the team should get Stauffer/Germano/whomever ready to go around the All-Star break.

He doesn’t have any splits at Petco to really speak of, having only pitched five innings in his sole start there, although he did give up five earned runs. His numbers at Qualcomm are better, with an ERA of 3.42 in 26.1 innings. Although I suppose that’s a dumb point.

Wolf will be slotted in the rotation behind reigning Cy Young award winner Jake Peavy, Young, and Maddux. If he can stay healthy, Wolf will help make this team’s already formidable starting rotation even tougher, especially since Petco is a godsend for pitchers. And Wolf might be joined there by Mark Prior or Matt Clement. Personally, I’d like to see the team get Prior, as I get a real Chris Carpenter feeling from him. Bring him in, get two or three good-to-great seasons out of him, just don’t resign him before he blows his arm out again.

Melvin Update: Incentive Laden? Shaaaa buddy! $4 million base, $9 million if he meets the incentives.  It doesn’t get much better. A 102 career ERA+ back of the rotation starter, with the injury risk minimized by the contract works for me.

Despite the injury, Wolf was one of the most hotly pursued free agents on the market this offseason.

Umm, errr….. Que?