Photo by Dirk Hansen

Padre blogger and prospect Matt Antonelli has earned himself a promotion, at least in the blogging world for now. He’ll now be answering questions at Shawn Anderson’s The Hall of Very Good. I wish I had thought of asking Matt before Shawn did.

Antonelli’s interaction with fans and online media has developed into a special relationship. In less than a year, he’s set himself apart from the other names in the organization depth chart and become a player I feel connected to, and root for.

It’s not just simply having accounts on Twitter, Facebook , or writing a blog. It’s about firing that publicist, pulling back the curtain, posting funny videos or photos, and sharing actual stories about who you really are. Don’t hide behind a few cliches in an article from a beat reporter, they’ll only tell their story, not yours. Put your real self out there. Be genuine.

I hope more young players learn from Matt’s example. I doubt it would earn him a call-up on its own, but if David Eckstein still has a starting job then personality has got to count for something.

Antonelli’s Blog

Why didn’t someone alert me? I demand answers!

The Padres prospect second baseman, and former first round selection (17th overall) in 2006 has been sharing stories and thoughts with all of the Internet except me.

It’s neat that Matt does the writing thing at Blogspot rather than MLB.com, similar to the format of Paul DePodesta’s work. Those MLB blogs are a cool way to interact with fans, but they feel like MLB’s PR division has sifted out any fun or interesting details.

Take Matt’s thought on the crowd environment at games:

I wished the atmosphere at a baseball game could somehow resemble that of basketball game. It would add an element to the game that is only really present in post season play. I’d love to try and take a page out of Garnett’s book, the way he slams his head into the pad underneath the basket a few seconds before tip off, or skips to the side of the court and yells at the fans to get them to stand up and get excited. I think If I tried something like that before the first pitch of our games someone would call the police and then a shrink.

If Matt tried a stunt like that at PETCO, the first response I would expect is a polite tap on Antonelli’s shoulder and request to “keep the noise level down. Also, no standing!”

The other response might be loud cheers right away that die down by the time the pitch is delivered.

This place is a goldmine of awesome, home movies and photos. Here’s video of Antonelli, Headley, someone I think is Drew Macias, and Callix “gangsta cowboy” Crabbe clowning around a Tuscon rodeo in full cowboy getup.

Antonelli: Someone back there just asked me if I was in the rodeo

Camera Guy: That’s just ‘caus you’re so damn good baby, so are so [fucking] money and you don’t even know it

Antonelli: Oh, I do know it

Also, bribing little kids.

I don’t mean to step on Melvin’s toes, but I feel the need to address Sandy’s dismissal myself.

As Mel documented, John Moores is no longer the owner of the San Diego Padres and, in a matter of time, Sandy Alderson will no longer be the team’s CEO. Despite my earlier requests that Sandy be kept on board, I welcome this changing of the guard with open arms.

Plain and simply, my patience has run out.

I have a handful of complaints, leaving out the 99 loses and bleak outlook for 09, that include Alderson’s work as an ambassador to the Padres community and the draft.

I should start by saying that Alderson’s reaching out to the local radio station was a noble effort. Unfortunately, Alderson often came off as prickly and condescending, torpedoing that noble effort. It seemed to create a divide between the people selling the tickets and the people buying the tickets and, coincidentally or not, the team may sell less than two million tickets in 09, a fifteen year low.

And, of course, there is Trevor Hoffman.

There are no heroes or villains in the story of the end of Hoffman’s Padre career. From everything that we know, which admittedly could be nothing, all parties did their part to severe the relationship. Except the fans, who were left playing the role of the children of a bitter divorce, after a year in which the team dropped 99 games, and were tormented with talks of trading the team ace.

If nothing else, this offseason has been exhausting.

Then there’s the draft.

This is likely (probably) cherry-picking, but it’s also legitimate. As we’ve discussed already, the system is lacking in impact talent in the higher levels, with Kyle Blanks and (hopefully) Matt Antonelli looking like the only potential big league starters scheduled for Portland this year. There is more talent the further down you get, especially when you go way down, but they’re years away from contributing.

When you look at the 2008 team, the only homegrown player who came up in the Alderson era and really contributed was Chase Headley. And while Nick Hundley, Paul McAnulty, and Will Venable did chip in, Headley is the only true everyday player generated by this system. And outside the aforementioned Blanks and Antonelli, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot coming soon.

This takes us back to patience. Alderson has had four years with our San Diego Padres and the seeds he’s helped plant (and the “helped” part is an important distinction) are still years away from bearing fruit. That would seem to mean that this team still has a couple of years left throwing dinner parties during its home remodeling.

At some point, you have to ask when enough is going to enough. And it would seem to be now.

R. EDIT: It’s been brought to my attention that Blanks was drafted in 04, before Alderson came onboard. Make of that what you will.

Padres bolster infield with Eckstein

The internet’s least favorite player is officially a San Diego Padre.

It appears that David Eckstein will become the Padres fourth Opening Day second baseman since the departure of Mark Loretta, following in the depressing footsteps of Josh Barfield, Marcus Giles, and Tad Iguchi.

Eckstein’s spent the better part of the past eight seasons as a shortstop, although he moved to second after being acquired by Moorad’s old team in August. Eckstein’s defense at short has been steadily deteriorating and, according to Tangotiger’s fan scouting reports, his arm strength has been getting worse, bottoming out at 0 this year. Luckily for us, second base is closer to first than shortstop.

Offensively, Eckstein hasn’t done much. He posted a career high wOBA of .335 with the Cardinals in 2005. Never in his career has he posted a slugging percentage over .400 but he’s had some good on-base percentages. Over the past three seasons, his OBP has been .350, which is something the team hasn’t gotten from the middle infield since 2004.

For 2009, the projections for Eckstein look like:

Not good, but that OBP might be a silver lining. And he’ll be back making under $1 million, so we’ve got that going for us.

Something else interesting to come out of this is the appearance of solidity Eckstein gives in the 4 hole. Towers has spent the past couple of months collecting second baseman. Eckstein is the latest name on a list that includes Luis Rodriguez, Travis Denker, Chris Burke, Edgar Gonzalez, and Matt Antonelli. With Eckstein taking over at second, Rodriguez would seem to be the team’s shortstop going into the new season, and Antonelli will likely start the year in Portland. From there, Burke and Gonzalez are utility guys who can play all over the infield and in the outfield, with Burke owning 500 innings experience in centerfield. This leaves Denker, who projects to be a monster, left needing a big Spring Training.

Headline written by R. Lankford during the course of an AIM conversation. Headline stolen by M. Nieves during the course of that same conversation.

Now that’s settled, a pair of recent articles on the Fangraphs site are relevant to Padres fans’ interest, with an added bonus that you probably haven’t seen this stuff on mlbtraderumors already.

The first is a quick overview of the Padres farm system’s performance this year. Marc Hulet names Chase Headley, Matt Buschmann, Matt Antonelli, Cole Figueroa, and Eric Sogard as the graduate, the riser, the tumbler, the 2008 draft pick, and the sleeper, respectively. I’ve heard (and written) about the success of others in the system, but I haven’t seen much coverage of some of these guys. That’s a good, albeit anecdotal demonstration of the organizational depth we enjoy these days, especially in the lower levels.

Next, Dave Cameron checks in on the results of four major prospects for star player trades from the previous offseason. Go ahead, guess how they’ve turned out. Ready to be wrong? Here’s Dave:

Four big trades of all-star caliber players, and in every single case, the rebuilding team either held steady or got significantly better while the contender didn’t improve at all, and in some cases, got a lot worse.

Poor results for the team acquiring the star don’t necessarily mean there is a correlation between trading for stars and playing worse the next year. But to paraphrase Cameron, it pretty well confirms what some of us have been saying: one player cannot carry a team.

On the Padres side, the team rarely commits to long term deals of this magnitude. The organization knows how special Jake is, and uses what payroll flexibility it does have to reward and build around its home grown star.

-Melly Mel Nieves (12/02/07)

My, how the times have changed.

It used to be that we had to wait till the World Series ended for the hot stove to really heat up, but the Padres have never been ones to play by the rules. I’m not going to bore you by going over what you know already, which is that Jake Peavy is on the block just one year after the team locked him up long term.

There could be any number of reasons as to why Jake is on his way out, whether it’s his penchant for running his mouth or just simply reloading on talent. What is important, though, is what we could get for him. And to the best way to get an idea of what’s going to happen is to look at what already has.

A selection of the biggest trades over the past couple of years, most of which happen to center around pitching, includes deals for CC Sabathia, Johan Santana, Erik Bedard and Dan Haren. What could these trades tell us about an upcoming Jake deal? Let’s find out!

Below are those tradees and the players they brought in return, with their organizational and league-wide prospect rankings according to Baseball America, and their three year era.

Sabathia

E.R.A.: 3.03

Trade for: Matt LaPorta (1 in organization, 23 in league), Michael Brantley, Rob Bryson and Zach Johnson

Santana

E.R.A.: 2.87

Trade for: Delois Guerra (2, 35), Carlos Gomez (3, 52) and Phil Humber (7, -)

Bedard

E.R.A.: 3.51

Traded for: Chris Tillman (3, 67), Adam Jones, Tony Butler, Kameron Mickolio and George Sherrill

[NOTE: Adam Jones was no longer considered a prospect. In 2007, he ranked first in the Mariners organization and 28th in the league]

Haren

E.R.A. 3.33

Traded for: Carlos Gonzalez (1,22), Brett Anderson (3, 36), Aaron Cunningham (7, -), Chris Carter (8, -), Dana Eveland and Greg Smith

Peavy

E.R.A.: 3.15

Traded for: T.B.A.

I’ve left out the trades for Dontrelle Willis and Josh Beckett, as Willis was a throw-in with Miguel Cabrera and Boston took Mike Lowell with Beckett. Of course, if Khalil gets tossed in with Jake, as has been rumored, we might have to check those out as well.

Looking at these trades, every team got one of the trading partner’s two best prospects, with all but the Brewers getting two of the top three in return. The Athletics really went above and beyond, taking half of Arizona’s top eight. When you consider that all four pitchers either required a contract immediately after joining their new teams, or will file for free agency in the case of CC Sabathia, the Padres hold a very advantageous hand controlling Jake Peavy for years. Peavy has a reasonable contract through 2013, which means the Padres have no immediate need to trade him.

So who could be our Arizona?

The team who jumped to the front of the pack, at least according to the internet, is Atlanta. This is probably because it’s so predictable: they’re in the south near Jake’s hometown and they’ve sucked lately. Any talks with the Braves, it would seem, would have to start with Jordan Schafer (ranked 25th in the league) or Jason Heyward (28th).

Schafer, a five-tool, left-handed centerfielder, has been on the national radar since he was 13. This season, at age 22, he put up a line of .377/.470/.847, most of which came after he returned from a 50 game suspension for H.G.H.

Heyward is three years younger and has likely leapfrogged Schafer on the Braves’ list. While not the fielder Schafer is, Heyward has tremendous power potential and a good eye. Coming out of high school, one of his drawbacks was that he might be too patient. If that isn’t the kind of “problem” the Padres are looking for, I don’t know what is. Hayward is further away than Schafer is, but he might just be worth the wait.

And that’s just the beginning. The Padres are going to want a pitcher in return and the Braves have a good prospect in Tommy Hanson, as well as Jair Jurrjens, who performed to a ERA+ tune of 112 in Atlanta this year at the age of 22.

Recent talk has thrown out the names Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson. Escobar, who turns 26 in a couple of weeks, is a shortstop coming into his third season. In 800+ at-bats, he’s got a line of .373/.420/.793. Last season, his slugging percentage was .401, a mark sure to dip in Petco. But he also brings a slick glove and an excitement factor that was drastically lacking this past season. He would likely replace one of the more popular Padres in Greene, but he could become one in his own right.

Johnson will be 27 next season and is coming into his fourth season at second base. In 1358 at-bats, his line is .356/.440/.796. But with the acquisition of Travis Denker, along with last season’s number two prospect Matt Antonelli, Johnson is incredibly unnecessary. I’d like to think he’s not really involved.

Escobar, Hanson, Heyward, Johnson, Jurrjens, Schafer. Ideally, the Padres could get two of this group, and that’s before discussing the kind of deals St. Louis and the Dodgers (the Dodgers?!) could put together.

Unlike Melvin, I kind of like drama. Spice of life kind of thing. And for me, this season has been filled with intrigue. It hasn’t been fun, but there’s been a lot to talk about. For instance:

Genuine draft: The Padres will have the third pick in next year’s draft, which will probably be too late to grab Strasburg, but still very high. High enough to grab a potential star. Of course, it’s potential to grab a star anywhere in the 175 rounds that are in the draft, but the higher the better.

Gimme the loot: One of the benefits of playing terrible in a season that you didn’t plan on being terrible is a glut of moveable parts. This summer, the Padres moved Tony Clark, Randy Wolf, and Greg Maddux. What will actually become of the minor league pitchers and players to be named later that we acquired for these players is still to be seen, but if just one of them becomes a key part to a future Padres club, it’s a win.

If it’s broke, fix it: For five years now, the Padres have been sending out a makeshift team. They have, essentially, been rebuilding years, but competitive rebuilding years. And this was the season when the bottom fell out. The strong pitching staff that has carried this team since it started playing in ridiculous Petco Park faltered, with names like Baek and Banks seeing significant playing time. Adding to the mess was regressions, disappointments, and injuries that depleted the team on the field.

With the introduction of Chase Headley, however, the Padres have begun to turn over a new leaf. He was soon followed by other top prospects Wade LeBlanc, Will Venable, and Matt Antonelli. It’s only a matter of time the clubhouse is filled with players that came up, and have been neutered, in the system. Not more forcing square players in the round holes.

Jody Gerut: He’s pretty good.

Hey, it’s baseball!: It still is, technically.

I have.

Now, granted, I don’t actually live in San Diego, so watching isn’t an option for me. But I’ve stopped following the games as closely and the Padre I’m most likely to talk about is Stephen Strasburg (fingers crossed). But that could change.

Accelerating their youth movement, the Padres Monday will install prospect Matt Antonelli as their regular second baseman and promote pitcher Wade LeBlanc into a rotation that will expand to six starters.

“I’m excited to see these young guys,” General Manager Kevin Towers said.

Padres call up cavalry for stretch

Me too, Kev. Me too.

While he came into the season ranked second in the organization by Baseball America, Antonelli’s had a rough year, posting an O.P.S. of just .641 in Triple-A. However, his walk rate has been good and his B.A.B.I.P. has been incredibly low. In August, he posted an O.P.S. of .864, which is more than 200 points higher than his season mark.

While anything’s possible, the Padres aren’t making the playoffs. And it will probably be a chore trying to follow them the rest of the way out, at least as much as it has been for the rest of the season. But with the Padres taking a look to the future, LeBlanc and Antonelli will be joining Will Venable, Chase Headley, and Nick Hundley in San Diego, there’s still room for excitement.

Experience it, please.

John Sickels from Minor League Ball updates his Padres top 20 prospects list with performance so far this year, and mostly has good things to say.  His thoughts on the Antonelli conundrum:

Matt Antonelli, 2B, Grade B+
.204/.329/.297 for Triple-A Portland. One of the biggest Whiskey Tango Foxtrot prospects this year. Drawing lots of walks, controlling the zone well, but no power and the base hits aren’t falling. Finally got his average over the Mendoza line this month. I have no clue what to expect in the future.

To me that’s good news.  It isn’t, “well he sucks now and isn’t as good as we thought he was” which I was kind of expecting.  Sickels actually had a similar opinion on Wade LeBlanc, saying the standard numbers don’t represent his performance.

Reminds me of the Bloodhound Gang jam “Foxtrot Unicorn Charlie Kilo”.  Very clever these guys.

You probably already knew this, but Geoff at Ducksnorts is doing essentially the same thing, but better.

Stone cold sober as a matter of fact.

Not back, back.  But back for long enough to show us what they’re capable of, scoring 7 runs on 14 hits against the Marlins Saturday night.  And demonstrate the crazy unpredictable nature of baseball coming from the team that seemed so far out of sync at the plate thus far in the year.

On the ongoing slow players needlessly giving themselves up on the bases watch, Paul McAnulty tried tagging from second on a pop fly to Jorge Cantu.  You may be concerned to learn that Cantu was playing third base at the time, yes, that third base.  He caught a foul ball near the infield wall and flipped to Hanley Ramirez covering.  The tag was closer than you’d think, but with two outs you have to know value of going from second to third is minimal.  Someone should be told that running just isn’t McAnulty’s game, though I never imagined it would need to be said.

How to Score a Souvenir Baseball at Petco (The Baseball Collector)

This dude’s hobby is going to ballparks and taking as many souvenir baseballs from kids as he can.  At least something like that.  He carries more than 3,000 balls in his collection, employs a glove rigged with a string and pen to snag otherwise unattainable balls out of reach, brings a hat from each team to games and switches between them, and prepares a cheat sheet with names of players so he can call them by name, pictures, and other notes.

The story linked above (the guy’s name is Zack Hample) details his 2006 visit to Petco Park, plus his catch off a home run by none other than Barrold Rutherford Bonds (I made up the middle name).  There’s a Bruce Bochy autographed lineup card and a solid group of Petco Park photographias.  One note from the lineup card: Boch needs to work on his calligraphy.

Padres Playoff Odds (Baseball Prospectus)

Not pretty.  The worst of the worst, in fact:

2.1%: San Diego
2.9%: Pittsburgh
4.7%: Kansas City
5.4%: Washington
5.5%: San Francisco

I refuse to believe ours is that bad of a team.  The problem is, like what Myron at Friar Forecast has been saying: Even if they get back to their expected performance, at this point they’re starting behind the curve.  We’ll need an equally big run above what we expected, just to catch up.  If I’m Kevin Towers, I’d keep an ear out from here until the deadline for interest in Wolf or Giles in exchange for a building block.  It’s about that time.

PECOTA on Padres (and other) Prospects (Baseball Prospectus)

Back to more fun topics of discussion, Nate Silver applies his PECOTA projection system to determine the “upside” score of minor league prospects.  Upside is defined by Silver as “the degree and probability of above-average performance while the player is under the control of his parent club“.  In other words, the score rewards good expectations without considering the bad ones, and only during a player’s cheap years (usually until age 28).

Silver’s most recent article on second basemen prospects highlights Padre property Matt Antonelli.  He scores an upside of 70.1.  This beats the next closest on the list of of Damon Sublett from the Yanks at 69.4.  The highest prospect, for comparison, is the White Sox’ Alexei Ramirez with a score of 111.2, three rankings above our boy Matt.

Silver brings up what he calls “empty walks” when mentioning Antonelli.  He suggests Antonelli’s walks may not be sustainable by his bat when pitchers decimate the zone with strikes.  Craig Stansberry also gets a mention as a “very good prospect” with a score of 60.  Craig’s age of 26 limits his potential as a prospect.

In an older writeup of the PECOTA upside for first basemen, Padre prospect Kyle Blanks gets his due as the third best in the majors at 53.9.  Silver warns of PECOTA’s propensity to penalize weight in its calculation, a fault the system no doubt shares with its real life scouting counterparts.

That’s it for now.  Ask yourself if you’re either depressed or glad to read a Padres blog with Elton John references.  It has to be one or the other.