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“Moneyball” Will Never Win In October

October 31st, 2007 by Melvin Nieves

Except this guy:

.417 .459 OBP / .725 Slugging

That’s Kevin Youkilis’ career in the post season. Those moneyball detractors (and by that, I mean objectivity detractors) who haven’t read the book (and by that, I mean most of them) should know that Billy Beane was obsessed with Youkilis.

“Youkilis?” says Billy, as if he’s only just heard of the guy and very nearly forgot his name. “Just a fat kid in Double-A. Look at your reports. He’s a ‘no’ for you. He’s a ‘maybe’ for me. From our standpoint, he’s just a guy we like because he gets on base”

-Moneyball

Classic. Now trust me, I’m not the kind of guy who touts the merits of a handful of postseason PAs. But by the transitive property or something, that also means I’m not the guy who goes batty anytime a bad series happens in the small sample size shitshow of the post season.

Fun fact: Alex Rodriguez’s postseason line is .279 / .361 / .483.

I think it’s human nature to to look for evidence that agrees with your conclusion instead of creating a conclusion based on evidence. In our case, people don’t want to believe those who think differently can change the face of our past time.

Instead, they pull a tighter grip around a belief set slowly let loose by those around them. It’s difficult to see this in ourselves because it’s who we are, but it’s there.

edit: Thanks to commenter Joe Morgan my editor will be fired. .459 OBP?! Nutso!

Posted in gripes, postseason, statistics | 2 Comments »

Steve Spurrier knows what’s up.

October 16th, 2007 by Ray Lankford

The Rockies destroyed Arizona, just like they destroyed Philadelphia. Just like they’ll probably destroy Cleveland (or Boston, I suppose). And, really, the Diamondbacks have no one to blame but themselves.

Before I get to that, Byrnes really shit the bed, didn’t he? It was only appropriate that he would come up as the tying run with two outs in the bottom of ninth in game four, and it’s poetic that he would ground out to short on a check swing. He didn’t even get a full swing in.

But that situation should never have happened because the Colorado Rockies should never have made the playoffs. Arizona had them against the ropes at the end of the season and they let them slide, as Melvin put in the second string and let the Rockies force their way into a one-game playoff with OUR San Diego Padres. The rest, of course, is history. And since those who cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it, Black and co. need to learn one important lesson:

Always go for the kill.

Compassion is for the weak. If it’s April and Matt Holliday is up with a bum leg, put a fastball right on his kneecap. You’ll feel real stupid if you don’t and he bashes another 25 home runs next September.

Congratulations to the Rockies, though. That was a dismantling.

Posted in postseason | No Comments »