During last week’s chat with XX (which we covered in part here), Jed Hoyer said that payroll will start with a four, meaning we’ve got a range of $40 to $49 million*. This means that Hoyer, and Jeff Moorad depending on when he’ll start meddling, have some decisions to make about the Padres’ roster.

As of right now, the Padres have about $10 million locked up after Adrian Gonzalez’s option and all of the pre-arbitration eligible players. These are no-brainers, leaving decisions about the other thirteen or so roster spots on the 25.

The first three choices involve Chris Young, Jon Garland, and Yorvit Torrealba. As surely as the sun will rise tomorrow, the San Diego Padres will not be paying Chris Young $8.5 million in 2011. They might bring him back at far far less, but his option will not be picked up. As far as the other pitchers concerned, though he’s no All-Star, Garland is who he is: a pitcher who will give the team 200 innings and an above-average ERA. And with the premium this team seems to have put on chemistry, his veteran leadership and Been Thereness will likely come in handy. Six point seven five million dollars handy? I’ll say yes. Same goes with Torrealba. Three point five million dollars might be a bit much for a platoon catcher, especially given how deep this year’s free agent class is in backup catchers, but Torrealba has a rapport going with the team and the pitchers. Why change horses? This brings us to $20 million or so.

Now we come to the arbitration eligible guys. Scott Hairston, Heath Bell, and Ryan Ludwick are all on their third go, Mike Adams is on his second, and Tim Stauffer, Edward Mujica, and Anthony Junior are here for the first time. Immediately, I have to imagine that Hairston will be non-tendered. He’s just very replaceable, with Aaron Cunningham and Chris Denorfia more than capable of doing what he does. Then we have the first timers, who will probably not make much more than $3.5 million between them. Of the three, Mujica’s the most likely to play somewhere else next year, as it’s not a high price to pay for a starter (Stauffer) or a superb defender (Junior). Twenty three million. Adams will come back and I’m guessing he’ll get around $3.5 million himself, a little less than closer Heath Bell got at the same time. Let’s say twenty seven million, before Heath Bell and Ryan Ludwick are counted.

Hoyer’s already committed to bringing Ludwick back, and we’ve already commented that we agree with the decision. Even if Ludwick does end up a bust, $7.5 million, which I’m guessing he’ll get, is a fair price for someone with Ludwick’s potential. Think of it this way: who else can the Padres go get for that much money to hit twenty home runs and play above-average defense? Looking at the pickings, they look rather slim. Thirty five million.

Depending on what number the Padres payroll digits ends in, we’re looking at $5 to $15 million left in the piggy bank. And that also leaves us with a hole at second and question marks at short and center. Theoretically, the Padres could plug Everth Cabrera in at short and AJ in at center, but then we’d have to go back in time and pull Jeff Kent out of 2001 to get enough offense to be credible. And plutonium’s still expensive. They could go with Miguel Tejada at short, but he’s neither a good player anymore nor cheap. Hoyer’s going to have to get creative to fill these holes, especially if he plans on paying Heath Bell $8 million.

This is were I reassure everyone that Bell is a great player. He’s been worth two wins in three of his last four seasons, and this year he was the third most valuable closer in baseball, behind Carlos Marmol of the Cubs and Brian Wilson of the Giants. He’s the rightful successor to the Hoffy throne, but unfortunately he’s gotta go. At the price he’ll command, and that others such as Bobby Jenks and Jonathan Papelbon have commanded before him, he’ll become the highest paid player on the team next year and such a small market team can not afford to invest so much of its payroll into such a speciality position. Especially when Mike Adams can come in and do the job with little to no drop off. Of course, it doesn’t hurt that Bell might bring back something good in return.

Michael Bourn. Franklin Gutierrez. Adam LaRoche. These are just a couple names of players who have been acquired for premium relief pitching. With a pitcher of Bell’s caliber, the Padres have the opportunity to build upon their 2010 success. It just seems that Bell’s more valuable on the open market than he is in a Padres uniform.

*Duh.

I don’t mean to step on Melvin’s toes, but I feel the need to address Sandy’s dismissal myself.

As Mel documented, John Moores is no longer the owner of the San Diego Padres and, in a matter of time, Sandy Alderson will no longer be the team’s CEO. Despite my earlier requests that Sandy be kept on board, I welcome this changing of the guard with open arms.

Plain and simply, my patience has run out.

I have a handful of complaints, leaving out the 99 loses and bleak outlook for 09, that include Alderson’s work as an ambassador to the Padres community and the draft.

I should start by saying that Alderson’s reaching out to the local radio station was a noble effort. Unfortunately, Alderson often came off as prickly and condescending, torpedoing that noble effort. It seemed to create a divide between the people selling the tickets and the people buying the tickets and, coincidentally or not, the team may sell less than two million tickets in 09, a fifteen year low.

And, of course, there is Trevor Hoffman.

There are no heroes or villains in the story of the end of Hoffman’s Padre career. From everything that we know, which admittedly could be nothing, all parties did their part to severe the relationship. Except the fans, who were left playing the role of the children of a bitter divorce, after a year in which the team dropped 99 games, and were tormented with talks of trading the team ace.

If nothing else, this offseason has been exhausting.

Then there’s the draft.

This is likely (probably) cherry-picking, but it’s also legitimate. As we’ve discussed already, the system is lacking in impact talent in the higher levels, with Kyle Blanks and (hopefully) Matt Antonelli looking like the only potential big league starters scheduled for Portland this year. There is more talent the further down you get, especially when you go way down, but they’re years away from contributing.

When you look at the 2008 team, the only homegrown player who came up in the Alderson era and really contributed was Chase Headley. And while Nick Hundley, Paul McAnulty, and Will Venable did chip in, Headley is the only true everyday player generated by this system. And outside the aforementioned Blanks and Antonelli, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot coming soon.

This takes us back to patience. Alderson has had four years with our San Diego Padres and the seeds he’s helped plant (and the “helped” part is an important distinction) are still years away from bearing fruit. That would seem to mean that this team still has a couple of years left throwing dinner parties during its home remodeling.

At some point, you have to ask when enough is going to enough. And it would seem to be now.

R. EDIT: It’s been brought to my attention that Blanks was drafted in 04, before Alderson came onboard. Make of that what you will.

(This is the second installment of what I hope will be an ongoing discussion between us here at the Sac Bunt and new Padres owner to-be Jeff Moorad. Maybe one day, he’ll talk back to us.)

It’s no secret that you’re acquiring a Padres team that has seen better days. They’re coming off a 99-loss season with a repeat looking likely. Your predecessor, John Moores, is going through a very public divorce that seems to have forced the team down to a $40 million payroll, and that payroll has already made casualties of Trevor Hoffman and Khalil Greene (although anyone crying about Khalil should not be listened to), with Jake Peavy looking like he’s next in line.

And to top it all off, there’s not a whole lot to look forward to, with our minor league system getting lukewarm reviews. Keith Law recently ranked our team 19th in the league, while John Sickles and Baseball Prospectus have both assessed the Padres as having depth but without much impact talent coming up.

The current administration has already started taking steps towards making it up to the fans. Among the perks us fans can look forward to this season at the Pet are seven 2-for-1 days, which is two tickets for the price of one, and 5-for-$5 at every home game, a deal that comes with a dog, a soda, peanuts, popcorn, and a cookie. If I recall correctly, all of the 2-for-1 days last season were day games during the week, so I guess that’s nice, but I’ll definitely be looking into the 5-for-$5 deal. And I do hope that something’s done to ensure that these deals go better than last year’s dollar days.

But there is something even better that you, Mr. Moorad, can do to immediately get us fans behind you: bring back the brown.

Before I get ahead of myself, I pose this question to you: what do the Padres have in common with the Brewers, the Red Sox, and the Rays? Clearly, it’s not a playoff berth in 2008, it’s the use of dark blue as a primary color. The Brewers even use gold as a secondary color, one that looks just a bit like the Padres sand, and they’ve used it since the mid-90s. So the Padres fans not only have to deal with futility on the field and a lack of excitement in the minor leagues, but they don’t even have a look to really call their own.

Bringing back the brown, a color that this team used until the early 90s, gives this team an identity. In all of the big three sports, only the Cleveland football team wears brown. Is it because it’s ugly? No. Probably. But what’s ugly? Personally, I think the current Padres look is embarrassing in its blandness and after five years of it, I’m ready to move on. The Padres have a history of brown, having worn it for their first 20 years, and now is the time to come back to it. I’ll even make a deal with you: the mustard, which was as much a part of those jerseys as the brown, doesn’t have to come with it. Keep the sand. In fact, keep the sand jerseys. I like them, although we need to lose the bowtie script. Just bring back the brown.

The Friar was never meant to wear blue.

Hoffman’s Last Padre Save from Melvin Nieves.

I had the pleasure of attending Trevor Hoffman’s likely last appearance as a Padre, and what might be the final Trevor Time in San Diego. It was September 27th, 2008, an otherwise not too noteworthy Saturday night game against Pittsburgh.

Since the game wasn’t the last of the year, there wasn’t much mystique in the air watching these the two last place clubs. Luckily, I was armed with the knowledge that Trevor’s contract was nearly expired, and based on 160 previous case studies I knew a win and save opportunity for the Padres the next day was hardly a given.

So I grabbed (politely asked for, sorry honey) the camera my girlfriend awesomely keeps in her purse for those all important bar bathroom mirror photos with the girls, and turned it on Trevor. As it turned out, I was recording history.

The significance of the moment, coupled with my inkling that not many people really knew what could be happening, shot a bittersweet feeling through my veins.

I don’t think I’ll forget that night, though it didn’t hurt that the line for beer in the right field bleacher was excruciatingly long.

Thanks Trevor, for being the great player, and the great guy that you are. I’m gonna miss you.

note: If you’re reading this from a feed, click through to the article to see the video.

I hope (and predicted) The Padres will find a way to keep Trevor Hoffman in San Diego for the rest of his career, so lets take a look at what’s going on in the closer market that might affect this goal.

edit: Teams have stated a lack of interest in our guy, I’ll try to keep this post updated. Though most of the news can be found amid the fury of activity at mlbtraderumors.

First, the good news

• The Mets sign Francisco Rodriguez for 3 years and $37 million. K-Rod is younger and arguably better than Francisco Cordero, yet Cordero signed a deal for 4 years and $46 million last offseason. Looks like the market for closers is a bit down this year.
• The Indians ink former Cub Kerry Wood for about 2 years and $20 million, though the deal is not yet official. This probably takes the Indians, whom I expected to be Hoffman’s most likely suitor, out of the running.

Not out of the woods (no pun intended) yet

The tag of “closer” is a golden ticket in Major League Baseball. It doesn’t take much skill relative to one’s peers to earn the “closer” label, but once you do all kinds of doors open. Sucks to be JJ Putz, because the Mets effectively ripped the golden ticket from his hands in the trade from Seattle. Putz will pitch the 8th inning in Citi Field, and I hope for his sake he buys the right choclate bar when his contract is up.

Of course it also sucks for us, since the Putz trade takes one more closer off the board without eliminating a team from the market.

That leaves the Tigers, Brewers, Dodgers, Cardinals,  and Mariners could still be kicking tires on closers, with Brian Fuentes, if he’s up your alley Eric Gagne, and Trevor Hoffman available.

I’m no expert on each financial and roster situations, but here’s what I do know.

• Detroit is broke. I don’t know what they’re doing linked to free agents, let alone free agent closers, which make the least sense for a cash strapped team to sign. update 12/11: They’re not interested.
• Milwaukee has the money after their half-assed attempt to re-sign CC obviously failed. Hoffman’s 2007 performance on their turf may still be fresh in peoples minds, who knows. Also, they probably fancy themselves contenders, and I have a hard time seeing Hoffman get a 40 hour a week closer job with a contender. update 12/11: Brewers are out of it.
• Los Angeles has Jonathan Broxton, but they might offer Trevor barrels of money so they both can laugh in our faces. I wouldn’t put a free agent signing out of spite past the Dodgers. And no, I don’t know if I’m kidding here or not.
• St. Louis has the money, but are contenders. Tony La Russa seems to have a man crush on Fuentes, so lets consider this a match made in heaven and move on. update 12/11: Cardinals are indeed only about the Fuentes.
• Seattle is an interesting situation. They’re rebuilding, which doesn’t often go along with signing free agent closers. They also have the budget to do all sorts of things, usually stupid.  They may have the same reasons for going after Hoffman as we do: giving the fans anything to cheer for.

So that’s how I see it. I still think the odds of seeing Trevor in a Padre uniform again are a lot better than his 99 to 1.

Relaying an entire major league market in 500 words is quite a challenge, so If I left something out please holla in the comments.

Trevor Hoffman will not be offered arbitration by the Padres. For those of us who would like to see Hoffman return next year, this may not actually be such terrible news.

In one sense it does kind of suck. An offer of arbitration would essentially mean Trevor could come back and at least earn his salary from last season,  $7.5 million. That’s $7.5 mil at minimum, it could even go up. With payroll likely to decrease next year, that isn’t an option for Alderson and his boys.

The good news stems from the free agent compensation system the team has been wise to exploit the past few years. If the front office feels Hoffy is gone for good, they likely would offer arbitration and reap the free draft picks. Since they didn’t make the offer, one can infer that the team thinks he might accept. And that means, even in light of Trevor’s self proclaimed 99-to-1 odds of not returning, the front office thinks a change of heart is a possibility.

And I agree. Want to know why? Because in order for our favorite high leg kicking, hard rocking closer to save face from his behavior–leaving the $4 million offer on the table with no counter offer or negotiation–he’ll have to get more than that somewhere else. And that means at least $5 million, over two years, with a guaranteed closer job. Anything less then that in terms of dollars, years, or role, and you have to wonder why the dude would give up everything he had in the good old 619.

That, and a glut of younger relievers with the closer tag are available for the signing. Brian Fuentes, Francisco Rodriguez, and Kerry Wood are all free agents, and all are better options, a situation which creates a buyers’ market. To make matters worse, the Rockies and Cubs, former employers of Fuentes and Wood, are no longer likely in the market for closers.

It’s on wax. Forget the so-called fans who are already whining. Forget the sensational reporting that puts attention before accuracy, already claiming Hoffman is gone for good.

Comment’n

In news on the Sac Bunt front, we now have nested comments! I also added a fancy pants footer to the bottom of the page. I had to roll up my nerd sleeves and do some hard coding to get both features up and running, so there’s a small chance (read: fair likelyhood) that something could go wrong. If anyone would be so kind as to leave a comment or send an email if something indeed hits the fan, I promise to reward your good deed by providing insightful, humorous commentary of The San Diego Padres. For free.

This is also be a good time to encourage you to set up a an avatar for comments. They attatch to your email address and are free, easy, and work with a bunch of other sites including Ducksnorts.

Trevor Hoffman by SD Dirk

I know it isn’t going to sell newspapers or generate controversy, but I don’t think we’ll ever know exactly who is responsible if Trevor Hoffman is no longer a Padre. We have a lot of opinions thrown around as to why that may be, coupled with a heaping truckload of confirmation bias ready to jump at the chance to condemn whichever side of the argument we happen to usually approve of.

For the most vocal of fans and columnists, this generally means blaming the arrogant, ivy league nerds who run the team front office. As a matter of full disclosure, more often than not I give those arrogant, ivy league nerds the benefit of the doubt in their decisions.

Where I do find fault with the front office, and I think many will agree, is in their PR abilities. The dysfunctional relationship between Padres President Sandy Alderson and Billy Werndl plus Darren Smith, hosts of the radio show Alderson frequents creates a public relations nightmare. The result is less of an interview and more of a grilling designed to trap Alderson into saying what meets the obvious negative bias the hosts hold toward the team. Alderson often responds in kind with an insulting, arrogant tone which is seems directed towards the broadcasters, but gives a poor impression towards the fans. It does make for controversial, attention grabbing radio, so I guess the hosts win the battle. But I digress.

Only thinly veiled in the media coverage of an emotional event like the possible departure of Trevor Hoffman is a search for truth. Each side gives their version of events, and just as in other aspects of life, the reality often lies somewhere in between. My interpretation of the events goes like this:

Trevor’s Side

• Hoffman received a 1 year offer of $4 million and team option for 2010 with no buyout, about $3.5 million less than his salary last year, which he saw as an insincere PR move.
• The club refused to allow Hoffman and agent Rick Thurman to negotiate with Padres owner John Moores.
• Sandy Alderson may have animosity towards Thurman, perhaps because of Thurman’s agenting style, or perhaps for another reason.
• Hoffman deserves special treatment from Moores due to Trevor’s icon status.

Front Office Side

• The team received neither approval or disapproval of the contract offer one month after the offer was made. They also were willing to negotiate the price of the deal.
• Moores hired Alderson for the exact purpose of distancing himself from baseball decisions, the team found a meeting with the owner inappropriate.
• It is possible that Moores was willing to meet with Hoffman to discuss the direction of the team, but not for contract negotiations or with Hoffman’s agent present.
• Thurman went public with negotiation details after the club asked to keep them private.
• After about a month with the offer on the table, the team took it off.

To me, the fault for booting the situation could go either way. My question is, who are we to judge the culpability for Hoffman’s departure? We’re outsiders! Even the people with fancy press passes and radio shows, the sources of our information, are outsiders. All they do is talk to those actually involved, then usually form an opinion based on who slanted the story the best, or go with the side they intended to believe from the beginning.

For whatever reason, even if it’s his own fault, I will be deeply saddened if Trevor Hoffman isn’t a Padre for the rest of his career. Like many people reading this, I grew up with Trevor as part of my life.

And you know what? Writing with the caps lock key stuck with lots of exclamation points doesn’t make anyone more of a fan than me. Neither does asking ill informed questions or giving ill informed rants on radio shows. That stuff doesn’t demonstrate intensity. It characterizes an emotionally fragile person with messed up priorities.

I’ll miss Trevor. But lets not kid ourselves about who we are and what we know.

Photo

Have you ever had two friends who dated each other? Two friends that both hung out with you in the same group, that you had many mutual friends with? Did they ever break up?

That’s what Jake Peavy and the Padres are doing.

As Mel pointed out, Peavy’s desires are all over the place. He wants to play on a contender, but he also wants to play on the Braves and Astros, and he wants to stay in San Diego. This we can easily chalk up to confusing. Break-ups are hard to go through. But then there are the comments his agent is making. Comments like:

“It’s a big decision,” said Axelrod, who noted a no-trade clause would have to be part of any trade. “You have to look at all the factors and moving parts. We’re usually pretty deliberate. … At times, (Peavy’s frustration) bubbled over. He’s a fiery competitor. You don’t want to take that out of him. You don’t want to tame that too much. But I heard Jake say it, I heard Brian (Giles) say it and I heard Trevor (Hoffman) say it —- they’re not that far away. I think if they kept (Mike) Cameron, (Geoff) Blum and (Doug) Brocail, they’re in it last year —- 84 games wins this division.”

Cooling off period for Peavy talks

Oof.

Much like the break-up of your friends, this has gotten ugly. Jake has always been one to tell Kevin Towers how to do his job/suggest better alternatives to his own teammates (like Kenny Lofton). I’m even surprised Jake’s agent didn’t throw Milton Bradley in everyone’s face. But those two aren’t done yet. They’re piling on:

“One of the things we will want to look at some point is, ‘Who are you giving up? How much are you weakening your team to make this deal?’” Axelrod said. “If Team X trades three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop to get Jake Peavy, that lessens their chance of being a successful team.”

Peavy throws a curveball into Padres’ trade talks with Braves

The specific player in question is Yunel Escobar, who is looking more and more like the centerpiece of a deal with Atlanta.

It was one thing when Jake told Towers what to do. But now he’s telling Frank Wren, the G.M. of the Braves (the team Jake is not on), how to do his job. What if Wren had a plan that didn’t involve Escobar? Jake’s all but gone from San Diego, but he’s also making it very difficult for the Padres to send him anywhere else.

It’s almost as if he’s playing a game of chicken with Towers. “Trade me for nothing or keep me. Your call.” The scary part is that Towers might actually blink.

Baseball is a perfect delicate flower that can do no wrong:

What if the scoring rules were changed so that, say, if a starter leaves after seven innings with a lead, the bullpen blows it, but the team regains the lead for good in its next at-bat, the official scorer has the discretion to award the win to the starter?

Baseball’s all-time saves leader did not think much of the idea.

“I think it’s trying to reinvent the wheel as far as statistics are concerned,” Padres closer Trevor Hoffman said. “It’s not the way statistics have been run thus far.”

SF Gate via Baseball Think Factory

Photo: SD Dirk

This is why blogs, or at least someone with backbone needs media access.  To ask, “Ok, yes, indeed, games have been scored this way for awhile.  But isn’t it still obviously, grossly, unfair and wrong?”  No?  Nobody’s going to ask that?

Just as funny is the way we bend over ass-backwards to make up for the complete crapulence of Wins and Saves.  Instead of using qualifiers “hard luck losses” and the like, can’t we just admit they were bad ideas to begin with and just fix the problem?

Why do I feel the need to ask so many rhetorical questions?

Bonus points: Leave a comment using only rhetorical questions.  Super bonus points if it’s extra snarky.